麦田每股投资入门

麦田在youtube上的直播分,原视频，https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5QJ58UUUaQ 以下为500字的内容总结，及所有文字整理稿件。

# 美股交易快速入门分享（00:00-02:17）

# 一、市场全景认知

市场结构
- 主要交易场所：纽约证券交易所（约2000家公司）、纳斯达克（约4000家公司），合计超6000家上市公司，分为大盘股（>100亿美元）、中盘股（20-100亿美元）、小盘股（3-20亿美元）、微盘股（<3亿美元）。
- 场外交易（OTC/Pink Sheet）：超1万家公司，99.99%为骗局，需绝对规避。
- 暗池交易（Dark Pool）：占每日交易量约50%，主要用于大宗交易（如公司回购、机构大额买卖），交易完成后1-2秒反馈价格。
核心影响因素
- 流动性与估值：市场核心驱动力。流动性可用NFCI指标观察（负值越高流动性越好）；估值可用巴菲特指标（股市总市值/GDP，当前209%，显著高估）。
- 六大关键因素：货币政策（美联储政策、会议纪要）、财政政策（政府支出与税收）、宏观数据（非农、CPI、PCE等）、市场价格行为（VIX恐慌指数、板块轮动、期权对冲）、突发事件、个股基本面。
- 关联市场：债券市场（10年期美债收益率为无风险利率基准）、外汇市场、大宗商品市场，均对美股产生间接影响。

# 二、交易的本质：数学而非金融

交易的核心逻辑
- 时间框架：交易需明确时间范围（短期<2周、波段2-8周、长期>3个月），避免跨框架操作，否则易混乱。
- 概率与期望值：交易是概率游戏，需通过“胜率×盈亏比”计算期望值，确保长期为正。例如：10次交易中3次盈利（胜率30%），每次盈利3元、亏损1元（盈亏比3:1），期望值为正（30%×3 - 70%×1 = 0.2）。
- 杠杆的必然性：几乎所有盈利交易者均使用杠杆（如期权、高频交易），关键是控制杠杆比例（建议<5倍）。
交易策略类型
- 趋势跟随：假设趋势持续，买入强势股（如动量策略），需尽早入场，依赖市场/板块趋势而非个股。
- 均值回归：假设价格极端后反转，寻找偏离均值3个标准差以上的标的（概率<0.2%），如超卖的价值股或超买的泡沫股。
分析方法
- 技术分析：传统指标（均线、RSI）有效性下降，建议仅用于止损（如ATR指标：1.5-2倍7日ATR为止损点）。
- 基本面分析：聚焦宏观叙事（市场当前故事）和板块轮动，个股需对比同行业估值（PE、营收增长率等）。
- 期权结构分析：未来核心方向，通过隐含波动率（IV）判断期权定价合理性，偏好低IV（<40）标的。

# 三、构建交易优势（Edge）

期权交易要点
- 期权本质：对时间的定价，买方拥有权利，卖方承担义务。核心影响因素：标的价格、时间衰减、隐含波动率（IV）。
- 推荐策略：
  - 避免0DTE（当日到期）和短期期权（<3个月），杠杆过高（10倍以上）且时间衰减快，风险难控。
  - 偏好长期期权（9-12个月，LEAPS），IV<40，兼顾杠杆与安全边际，追求“双击”（标的涨跌+IV变动均盈利）。
- 风险提示：勿碰裸卖期权（义务方风险无限），慎用短期期权，避免跟风交易（如追涨热门股）。
仓位管理
- 不对称性：构建“盈利时多赚、亏损时少亏”的仓位，如多空对冲（持有涨势股+空仓跌势股）。
- 止损与止盈：硬止损（ATR指标）与软止损（提前离场）结合，止盈参考盈亏比（如3:1）。
- 分散与集中：零售投资者建议聚焦2-5个板块，总持仓不超过10-15只个股，避免过度分散。
心态与纪律
- 接受亏损是常态，避免“赌一把”心态，通过记录每笔交易（胜率、盈亏比）迭代策略。
- 克服人性弱点：贪婪（过度杠杆）、恐惧（错过机会）、自负（拒绝止损）。

# 四、工具与学习资源

核心工具
- 基本面：SakeAlpha（个股财报与分析）、Financial Juice（实时新闻）。
- 筛选与分析：MarketInout（精准筛选标的，如偏离3个标准差的股票）、Treeway（板块/个股对比图表）。
推荐书籍与视频
- 书籍：《投资中最重要的事》（霍华德·马克斯）、《华尔街量化传奇》（量化策略解析）。
- 视频：Peter Bryant的交易系统讲解（B站有中文字幕）。

# 总结

交易的本质是通过数学概率构建长期正期望值，需理解市场结构、明确策略框架、控制风险（止损、杠杆、仓位），最终战胜自身弱点。建议从长期期权（LEAPS）和低波动率标的入手，逐步形成个人优势。

00:00

I see it's already full screen, sorry, this is my first time doing this. Let’s start this sharing today. The title is "A Quick Introduction to U.S. Stock Trading", so let me first briefly introduce myself. I used to work in the Internet industry, and then in recent years I have been specializing in US stock trading. I worked on many projects when I was working in the Internet industry, and one of the projects I worked on before investing in stocks was childcare.

00:00

我发现已经是全屏了，不好意思，这是我第一次做这个。我们开始今天的分享吧。标题是“美股交易快速入门”，所以先简单介绍一下我自己。我以前在互联网行业工作，近几年专职做美股交易。在投身股票投资之前，我在互联网行业参与过很多项目，其中一个是育儿相关的。

00:29

So you see, sometimes I like to swear on Twitter, which makes me seem like a plagiarist, but I am actually quite professional in parenting. I am familiar with children's illnesses, vaccinations, breastfeeding, etc. I have a relatively comprehensive understanding of these things. I am also quite professional in this area, but that is all in the past. Later, I devoted myself to trading US stocks full-time. During these five years, I mainly traded options and made several thousand transactions.

00:29

所以你们看，有时候我喜欢在推特上发些牢骚，这让我看起来像个愤青，但其实我在育儿方面还是挺专业的。我熟悉儿童疾病、疫苗接种、母乳喂养等等，在这方面有比较全面的了解，也算是个行家，但这些都是过去式了。后来我全身心投入到美股交易中，这五年主要做期权交易，累计交易了几千笔。

01:01

While I was trading, I also read a lot of books on US stock trading, so I had some theoretical knowledge and more practice. As we all know, during these five years, 2002 was a big bear market, while 2001, 2003 and 2004 were all big bull markets. During this period, I actually made money and lost money in the bull market, and I also made money and lost money in the bear market.

01:01

交易的同时，我也读了很多美股交易的书籍，所以具备一些理论知识，实践经验也比较丰富。众所周知，这五年里，2002年是大熊市，而2001、2003、2004年都是大牛市。在这段时间里，无论是牛市还是熊市，我都有赚有亏。

01:32

So I have experienced both bull and bear markets, and I feel like I have gone through both bull and bear markets. If we compare the stock market or trading to the learning process from elementary school to doctoral level KL2 to doctoral level, I think I am currently at the middle school stage. I have not yet reached that advanced level of trading, but I have basically seen the threshold and this area, and I am also a little more familiar with basic trading.

01:32

所以我既经历过牛市，也经历过熊市，算是饱经牛熊了。如果把股市或者交易比作从小学到博士的学习过程，我觉得自己目前处于中学阶段。还没达到交易的高级水平，但基本上已经看到门槛和这个领域的大概情况了，对基础交易也比较熟悉了。

02:09

So I think it is more objective to say that I am currently at the level of a middle school student. Before I share this with you, I must first make two statements. First of all, I don’t think I’m being polite. Some people say that my photos are old, which is absolutely a wrong judgment because the photos themselves were taken many years ago.

02:09

所以说自己目前是中学生水平，我觉得是比较客观的。在分享之前，我必须先声明两点。首先，不是我自谦或者客气，有人说我的照片很旧，这绝对是错误的判断，因为照片本身就是很多年前拍的。

02:34

First, what I said we are going to talk about today may be wrong. This is not because I am being modest or polite, it is indeed the case. Because I think everyone is actually like a blind man groping in the dark when it comes to trading. It's not just me. I think many great traders don't actually think that they have seen the truth about trading.

02:34

第一，我今天要讲的内容可能是错的。这不是谦虚或客气，事实确实如此。因为我觉得在交易这件事上，每个人其实都像在黑暗中摸索的盲人。不只是我，很多伟大的交易者其实也不认为自己已经洞悉了交易的真相。

02:53

I think we are all in the process of blind men groping in the dark, so what I say may be wrong. The second point that I want everyone to understand is that I am not a professional in finance and I do not have any relevant academic qualifications. Although I studied economics, I do not have the academic qualifications or work experience in finance, so what I am going to talk about today is just some personal sharing and is definitely not investment advice. Let me

02:53

我觉得我们都在黑暗中摸索，所以我说的可能有误。第二点，希望大家明白，我不是金融专业人士，没有任何相关学历。虽然我学过经济学，但没有金融方面的学历或工作经验，所以今天所说的只是个人分享，绝对不是投资建议。我来

03:18

briefly talk about why I want to share this. The first one is that at the end of March, I posted a message on Twitter, saying that if Q1 could double, I would make a share. The result was that it doubled, and then I kept dragging it on for a whole quarter, and ended up with no profit in Q2. I thought I should fulfill my wish quickly, otherwise what would I do with my profit in the second half of the year? The

03:18

简单说说为什么要做这次分享。第一，3月底我在推特上发过消息，说如果第一季度能翻倍，我就做一次分享。结果真的翻倍了，后来拖了一整个季度，第二季度还没盈利。我想还是赶紧兑现承诺，不然下半年盈利了怎么办？

03:43

second point is, to be frank, if you make money in the U.S. stock market, it doesn’t affect my ability to make money, so I won’t keep it to myself. I will share whatever I have learned. Another point is that I really do like sharing. You may have seen from my Twitter that I really like communicating, sharing, and discussing, and sometimes even arguing.

03:43

第二，坦白说，你们在美股市场赚钱，不会影响我的赚钱能力，所以我不会藏着掖着。学到的东西都会分享出来。另外，我确实喜欢分享。你们从我的推特上可能也能看出来，我很喜欢交流、分享、讨论，有时甚至会争论。

04:09

Another thing is that I do have some energy recently, so I just treat this matter as a wish, and I will talk about it in full today. It may take a little while. If you have something to do, it’s okay. You don’t need to watch this live broadcast because I will save it. This Ding Ding will have a live broadcast save, and then I will put it on YouTube.

04:09

还有就是，最近确实有些精力，就把这事当成一个心愿，今天好好讲讲。可能会讲一会儿。如果你们有事，没关系，不用看直播，因为我会保存。这次钉钉直播会有回放，之后我也会放到YouTube上。

04:30

Before I start, I think for us retail investors, there are actually only two ways to make money. There is one method that I strongly recommend, which is for everyone to make long-term fixed investments. Long term means more than five years, and generally more than ten years is best. If you want to make a fixed investment, you should invest every certain period of time, and it is best to invest once a month.

04:30

开始之前，我觉得对我们散户来说，其实只有两种赚钱方式。有一种方法我强烈推荐，就是大家做长期定投。长期指五年以上，一般十年以上最好。如果要定投，就要每隔一段时间投一次，最好是每个月投一次。

04:52

Fixed investment means failure of the market index. But I don’t recommend regular investment in QQQ, because regular investment in Nasdaq is not actually considered a large-cap index. If you fail, the S&P 500, which truly covers US stocks, is more comprehensive.

04:52

定投指的是对市场指数进行投资。但我不建议定投QQQ（纳斯达克100指数基金），因为定投纳斯达克其实不算大盘指数。如果要投，真正覆盖美股的标普500更全面。

05:11

This method is actually the most suitable for retail investors to make money without doing anything. Basically, the annualized rate of return is about 11%. If the dividend yield is added, it will be a little higher, probably around 12%. This will definitely outperform bank deposits, so this is my strong recommendation.

05:11

这种方法其实最适合散户躺赚。基本上年化回报率在11%左右，如果加上股息率，会高一点，大概12%左右。这肯定比银行存款强，所以这是我的强烈推荐。

05:32

Many retail investors think, is there any other way? I am not satisfied with an annualized return of 11%. I think there is only one way, which is to learn how to trade. But trading, which is what we are doing now, actually costs a lot of time and money, and is very, very hard work. In fact, in essence, trading is really like a financial migrant worker. His life of moving bricks every day is actually very boring and stressful.

05:32

很多散户会想，还有别的办法吗？对11%的年化回报不满意。我觉得只有一种办法，就是学习交易。但交易，也就是我们现在做的这件事，其实要耗费大量时间和金钱，而且非常非常辛苦。其实本质上，交易真的就像金融民工，每天搬砖的生活其实很枯燥，压力也很大。

06:02

So is it possible that we have another option? For example, if I buy technology stocks, such as AI stocks, at the end of 2021 or 2022, then I may make a profit in a few years. Everyone has heard of this kind of thing. I hope everyone can understand it after I share it today.

06:02

那有没有可能还有别的选择呢？比如2021年底或2022年买科技股，比如AI股，几年后可能就盈利了。这种事大家都听说过。希望今天分享完，大家能明白其中的道理。

06:23

That is to say, such pie-in-the-sky things do exist, but they are indeed low-probability events and you cannot use them as a strategy for making profits. Actually, my initial motivation for sharing this was that I used to lose money all the time. I used to trade A-shares many years ago, and the reason I lost money was that I felt I was always bullied in the A-shares.

06:23

也就是说，这种天上掉馅饼的事确实存在，但确实是小概率事件，不能当成盈利策略。其实我最初分享的动机是，我以前总是亏钱。很多年前做A股，亏钱的原因是觉得在A股总是被欺负。

06:50

Later, I started trading US stocks for almost five years. I started in 2020. When I started trading, I was still losing money. Later, I studied hard and then one day I had an epiphany.

06:50

后来开始做美股，快五年了。2020年开始的，刚开始做的时候还是亏。后来努力学习，某天突然顿悟了。

07:05

After I had this epiphany, I really came to believe that most people who trade stocks have never realized that the essence of trading or stock trading is not a financial one. It is not about which company we bought, its earnings, or its future prospects. No, that is just the surface.

07:05

顿悟之后，我才真正相信，大多数做股票的人从未意识到，交易或炒股的本质不是金融。不是我们买了哪家公司，它的收益如何，未来前景怎样。不，这些都只是表面。

07:23

If we follow the first principles, this is actually Aristotle's point of view. Musk just said that he prefers to brag about this point of view. According to the first principles, the essence of trading is definitely mathematics. That is to say, I think retail investors have never realized that stock trading is essentially a mathematical matter, not a financial one. So today I want to explain what I believe to be the truth.

07:23

如果遵循第一性原理——这其实是亚里士多德的观点，马斯克也总喜欢吹嘘这个观点——根据第一性原理，交易的本质绝对是数学。也就是说，我觉得散户从未意识到，炒股本质上是数学问题，不是金融问题。所以今天我想把我认为的真相讲清楚。

07:55

If I were to share this, I would probably divide it into three parts. The first part is that if we want to trade and invest in stocks, then what exactly is this market? I will give a panoramic description of this market. The second part is to say, when we do trading or stock speculation, what exactly is the transaction itself, which is what I mentioned above, why I think the essence of trading is not finance but mathematics. The

07:55

如果要分享，我大概会分成三部分。第一部分是，我们要做股票交易和投资，这个市场到底是什么样的？我会对这个市场做一个全景描述。第二部分是说，我们做交易或炒股时，交易本身到底是什么，也就是我刚才提到的，为什么我认为交易的本质不是金融而是数学。

08:17

final part is forming your edge. What is edge? It means your stable money-making strategy or what your advantage is. I think if everyone spends so much time listening to this sharing class and is able to understand the market and trading, and can build your own edge through my sharing, then I think my sharing is very worthwhile. So today we will focus on three major aspects. Let’s talk about the first part first, which is the understanding of this market. To put it

08:17

最后一部分是构建你的优势（edge）。什么是edge？就是你稳定的赚钱策略或者你的优势是什么。我觉得如果大家花这么多时间听这次分享，能理解市场和交易，并且通过我的分享能构建自己的优势，那我的分享就很有价值了。所以今天我们重点讲三个方面。先讲第一部分，对这个市场的理解。大致来说，

08:50

generally, there are about 2,000 companies on the New York Stock Exchange and more than 4,000 companies on the Nasdaq, which make up the more than 6,000 companies that are listed companies that we trade every day. In terms of classification, they are actually very standard. You should remember this, because I will talk about it later, when you use Yingzi algorithm, it will refer to these.

08:50

纽约证券交易所约有2000家公司，纳斯达克有4000多家公司，构成了我们每天交易的6000多家上市公司。分类上其实很标准。大家要记住这一点，因为后面我会讲到，用影子算法的时候会涉及到这些。

09:19

For large-scale ones, the standard is more than 10 billion US dollars. What we talked about today, if we talk about money, we only talk about US dollars, not RMB, and the amount is more than 10 billion. Then the medium-sized ones are between 2 billion and 10 billion, the small ones are generally between 300 million and 20 billion, and the micro ones are below 300 million.

09:19

大盘股的标准是100亿美元以上。我们今天说的金额，只算美元，不算人民币，100亿以上的是大盘股。然后中盘股是20亿到100亿之间，小盘股一般是3亿到20亿之间，微盘股是3亿以下。

09:37

If you only buy the underlying stocks here, in fact, many people are willing to trade these small and micro stocks, because in this way there may be room for future growth. It is not easy for a large company to double its capital, but it is easy for a small company with originally capital of 1.5 billion to double its capital to 3 billion.

09:37

如果只买这里的标的股票，其实很多人愿意交易这些小微盘股，因为这样未来可能有成长空间。大公司翻倍不容易，但原本15亿市值的小公司涨到30亿就很容易。

09:54

If you have a company with a value of 30 billion, it will be difficult to increase it to 60 billion. Therefore, many people who trade common stocks will trade small and micro stocks. However, when you trade individual stock options, you generally don’t consider small and micro stocks. Why? Because the slippage of this option or the IV of this option is very difficult to calculate.

09:54

如果一家公司300亿市值，要涨到600亿就很难。所以很多做普通股交易的人会做小微盘股。但交易个股期权时，一般不会考虑小微盘股。为什么？因为这类期权的滑点或者隐含波动率（IV）很难计算。

10:15

Instead of doing this, you might as well buy the real stock. So I do options trading a lot, but when it comes to individual stocks, I almost never trade micro and small stocks. I basically only trade mid- to large-cap stocks. This is just the division of more than 6,000 companies on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. In fact, when we trade every day, a large part of it goes into the Dark Pool. What is a dark pool?

10:15

与其这样，还不如直接买股票。所以我做期权交易很多，但个股方面，几乎从不做小微盘股，基本只做中大盘股。这只是纽交所和纳斯达克6000多家公司的划分。其实我们每天交易时，很大一部分是在暗池（Dark Pool）里进行的。什么是暗池？

10:45

It is actually Nick Nyerson's block trade. There are many times when large buyers, such as Apple, repurchase more than 100 billion shares a year. When they repurchase, it is impossible for them to put out an order for retail investors to sell stocks and buy them. This is very inconvenient. So they are all large-scale transactions, directly buying millions of shares in one go. This area itself is not traded directly through Nasdaq and NYSE, but through a dark pool system.

10:45

其实就是大宗交易。很多时候，像苹果这样的大买家，一年回购超过1000亿股票。他们回购时，不可能挂单让散户卖股票给他们，太不方便了。所以都是大规模交易，直接一次性买几百万股。这部分交易不通过纳斯达克和纽交所直接进行，而是通过暗池系统。

11:16

But after the transaction is completed, the price will be returned in about one to two seconds. So if you use trading software to look at the transactions on a certain day, you will see that the transaction volume was very small, but suddenly there is an enlarged column. This means that a dark pool transaction may have been completed one or two seconds ago. So what is the other big transaction in dark pool trading? It is the so-called order flow trading which is quite popular nowadays.

11:16

但交易完成后，价格会在一两秒左右反馈出来。所以如果你用交易软件看某天的交易，会发现成交量很小，突然有一个放大的柱子，这说明一两秒前可能有一笔暗池交易完成了。暗池交易的另一大交易是什么？就是现在很火的所谓订单流交易。

11:38

Order flow trading means that, for example, whether you use Robinson or domestic brokerages such as Tiger, they do not actually give the orders directly to the stock exchange. They actually match them internally. This internal matching is called order flow, and they use the dark pool system. Well, I will talk about the issue of the amount of funds later, so you can understand that in addition to daily transactions, there is also a dark pool.

11:38

订单流交易是说，比如你用罗宾汉或者老虎证券等国内券商，它们其实不会把订单直接给到交易所，而是内部撮合。这种内部撮合就叫订单流，用的是暗池系统。资金量的问题我后面再讲，大家知道除了日常交易，还有暗池就行了。

12:05

Then there is another part, which everyone must absolutely avoid, which is the so-called over-the-counter transaction, that is, OTC and PK, which is called the pink sheet system. In this area, there are more than 10,000 so-called listed companies, all of which are part of the pink sheet system. Don't touch them, as they are basically scammers. I'm not saying basically, 99.99% of them are scammers.

12:05

还有一部分，大家绝对要避开，就是所谓的场外交易（OTC）和粉单市场（pink sheet system）。这个领域有超过1万家所谓的上市公司，都属于粉单系统。别碰，基本上都是骗子。我不是说“基本上”，99.99%都是骗子。

12:24

Especially the scammers in Southeast Asia like to do this business. For example, they set up a so-called Nasdaq-listed company, but in fact it is listed on the OTC system. It is not a formal listing, and they deceive people, usually engaging in pyramid schemes. So many people in China have been fooled, thinking that they have invested in a Nasdaq, but in fact it is all a pink sheet system.

12:24

尤其是东南亚的骗子喜欢做这个生意。比如他们搞一个所谓的纳斯达克上市公司，其实是在OTC系统挂牌，不是正式上市，然后骗人，通常是搞传销。所以国内很多人上当，以为投了纳斯达克的公司，其实都是粉单系统的。

12:44

In short, when it comes to the OTC and PK pink sheet system, no matter how much others praise it, you should not trade it or touch it. So in this market, we actually mainly trade with 6,000 companies. What is the approximate market value of these 6,000 companies? The latest data is approximately 62 trillion, and the daily transactions are approximately 800 billion to 1 trillion.

12:44

总之，涉及OTC和粉单系统的，不管别人吹得多好，都不要交易，不要碰。所以在这个市场里，我们主要交易的其实是这6000家公司。这6000家公司的总市值大概多少？最新数据是约62万亿美元，日交易量约8000亿到1万亿美元。

13:08

The 800 billion to 1 trillion is divided into two parts. Basically, the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq account for 400 billion, and the over-the-counter shore pool accounts for another 400 billion. Why did I just mention the shore pool? So when you look at the data, you will know that this system actually accounts for a very large proportion. It accounts for almost half of the transactions, which means that half of the transactions are completed by the shore pool every day. The

13:08

这8000亿到1万亿美元分两部分，纽交所和纳斯达克大概占4000亿，场外暗池占另外4000亿。我刚才为什么提暗池？看数据就知道，这个系统占比很大，几乎占一半交易，也就是说每天一半的交易是通过暗池完成的。

13:31

total value of U.S. stocks is now 62 trillion. Of course, what does this mean? It is equivalent to more than twice the U.S. GDP of less than 3 billion last year, which is 207.8%. This is the latest data in July. Let's understand what this data is. In addition to trading stocks, we now also do options trading because many people are doing it. After everyone does options trading, there are about 50 million options every day.

13:31

美股总市值现在62万亿，这意味着什么？相当于去年美国GDP（不到30万亿美元）的两倍多，207.8%。这是7月的最新数据。大家了解一下这个数据。除了股票交易，现在很多人也做期权交易，每天大概有5000万张期权成交。

14:03

Because you have made options, there will be someone called a market maker, who is your opponent. You buy an option, and it is sold to you by a market maker. Generally speaking, it is sold to you by a market maker. The market maker needs to remain neutral. After it sells you the option, it is actually equivalent to, for example, if you are long, then it means it has to go short.

14:03

因为做了期权，就会有做市商，他们是你的对手方。你买期权，是做市商卖给你的。一般来说，都是做市商卖给你。做市商需要保持中性，卖给你期权后，比如你做多，它就相当于要做空。

14:29

In order to remain neutral, it has to buy stocks to offset the loss. Therefore, a considerable portion of this part of funds has probably flowed into the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. This is part of the funds that are caused by options and are used to hedge options. Finally, there is another part of the funds which is the so-called stock index futures, which is what we often call ES. It

14:29

为了保持中性，它就得买股票来对冲风险。所以这部分资金有相当一部分可能流入了纽交所和纳斯达克，这是期权带来的、用于对冲期权的资金。最后，还有一部分资金是所谓的股指期货，就是我们常说的ES。

14:59

is mainly based on S&P futures, and its daily trading volume is approximately 50 to 100 billion. So after these people buy futures, they all have to complete the transaction. I am introducing this in the hope that everyone can establish a rough outline, which is what we are facing now. When we trade every day, in fact, about 30% of our funds are retail investors' funds. Retail

14:59

主要以标普期货为基础，日交易量约500到1000亿。这些人买了期货后，都要完成交易。我介绍这些是希望大家建立一个大致的轮廓，就是我们现在面对的情况。我们每天交易时，其实约30%的资金是散户的。散户

15:32

investors are now very powerful. Sometimes they can even reach 50%, such as in recent times. In recent times, the reason why we say that the market is driven by retail investors is because it is indeed the case. Then there is another doubtful point, that is, among our current 100 billion yuan transactions, a lot of them are leveraged, and this part of funds probably accounts for about one-third.

15:32

现在势力很大，有时甚至能达到50%，比如最近。最近我们说市场由散户驱动，确实是这样。还有一个疑问是，我们现在1000亿的交易中，很多是加了杠杆的，这部分资金大概占三分之一。

16:04

Understand what this is. In fact, the one trillion transactions per share every day are relatively complex in themselves, and their fragility is getting higher and higher, that is, their leverage is getting higher and higher. Another very important point is that index trading affects each stock. We all know that the S&P 500 is an index made up of 500 companies.

16:04

明白这一点。其实每天1万亿美元的股票交易本身就比较复杂，脆弱性越来越高，也就是杠杆越来越高。另一个很重要的点是，指数交易影响个股。我们都知道标普500是由500家公司组成的指数。

16:29

Our conventional understanding is that these 500 companies, for example, Apple rises today and falls next year, and they form different prices every day, and finally form the S&P 500 index, the SPX index. But what is actually happening now? It is because after people buy the futures of this index, they must hedge it and buy the corresponding stocks. Therefore, because you buy futures, you are buying an index, which in turn affects the prices of individual stocks. It

16:29

我们常规理解是，这500家公司，比如苹果今天涨、明天跌，每天形成不同的价格，最后形成标普500指数（SPX）。但现在实际情况是，人们买了这个指数的期货后，必须对冲，买相应的股票。所以因为你买了期货，买了指数，反过来影响个股价格。

16:59

does not mean that the price of individual stocks affects the price of the index. So I think this is a problem that novices can easily overlook, that is to say, the index itself is actually very, very important. It is far more important than the individual stocks you trade, because the index can affect individual stocks.

16:59

不是个股价格影响指数价格。所以我觉得这是新手容易忽略的问题，就是指数本身其实非常非常重要，远比你交易的个股重要，因为指数能影响个股。

17:22

In this market, who are the main players in trading every day? I think the main ones are, what I drew circles around, actually there are two red circles at play, one is retail investors, and the other is hedge funds. Because their sizes are similar now. Retail investors generally account for between 15% and 30%, and hedge funds also account for between 15% and 30%. Then these two funds are actually the two main forces and two roles that constitute daily transactions.

17:22

这个市场里，每天交易的主力是谁？我觉得主要是我圈出来的，其实有两个主力，一个是散户，一个是对冲基金。因为现在它们的规模差不多。散户一般占15%-30%，对冲基金也占15%-30%。这两股资金其实是构成日常交易的两大主力。

17:58

Then there is another real role. What does it buy every day? It is some active long-term investment companies, which also buy every day. It is generally non-only, that is, it only goes long. They generally don't go short. It will only go long. At most, if it doesn't look good, it will just go flat.

17:58

还有一个角色是真正的长期活跃投资公司，它们每天也买入，一般只做多，不做空，最多不看好时平仓。

18:14

So why did the seven giants all start to fall in February this year? It is because active funds have been balancing the positions of these seven giants since February and January. But on a daily basis, although active funds will still buy, they actually have little impact on prices. In fact, the most decisive factor in daily market conditions is the competition between retail investors and hedge funds.

18:14

那今年2月七大巨头为什么都开始跌？因为活跃资金从1月、2月开始对这七大巨头进行仓位平衡。但日常来看，虽然活跃资金还在买，对价格影响其实不大。其实日常行情最决定性的因素是散户和对冲基金的博弈。

18:46

Of course, hedge funds themselves are very complex. There are many types of them, including quantitative, CTA, and high-frequency. I will not go into details. Anyway, this kind of fund can do both long and short trading, and it competes with retail investors every day, thus forming the daily trading situation. There is

18:46

当然，对冲基金本身很复杂，有量化、CTA、高频等很多类型，我就不细说了。总之这类基金可以做多做空，每天和散户博弈，形成日常的交易局面。

19:01

also a considerable portion of what are called passive funds. Passive funds are a bit like this. Because I am from Sichuan, there is a kind of mahjong in Sichuan called buying horses. There are originally four people playing mahjong, but then there are five. The other person just buys on the side and bets on one person to win, but you don't participate. Passive funds are like this. They just buy indexes at a fixed ratio every day.

19:01

还有相当一部分是被动基金。被动基金有点像四川的“买马”麻将，本来四个人打，来了第五个，就在旁边押注某个人赢，不参与打牌。被动基金就是这样，每天按固定比例买指数。

19:23

So you can basically ignore it, that is to say, for each stock player you always have to look at retail investors and hedge funds. Then sometimes, at critical moments, especially in the medium and long term, active funds also play a certain role. We just said that each share is divided into so many parts, with more than 6,000 companies. How should it be divided? Generally speaking, people will divide it into eleven major industry sectors.

19:23

所以基本可以忽略，也就是说，对每个股票交易者来说，主要看散户和对冲基金。不过有时在关键时刻，尤其是中长期，活跃资金也起一定作用。我们刚说美股有6000多家公司，怎么划分？一般来说，分为11个主要行业板块。

19:54

You may also understand this. What is the key? There is actually a strong correlation between these eleven sectors. Some are positively correlated, some are negatively correlated, and this correlation is dynamic. For example, I recently wrote this PPT. For example, the technology stocks and communications sectors have always been strongly positively correlated. But what’s interesting is that, please look at the technology and energy sectors. When I wrote this, the technology and energy sectors were actually positively correlated, and at a relatively high level.

19:54

大家可能也了解。关键是这11个板块之间有很强的相关性，有的正相关，有的负相关，而且相关性是动态的。比如我最近做的PPT里，科技股和通信板块一直是强正相关。但有意思的是，看科技和能源板块，我做PPT时，它们其实是正相关，而且程度不低。

20:23

But historically, the technology and energy sectors tend to be strongly negatively correlated. It's just that because of the recent war, energy has also risen a bit, so when technology stocks are rising, they show a positive correlation. Generally speaking, its arithmetic is divided into eleven major sections, which are all what you need to pay attention to every day.

20:23

但历史上，科技和能源板块往往是强负相关。只是因为最近的战争，能源也涨了些，所以科技股涨的时候，它们呈现正相关。总的来说，这11个主要板块都是大家每天需要关注的。

20:44

But it is not enough to just look at these eleven sections. What is more important? Each section has many subdivided vertical sections. For this vertical plate, you can divide it in various ways. Let me give you an example. You can see on the left that there are about forty of them, and I myself have about eighty or ninety. You can also design this according to your own needs. Let

20:44

但只看这11个板块不够，更重要的是每个板块有很多细分的垂直板块。这个垂直板块可以有多种划分方式。比如左边大概有40个，我自己划分了80到90个，大家也可以根据自己的需求设计。

21:09

me give you an example. For example, the light energy and petroleum sector is actually divided into upstream exploration, midstream transportation, and downstream refining. It actually also includes oilfield services, which is the provision of equipment, oil pumping and well drilling.

21:09

举个例子，光能和石油板块其实分为上游勘探、中游运输、下游炼化，还包括油田服务，也就是提供设备、抽油和钻井等。

21:26

This area can be divided into four sectors, and each sector will have an ETF, which means a subdivided sector. Similarly, when you research U.S. stocks and you are researching these 6,000 companies, there are also various so-called factors. Factor means that you choose a factor, and after setting this factor, you choose stocks that meet these factors to pass on to a group.

21:26

这个领域可以分成4个板块，每个板块都有对应的ETF，就是细分板块。同样，研究美股这6000家公司时，还有各种所谓的因子（factor）。因子就是选一个标准，设定后，把符合的股票归为一组。

21:54

In fact, whether it is the subdivision of sectors or the subdivision of factors, it is difficult to study 6,000 companies. You have to use brute force to break it down into different parts. What is the most important reason? It is to study the melting of this sector, because the melting of this sector is a very, very important reason for the changes in US stock prices.

21:54

其实无论是板块细分还是因子细分，研究6000家公司很难，必须用蛮力拆分成不同部分。最重要的原因是研究板块的“轮动”，因为板块轮动是美股价格变化的非常重要的原因。

22:26

All the time, we do all the research, including sectors, sub-industries, and factors, the final goal is to analyze the melting of the sectors and analyze the price trend. There is another point you can understand, which is actually not particularly important, that is, there is something called market width. Market breadth is meant to reflect whether the market as a whole is healthy.

22:26

我们做的所有研究，包括板块、子行业、因子，最终目的都是分析板块轮动和价格趋势。还有一点大家可以了解，不是特别重要，就是市场宽度（market breadth），用来反映整个市场是否健康。

22:56

It actually takes the 11 major sectors and then takes into account the proportion of stock prices closing above the 20-day moving average for more than 20 days. If all of them exceed the proportion, then it is 100%. That's what it means, which is 100 points. Is

22:56

它结合11个主要板块，看股价连续20天收在20日均线以上的比例，如果都超过，就是100分。

23:10

n't the final total 1100 points? If the width is less than 200 points, it means that basically all stocks are below their 20-day moving average, which means that the market is actually very weak now, and there may be a reversal. On the other hand, if it is higher than 900 points, it means that all stocks are basically above the 20-day moving average, which means that the market may reverse.

23:10

总分不就是1100分吗？如果宽度低于200分，说明基本上所有股票都在20日均线以下，市场很弱，可能反转。反之，高于900分，说明所有股票基本在20日均线上方，市场可能反转。

23:34

I will take a look at it occasionally, just to understand the concept of market width. This is a relatively basic concept. There are many indicators to indicate market width, all of which are to show whether a rising trend is healthy.

23:34

我偶尔会看一下，了解市场宽度的概念就行。这是个比较基础的概念，有很多指标表示市场宽度，都是为了显示上涨趋势是否健康。

23:53

If we trade stocks, the more important point is that we are not in an isolated stock market. Although you only trade stocks and I only trade stocks, but in fact, behind us we have the first larger bond market, which is actually a little bigger than the stock market. There is also a foreign exchange market, which is the global foreign exchange.

23:53

如果我们做股票交易，更重要的是我们不是在一个孤立的股市里。虽然你只做股票，我只做股票，但实际上，我们背后有更大的债券市场，比股市还大一点。还有外汇市场，全球外汇。

24:08

It is about 1 trillion US dollars per share, the bond market is about 1 trillion, and the foreign exchange is higher. Because of settlement reasons, the foreign exchange is actually not that high. Another large part is global commodities, with about 300 billion traded every day. The most important among them is U.S. Treasury bonds. Why? Because U.S. Treasury bonds are basically traded by institutions, so they can better reflect the situation of the U.S. capital market.

24:08

股票每天约1万亿美元交易，债券市场约1万亿，外汇更高，但因为结算原因，实际没那么高。另一大部分是全球大宗商品，每天约3000亿交易。其中最重要的是美国国债。为什么？因为美国国债基本是机构交易，能更好反映美国资本市场的情况。

24:33

There is a saying that U.S. bonds are the big brother and U.S. stocks are just the little brother, or it can be said that U.S. bonds are played by smart money, while U.S. stocks are played by the money of many retail investors. There is some truth to this, as U.S. debt can more accurately reflect the current fundamental situation. The

24:33

有种说法，美债是大哥，美股只是小弟，或者说美债是聪明钱在玩，美股是很多散户的钱在玩。有一定道理，美债能更准确反映当前的基本面情况。

24:49

most important thing in all U.S. debt transactions is the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which is the basis of all financial assets. When we look at the yield of a stock, or the IVA of an option we trade, etc., there is an algorithm in all of them. All algorithms have a factor in the source of the Treasury yield, which is the risk-free rate of return.

24:49

所有美债交易中，最重要的是10年期美债收益率，它是所有金融资产的基础。我们看股票的收益率，或者交易期权的隐含波动率等，里面都有算法，所有算法都有国债收益率这个因子，也就是无风险收益率。

25:19

How is the treasury bond yield formed? It is essentially a market transaction, formed by the market buying and selling of 10-year treasury bonds, and it has an inverse relationship with the 10-year treasury bonds. This is actually very easy to understand. If more and more people buy government bonds and the price of government bonds becomes lower and lower, its yield will become higher and higher.

25:19

国债收益率怎么形成的？本质是市场交易，由10年期国债的买卖形成，和国债价格成反比。很好理解，买国债的人越多，国债价格越低，收益率就越高。

25:36

Treasury yields are the basis of all financial assets. One point here is that when people talk about the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, does that mean that Treasury yields will fall? No. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, it doesn't cut this; it just has a certain impact on short-term interest rates.

25:36

国债收益率是所有金融资产的基础。这里有一点，人们说美联储降息，是不是国债收益率就会降？不是。美联储降息，降的不是这个，只是对短期利率有一定影响。

25:56

However, it is not necessarily positively correlated with long-term government bond yields and may be negatively correlated. So we can’t say that just because we see that the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates, should we short the Treasury yield or go long on Treasury bonds? I think this is completely uncertain. This section is to let everyone know that our daily transactions are not just in the stock market. Our entire background also includes the bond market, foreign exchange, and commodities. What I

25:56

但和长期国债收益率不一定正相关，可能负相关。所以不能说看到美联储要降息，就做空国债收益率或做多国债，这完全不确定。这部分是让大家知道，我们日常交易不只是股市，整个背景还包括债市、外汇和大宗商品。

26:33

just said was equivalent to giving everyone an understanding that the U.S. stock market is like drawing a very rough map. In fact, what is the final point I want to focus on? What are the factors that affect the US stock market in our transactions? The core is two points. One is liquidity, that is, how much money is moving in the US stock market? The second point is valuation, which is actually emotion.

26:33

我刚才说的相当于给大家画了个大概的地图。其实我想强调的最终点是，交易中影响美股的因素核心有两点：一是流动性，也就是美股市场有多少资金在流动；二是估值，其实就是情绪。

27:01

That is to say, if we are more optimistic about the economy, I am willing to give a higher valuation; if I am more pessimistic about the market, I may give a lower valuation. So in essence, no matter how the U.S. stock market changes, the core point is that liquidity and valuation determine the price factors of U.S. stocks.

27:01

也就是说，对经济越乐观，愿意给的估值越高；对市场越悲观，给的估值可能越低。所以本质上，无论美股怎么变，核心是流动性和估值决定美股的价格因素。

27:22

Specifically speaking, there are six major points in the end. This picture is actually very important. In fact, if you use technical analysis to trade stocks, I think you also need to understand this chart; and if you use fundamentals to trade stocks, I basically analyze around these six points every day. The

27:22

具体来说，最终有六大点。这张图其实很重要，就算你用技术分析炒股，我觉得也需要理解这张图；用基本面炒股的话，我每天基本都围绕这六点分析。

27:42

first and most important point is monetary policy, which is the various policies issued every day. It is actually reflected in the minutes of the meeting. It is not just chess, but also includes meeting minutes, Powell’s speech, songs, Haiyin school, and dot plots. These are all monetary policies. The

27:42

第一点，也是最重要的，是货币政策，就是每天发布的各种政策，体现在会议纪要里。不只是政策本身，还包括会议纪要、鲍威尔讲话、点阵图等，这些都是货币政策。

27:59

second point is fiscal policy. In fact, in the past, it was mainly the situation of the Ministry of Finance, and its impact was not very large. But it has changed in the Trump era and has become a huge impact, exceeding monetary policy. Trump is shouting orders every day, and he changes every day. Finance Minister Bessant is also very unreliable and his changes are also very drastic. In the past six months, he has 100% overturned his original fiscal policy.

27:59

第二点是财政政策。过去主要是财政部的情况，影响不大，但特朗普时代变了，影响变得巨大，超过了货币政策。特朗普每天发号施令，还总变。财政部长贝桑特也很不靠谱，变动也很剧烈，过去半年把原来的财政政策完全推翻了。

28:30

So now the factor of fiscal policy is actually also very important, but it was not as important as monetary policy. But now it has surpassed monetary policy, and this is also something that needs to be analyzed every day. The third is macro data. We generally call macro data hard data or primary data and secondary data. The

28:30

所以现在财政政策这个因素其实也很重要，以前不如货币政策重要，现在超过了，也是每天需要分析的。第三是宏观数据，我们一般叫硬数据或一级数据、二级数据。

28:44

three most important primary data are the non-agricultural data released every month, the CPI in the middle of each month and the PCE at the end of the month, which are used to monitor inflation. There

28:44

最重要的三个一级数据是每月发布的非农数据、月中的CPI和月末的PCE，用来监测通胀。

28:57

is another one that is announced at any time, which is GDP, but it is a little weaker. In fact, it is updated once every quarter, but there is something called real-time GDP, called GDP-Low, which is updated in real time and can only be used for prediction. These data are relatively important. They are primary data, that is, hard data, which can definitely affect the trend of US stocks.

28:57

还有一个随时公布的是GDP，但影响力稍弱。其实每季度更新一次，但有个实时GDP（GDP-Low），实时更新，只能用来预测。这些数据比较重要，是一级数据（硬数据），肯定会影响美股走势。

29:19

Secondary data, such as Michigan's consumer confidence index and new housing starts data, are still very important and you need to look at them. There are also indicators such as the leading index, which predicts the economic situation in the United States and is said to be six months ahead of the actual economic situation. It can show whether the United States is entering a recession, and similar indicators. You can find out, but they are all secondary data, which are not as important as the primary hard data.

29:19

二级数据，比如密歇根消费者信心指数、新屋开工数据，也很重要，需要看。还有领先指标等，预测美国经济情况，据说比实际经济情况提前六个月，能显示美国是否进入衰退，这类指标。大家可以了解，但都是二级数据，不如一级硬数据重要。

29:48

These data also have an impact on this. Fourthly, the biggest influence on daily life is actually the price behavior of the market itself. The price behavior of the market itself is very complex. I have sorted it out a bit here and there are several major blocks. The first large one is VIX, which is the so-called panic index. What does the fear index actually mean? It is the market's expectation of the possible implied volatility of the S&P 500 in the next month.

29:48

这些数据也有影响。第四，对日常影响最大的其实是市场自身的价格行为，很复杂。我整理了几个主要部分。第一大块是VIX，所谓的恐慌指数。恐慌指数其实是市场对未来一个月标普500可能的隐含波动率的预期。

30:20

Look at the VIX, it’s around 16 recently. If VIX is equal to 20, it means that its continuous volatility in the next month is around 20%, and it also means that the daily volatility is around 1.26. This is in the range of one standard deviation. In other words, the VIX itself is a measure of the market's potential volatility of the S&P 500 in the future, that is, the VIX.

30:20

看最近VIX在16左右。如果VIX等于20，说明未来一个月的连续波动率在20%左右，日波动率在1.26左右，这在一个标准差范围内。也就是说，VIX本身是衡量市场对标普500未来潜在波动率的指标。

31:04

This is actually an extremely important indicator. Let me give you an example. If we look at the trading level from elementary school students to doctoral students, then the understanding of VIX is basically at the high school level. Then you can trade VIX, which is the so-called volatility trading, which is at the university level. I am basically at the junior high school level now. I have a general understanding of it, but I haven't really started to understand it yet.

31:04

这其实是个极其重要的指标。举个例子，如果把交易水平比作从小学到博士，对VIX的理解基本在高中水平。能交易VIX，也就是所谓的波动率交易，是大学水平。我现在基本是初中水平，有个大概了解，还没真正深入。

31:29

This is VIX. It is very important and I have specially marked it. The second thing is that we just talked about and repeatedly talked about the rotation of sectors. In fact, there is only so much money in the U.S. stock market, and it is often like this. After hyping one sector, it moves out and hypes another. In the past, this hype was dominated by the player hedge funds we just mentioned.

31:29

这就是VIX，很重要，我特意标了。第二是我们刚反复说的板块轮动。美股市场的资金就这么多，往往炒完一个板块，就换另一个炒。过去主要是对冲基金主导，现在有散户和对冲基金两个玩家，所以板块轮动表现更复杂。

31:51

But now there are actually two players, one is retail investors and the other is hedge funds, so the rotation performance of this sector is more complicated. The third part is what I just introduced. After buying more than 5 million options every day, the chamber of commerce does hedging, which has an increasingly greater impact on the overall US stock price. The fourth point has just been introduced. It is because we bought futures, ES futures, that led to this change in stock prices.

31:51

第三部分是我刚介绍的，每天5000多万张期权成交后，做市商会对冲，对美股整体价格的影响越来越大。第四点刚说过，因为买了期货（ES期货），导致股价变化。

32:30

So what are the others? Because there are many quantitative or strategy funds, such as CTA, they actually have algorithms. When it reaches a point, no matter what the price is or what company it is, it is often actually an index, and it will be sold or bought directly. After buying, as I said just now, the index itself will cause changes in individual stocks, which is actually the mainstream now. This kind of forced selling of quantitative products also has a great impact.

32:30

还有什么？因为有很多量化或策略基金，比如CTA，它们有算法，到某个点，不管价格和公司，往往直接买卖指数。买了之后，如刚才所说，指数本身会导致个股变化，这现在是主流。这种量化产品的强制买卖影响也很大。

33:00

Then there is the quarterly bond balance, which is relatively small. Every quarter, many insurance funds, so-called active funds, will have a bond balancing process. I think, the fourth point, the impact of price behavior itself is actually the main reason for our daily fluctuations, and it is also the most complicated point. As for VRX, sector swaps and options, the impact is getting bigger and bigger. The

33:00

还有季度债券平衡，规模较小。每季度，很多保险基金、所谓的活跃资金会进行债券平衡。我觉得第四点，价格行为本身的影响其实是日常波动的主要原因，也是最复杂的一点。至于VIX、板块轮动和期权，影响越来越大。

33:34

fifth point is easy to understand, which is emergency. The last point is that if you want to invest in individual stocks, then individual stocks also have their own fundamentals or some basic factors. So these six points basically summarize the influencing factors when you look at the US stock market. As I said earlier, U.S. stocks are essentially about liquidity and valuation. This chart is NFCI, which represents the current liquidity in the United States. This is a post-market indicator and is not predictive.

33:34

第五点容易理解，就是突发事件。最后一点，如果你投个股，个股也有自己的基本面或一些基本因素。这六点基本总结了看美股时的影响因素。如前所述，美股本质上是流动性和估值。这张图是NFCI，代表美国当前的流动性，是滞后指标，不具预测性。

34:06

This value is announced approximately once a week, and the lower the value, the better the liquidity. So now it's negative 0.5. NFCI and ANFCI are basically the same thing, except that the indicators are slightly optimized. As you can see, the current liquidity on June 27th is better than the negative 0.49 we had six months ago.

34:06

这个值大概每周公布一次，数值越低，流动性越好。现在是-0.5。NFCI和ANFCI基本一样，指标稍作优化。6月27日的流动性比半年前的-0.49好，比一年前的-0.38也好。

34:35

Compared with a year ago, it is even better. A year ago it was only negative 0.38. So it has been reflected recently that the liquidity, that is, the money in the market is very good, there is a lot of it, and the liquidity is very good. But please note that this is a future market indicator and is not predictive. It just allows you to observe your current position. The

34:35

最近反映出市场资金很充裕，流动性很好。但注意这是滞后指标，不预测，只是让你观察当前状况。

34:55

second thing about valuation is that there is also a market outlook indicator, which is the Buffett indicator. It is just what I said just now, which is your total market value per share divided by your GDP. How high is it now? It is the highest point ever. It is definitely too high. You can see in the lower right corner that it is much higher than in 2000. In 2000, it was less than 150, but now it is 209. There

34:55

估值方面，有个巴菲特指标，就是美股总市值除以GDP。现在多高？历史最高点，肯定过高。右下角能看到比2000年高多了，2000年不到150，现在209。

35:23

is a ratio here, and anything greater than 160 is significantly overvalued, and we are now at 209. So when I say this high valuation, I don't mean that the price per share will fall. There is no such reason. It doesn't mean that the stock will fall if the valuation is high. I just say that people's sentiment is indeed very high now and they are willing to give a higher multiple.

35:23

这里的比例，超过160就是显著高估，我们现在209。我说高估，不是说股价会跌，没这道理，不是估值高就会跌，只是说现在人们情绪确实很高，愿意给更高的倍数。

35:45

So these two charts are what I just said. For us to evaluate each share, one is liquidity and the other is valuation or sentiment. They are two relatively vivid charts. Of course you will have many other charts or indicators, but for me, I basically know it by looking at these two charts. I have just said so much, introducing big companies, small companies, the bond market, and influencing factors.

35:45

这两张图就是我说的，评估美股，一个是流动性，一个是估值（情绪），比较直观。当然还有很多其他图表或指标，但对我来说，看这两个基本就够了。说了这么多，介绍了大公司、小公司、债市、影响因素。

36:13

So what is it actually? Actually, we hope that everyone can build a framework. Every day when you open an application I use, such as the free version of Coffee, you can build a framework. This is when you start trading every day, you know where you are in the middle of this map.

36:13

其实是希望大家能建立一个框架。每天打开我用的软件，比如免费版的Coffee，就能构建这个框架。开始交易时，知道自己在这个地图的哪个位置。

36:34

So here, for example, if you look at the middle bottom, it shows the rise and fall of large, medium and small companies, for example, in the upper right corner there is foreign exchange virtual currency, as well as the international market, and in the lower right corner there are commodities. The eleven sections in the middle of the upper left corner will give you a rough idea of where you are trading every day.

36:34

比如中间底部显示大中小盘股的涨跌，右上角有外汇虚拟货币和国际市场，右下角有大宗商品，左上中间的11个板块，让你大致知道每天交易的位置。

37:10

In other words, as you can see, I think that when you trade, you are not just speculating on an individual stock, and it is not just buying a stock and that's it. In fact, it is not like that. First of all, individual stocks are the last thing, you have to establish the overall framework first. In other words, establishing this framework requires answering three questions: The first is, what is the overall situation of the market at present? The

37:10

也就是说，交易不只是炒个股，买只股票就完了，不是这样。首先个股是最次要的，得先建立整体框架。建立框架需要回答三个问题：一是当前市场整体情况如何？

37:34

second is, how do you estimate the funds are flowing between various factors and sectors? For example, I always think that funds have been exhausted in momentum stocks in recent times, and are ready to go in value stocks. This is why I was able to observe and come to this conclusion. I study these things every day, and I think I came to this conclusion. Whether it is right or not, at least I have formed my own analysis model.

37:34

二是资金在各种因子和板块间如何流动？比如我总觉得最近动量股资金枯竭，准备流向价值股，这是我每天研究得出的结论，不管对错，至少形成了自己的分析模型。

38:05

So if you want to trade individual stocks, you may also need to consider the current fundamentals and price of your stocks. These three questions are the starting point of our daily trading. In other words, trading does not mean that you just hold a stock and want to buy it, but you have to answer these three starting questions before you can complete the subsequent transaction. I spoke rather quickly just now, and my summary of the market is just a panoramic and very rough description.

38:05

所以交易个股，可能还需要考虑个股当前的基本面和价格。这三个问题是日常交易的起点，不是说拿着一只股票想买就买，得先回答这三个问题，才能进行后续交易。刚才说得比较快，对市场的总结只是全景式的粗略描述。

38:42

In fact, there are three points I would like to emphasize here that are not well understood by many retail investors. I think when you trade US stocks now, you must understand the first point, that is, the impact of options is very, very large. Its impact on the stock price is not just one-third, its impact is very, very large, which I really cannot quantify.

38:42

其实有三点很多散户没搞明白，我想强调一下。现在交易美股，第一点必须明白，期权的影响非常非常大，对股价的影响不止三分之一，大到我无法量化。

39:08

But I can sense that, especially the so-called 0 DTE, after it comes out in 2022, it means that you can buy options that will expire on the next day. This will have a huge impact on the entire US stock market after it comes out. So, now when we start trading, you don't necessarily have to trade options, but if you don't trade options, I think you are very rare.

39:08

但能感觉到，尤其是2022年出现的0 DTE（当日到期）期权，就是可以买第二天到期的期权，出来后对整个美股影响巨大。现在做交易，不一定要做期权，但不懂期权，我觉得说不过去。

39:34

In other words, using the KLR analogy I just used, I think if you don’t understand options, you don’t necessarily have to trade. If you don’t understand options, it means you haven’t even entered the elementary school stage; you are still in the kindergarten stage. This is my personal opinion. The second point is what I just said, futures are actually stock index futures, which is called anti-genetic, and it is actually becoming more and more serious. It

39:34

用刚才的学习阶段类比，不懂期权，没进小学，还在幼儿园。这是我个人观点。第二点，期货其实是股指期货，这种“反作用”越来越严重，不是个股涨跌影响指数，而是指数涨跌影响个股。

39:55

is not the rise and fall of individual stocks that affects the index. On the contrary, the truth now is that the rise and fall of the index affects individual stocks. I think this is particularly important. So sometimes you see, for example, Apple, a very bad company, why doesn't it fall? It's because it is the second largest weighted stock in the S&P 500, and in order to buy the S&P 500, everyone pulls it up deeply.

39:55

我觉得这特别重要。有时看到苹果业绩不好，为什么不跌？因为它是标普500第二大权重股，为了买标普500，大家把它拉起来了。

40:27

So in fact, if Apple does not enter that downward phase, it is actually very difficult for it to fall. But if the market really goes down, Apple will definitely fall. So what I mean is that when you trade and when you look at your individual stocks, it’s actually not important. I now increasingly believe that individual stocks are really unimportant.

40:27

所以苹果不进入下跌阶段，很难跌，但市场真跌，苹果肯定跌。意思是交易时看个股其实不重要，我越来越觉得个股真的不重要。

40:47

In essence, it is the index that affects your individual stocks. You have studied the fundamentals of individual stocks and the changes in a large number of other people's indexes, which have deeply distorted your fundamentals and deeply disrupted your fundamentals. The third point I hope everyone understands is that we retail investors now have significant power because of the large-scale use of price increases, that is, the price increase of options.

40:47

本质是指数影响个股。你研究个股基本面，而大量指数变化已经严重扭曲、干扰了个股基本面。第三点，散户现在势力很大，因为期权的大规模使用，包括最近4月底开始的行情，主要是散户在买。

41:16

Including the most recent wave of market conditions, which started in late April, it was actually mainly retail investors who were buying up the prices. Then the biggest feature of the retail investors' market is that it will cause a sharp increase in short-term volatility. At the same time, another huge feature of the retail market is that it often goes to a very extreme.

41:16

散户市场的最大特点是短期波动率骤增，而且经常走向极端。比如大家觉得股价太高该跌了，它不跌，非要涨到离谱的高度，然后因突发事件暴跌，跌得很快。

41:41

For example, everyone thinks that the stock price has risen too high and should fall, but it will not fall. It must rise to a huge, unbearable height, and then suddenly plummet due to some unexpected event, and then a collapse will immediately occur, and the fall will be very fast.

41:41

比如大家觉得股价太高该跌了，它不跌，非要涨到离谱的高度，然后因突发事件暴跌，迅速崩盘，跌得很快。

42:04

So I think that everyone should not think that hedge funds have the final say on the U.S. stock market now. It’s not like that. In fact, it’s really not the case. I think hedge funds are now basically on par with retail investors in terms of power. This is my personal view on this market. What I particularly want to share with you is my experience over the past three years, which is the importance of options, futures and retail investors. What

42:04

所以别以为现在美股由对冲基金说了算，不是的，对冲基金和散户势力基本相当。这是我对市场的个人看法。特别想分享的是过去三年的经验：期权、期货和散户的重要性。

42:29

I just talked about is the first part of our sharing, which is to hope that everyone can have a preliminary understanding of what this market is all about. The second part will talk about the more critical core, which is how we trade stocks or what trading is. The first thing I want to ask is what exactly is trading. I think too many people trade just because I buy a stock and sell a stock, and I think that's wrong from the beginning. The

42:29

刚才讲的是第一部分，希望大家对市场有个初步了解。第二部分讲更核心的，我们如何交易股票，交易到底是什么。首先，很多人觉得交易就是买卖股票，一开始就错了。

42:58

first point he didn't think about is that trading is a two-dimensional process. It must have a time frame, and the definition of the time frame will greatly affect the final effect of your transaction. We have summarized it into three major frameworks. The first one is short-term, which includes intraday trading. Your holding time may not exceed two weeks. Intraday trading is settled immediately on the same day. The

42:58

他们没考虑到交易是二维的，必须有时间框架，时间框架的定义对交易效果影响很大。我们总结为三大框架：短期（包括日内交易），持仓不超过两周，日内交易当天平仓。

# 美股交易核心概念与实践分享（42:58-01:37:01）

42:58

他没考虑到的第一点是，交易是一个二维过程，必须有时间框架，而时间框架的定义会极大影响交易的最终效果。我们总结为三大框架：第一是短期，包括日内交易，持仓时间可能不超过两周，日内交易当天即时平仓。

43:24

second wave is two to eight weeks, I think. I think basically long-term holdings are those that last for more than three months. Why is this time frame important? That is to say, as a trader, I think it is best for him to trade only in one main time frame. For example, I only do short-term trading. I almost never do short-term trading, and I rarely do long-term trading.

43:24

第二波是2到8周，我认为长期持有基本上是指超过三个月的持仓。为什么时间框架重要？也就是说，作为交易者，最好只专注于一个主要时间框架。比如我只做短期交易，几乎从不做超短期，也很少做长期。

43:49

In fact, you alone cannot cross two rivers at the same time in your life. It is difficult for you to do well in both short-term and swing trading. It is actually very difficult, so you must only have one. Then once you define your time frame, it won't cause you any conflicts.

43:49

其实，人这辈子不可能同时过两条河，很难同时做好短期和波段交易，确实很难，所以必须只选一个。一旦确定了时间框架，就不会产生冲突。

44:04

For example, if you are doing short-term trading and your position is locked in, if you always think that you can still hold on and will hold on to the position after two months, then you have actually exceeded your time frame. But if you are determined to stick to a time frame to trade in waves, it may be eight weeks, and I will stop loss no matter what. So the time frame point is actually very simple to explain.

44:04

比如，你做短期交易，持仓被套了，却总想着再坚持两个月，这就超出了你的时间框架。但如果确定按8周的波段时间框架交易，无论如何都会止损。所以时间框架这个点其实很好解释。

44:28

However, during my own trading process, this incident had a very serious impact on me because of human nature. In fact, many times it is easy for you to blur the time lines for yourself, which will eventually cause your deal to become a mess and you will never be able to complete it. This is actually a very wrong deal. As for the second part, I think many people think whether I can invest.

44:28

但在我自己的交易过程中，人性让这个问题对我产生了严重影响。很多时候，人很容易模糊自己的时间界限，最终导致交易一团糟，永远做不好，这其实是非常错误的交易。至于第二点，我觉得很多人会想，自己能不能做投资。

45:04

This is where I come to the point. I think there are two ways to make money in the U.S. stock market: one is to make regular investments, and the other is to trade like we are doing now. So is there a possibility that I don't have to worry too much and I can just hold a stock and make money over several years? This kind of situation definitely exists, but the probability is actually very small. This is what is called investment.

45:04

这就说到点子上了。我认为美股市场赚钱只有两种方式：一种是定期投资，另一种是我们现在做的交易。那有没有可能不用太操心，持有一只股票几年就能赚钱？这种情况肯定有，但概率其实很小，这就是所谓的投资。

45:25

I don't think retail investors have the ability to invest at all. I think there are indeed some retail investors. For example, if I got Nvidia in 2021, I made money, and I have been making money ever since. This is actually survivor bias. At

45:25

我觉得散户根本没有投资能力。当然确实有散户，比如2021年买了英伟达，一直赚钱，这其实是幸存者偏差。

45:42

that time, if you held technology stocks, or if you held Chinese stocks listed in the US at that time, I remember a stock called GSX Techedu. It was 150 yuan at its peak, and then only 60 cents left a year and a half later. So in fact, the most typical example is Sco. SCO reached its highest point in 2001, and it took 25 years before it returned to its original price recently.

45:42

当时，如果你持有科技股，或者中概股，我记得有只叫跟谁学（GSX Techedu）的股票，巅峰时150元，一年半后只剩60美分。最典型的例子是SCO，2001年达到最高点，最近才回到原价，花了25年。

46:09

If you bought Scoot in 2001, not 2000, which was the best Internet stock like Nvidia now, you would be stuck for 25 years. So I think that once you start trading, you should not think that you can still invest. The second point is that I don’t think retail investors can invest. I think the so-called successful investors are all due to survivor bias. Most people who fail will not talk about it online.

46:09

如果你2001年（不是2000年）买了当时像现在英伟达一样的顶级互联网股SCO，会被套25年。所以我觉得一旦开始做交易，就不该再想着能做投资。第二点，我认为散户做不了投资，所谓的成功投资者都是幸存者偏差，大多数失败者不会在网上说。

46:41

There are not many people who say that I bought SCO stock in 2000 and I have been losing money until now. No one says that. They all say that I bought Nvidia in 2021 and now I have made 10 times the profit. So actually I think those are all stories. For retail investors, I think the most suitable method is to trade in waves. You don’t have time for short-term trading as it is too tiring.

46:41

没多少人会说“我2000年买了SCO，亏到现在”，没人说这个。大家都在说“2021年买了英伟达，现在赚了10倍”。所以我觉得那些都是故事。对散户来说，最合适的是波段交易。短期交易太累，没时间做。

47:05

And if you want to invest in the long term, of course you can do it, but I always feel that you have to bear additional risks in the long term, because I don’t think retail investors can invest. There is another point which is actually the so-called truth. I think all trades are basically leveraged. So many people say that Buffett does not use leverage and will never use leverage. In fact, they are all deceiving you.

47:05

想长期投资当然可以，但我总觉得长期要承担额外风险，因为散户做不了投资。还有一点，所谓的真相是：所有交易基本都带杠杆。很多人说巴菲特不用杠杆，永远不用，其实都是骗你的。

47:36

Buffett actually added huge leverage. In fact, he obtained funds through insurance companies at almost zero cost. I have also read a lot of books, and I found that almost 100% of all traders use leverage. It is impossible to make money without leverage. But there are different ways to add leverage. Some people do not actually need to add leverage when doing intraday trading, because it is equivalent to adding a leverage of 10, and they may have to make dozens of transactions every day.

47:36

巴菲特其实加了巨大杠杆，他通过保险公司获得几乎零成本的资金。我读了很多书，发现几乎100%的交易者都用杠杆，不用杠杆赚不到钱。但加杠杆的方式不同，有些人做日内交易不用额外加杠杆，因为每天做几十笔交易，相当于加了10倍杠杆。

48:11

This is actually consistent with the traditional understanding that one should not use leverage when trading stocks. I think if you don't use leverage when trading stocks, you are actually wasting your time. But I am not encouraging everyone to increase leverage, no, I am just stating a simple fact. The fact is that most real traders are all leveraged, it’s just a matter of how much leverage they use. What is the essence of trading? It is actually about understanding our world called probability.

48:11

这和“炒股不该用杠杆”的传统认知一致。但我认为炒股不用杠杆其实是浪费时间。但我不是鼓励大家加杠杆，只是陈述事实：大多数真正的交易者都用杠杆，只是多少而已。交易的本质是什么？其实是理解我们这个叫“概率”的世界。

48:47

I think this is actually the biggest pain point for many traders, because the world we trade in is different from the world we live in every day. It is summarized from the reality of our daily life that there is indeed a certain probability. It is said that something might happen unexpectedly, or something good might happen, or something might happen when the sky is disconnected.

48:47

我觉得这是很多交易者最大的痛点，因为我们交易的世界和日常生活的世界不一样。日常生活中，我们总结出事情确实有一定概率，比如可能突然发生意外，可能有好事，可能天有不测风云。

49:12

But to sum up, the probability of high-probability events in real life is relatively fixed. For example, if you work, you will receive your salary at the appointed time, which is a high probability event. So in real life we have become accustomed to a stable probability, but stocks are actually a very unstable probability event, and trading is actually a very unstable probability event.

49:12

但总的来说，现实生活中高概率事件的概率相对固定。比如上班，到点发工资，这是高概率事件。所以现实中我们习惯了稳定的概率，但股票其实是极不稳定的概率事件，交易也是。

49:38

Suppose you are an employee now. Every month you will think, I may get salary this month, or I may not get salary. Can you accept such a life? You absolutely cannot accept such a life. But trading is essentially this kind of life, that is, you have the possibility of failure in every transaction, and the probability of your failure is very high. So at this time you must accept and understand that this probability event or transaction event is completely different from your real world.

49:38

假设你现在是员工，每个月都想“这个月可能发工资，也可能不发”，你能接受这种生活吗？绝对不能。但交易本质上就是这种生活，每笔交易都可能失败，失败概率还很高。所以这时你必须接受并理解，这种概率事件和你的现实世界完全不同。

50:14

Then you don't have to worry about the loss of this order, you have to look at your overall position, or position management. What do I think is the most important difference between this probability event and your real life? The method is more important than the result.

50:14

那你不必纠结这一单的亏损，要着眼整体仓位，也就是仓位管理。我认为这种概率事件和现实生活最重要的区别是什么？方法比结果更重要。

50:33

Sometimes in our country we attach great importance to realism. We Chinese are often very realistic. As long as there is a mouse, it is a good cat. No matter what means I use, as long as I can make money, it's fine. This is a behavioral pattern and social habit that many of us may have developed in our daily lives. This kind of habit and behavior pattern is a huge opportunity in trading.

50:33

我们国家有时很注重现实主义，中国人往往很现实，“不管黑猫白猫，抓住老鼠就是好猫”，不管用什么方法，能赚钱就行。这是很多人在日常生活中形成的行为模式和社会习惯，但这种习惯和模式在交易中是个大问题。

51:02

I would rather lose money in the right way than make money in the wrong way. The way and means are more important than the result. In fact, many people cannot get over this hurdle. Many retail investors have been trading for five or ten years and still cannot get over this hurdle, especially if you are a very strong person in real life, in daily life.

51:02

我宁愿用正确的方式亏钱，也不用错误的方式赚钱。方式和手段比结果重要。其实很多人过不了这个坎，很多散户交易了五到十年都过不了，尤其是在现实生活中很强势的人。

51:25

For example, doctors and teachers, especially doctors, basically have no success in stock trading. It's because the doctor has to make decisions, and he is a very self-centered person, even arrogant. The more self-centered and arrogant a person is, the less likely he will be able to trade stocks well. Only those who are very humble, and who are very humble at heart, have a hope in stock trading.

51:25

比如医生和老师，尤其是医生，炒股基本不成功。因为医生必须做决策，很以自我为中心，甚至傲慢。越以自我为中心、越傲慢的人，炒股越难成功。只有那些非常谦逊、内心谦逊的人，炒股才有希望。

51:51

Then the transaction itself is repetitive, it is not a one-time deal. Why do I emphasize this repeatedly and keep betting? Because many times, especially when you are losing money, you will be tempted by the thought that if I take this gamble, I may be able to turn things around in an instant.

51:51

而且交易本身是重复性的，不是一次性的。我为什么反复强调“不断下注”？因为很多时候，尤其是亏钱时，你会忍不住想“赌一把，说不定能瞬间翻盘”。

52:21

As long as you have the idea of going all in, you will lose. In fact, I lost a lot of money, but I am still slowly climbing up from my butt. The most important point for me is that I never have the idea of gamble all on one thing. Even if I lose a lot, I will never have the idea of gamble all on one thing.

52:21

只要有孤注一掷的想法，你就会输。其实我亏过很多钱，但还在慢慢爬起来。对我来说，最重要的是从没有孤注一掷的想法，就算亏很多，也绝不会有。

52:42

Because I think there will be hundreds or thousands of transactions in the future, and you just need to do well in each transaction. This is an iterative process and you can place a bet every time as long as you have the chips. Let me

52:42

因为未来还有成百上千笔交易，做好每一笔就行。这是个迭代过程，只要有筹码，每次都能下注。我来

52:54

say a little bit here. There are many people on Twitter who like to follow orders. In fact, I think following orders is the most meaningless thing. Because if you follow a stock code, you will basically lose, because for others, first of all, they have an overall position.

52:54

这里说一点，推特上很多人喜欢跟单，其实我觉得跟单最没意义。因为跟着股票代码操作，基本会亏，因为对别人来说，首先人家有整体仓位。

53:07

For example, in my case, for some of my positions, I may just want to hedge, so I may think that losing money is normal. If you follow my hedging code, won't you lose a lot? Because I am considering the entire position, and it is meaningless for you to follow a single stock. So I think you shouldn’t have the idea of following orders. It is meaningless and you will almost certainly lose money. To

53:07

比如我，有些仓位只是为了对冲，觉得亏钱很正常，你跟着我的对冲代码操作，不就亏惨了？因为我考虑的是整个仓位，你跟单一只股票没意义。所以别想着跟单，没意义，基本会亏。

53:34

sum up, trading means that first you need to have a time frame, it is not an unlimited time frame, and you must expand your trading power. Why is this? I think many of my followers or those who are listening to this now may not understand why I have to repeatedly emphasize this time frame. Because the time frame is one of the things that has had the greatest impact on me during my years of trading, and it brings great trouble to traders.

53:34

总结一下，交易首先要有时间框架，不是无限期的，还要发挥交易能力。为什么？我觉得很多关注者或听众可能不理解为什么反复强调时间框架，因为时间框架是我多年交易中影响最大的事情之一，给交易者带来很多麻烦。

54:01

You can either do short-term trading or swing trading. It is best not to try to do several time frames at the same time, as that is difficult. The second thing is that you must understand this intervention world; it is completely different from your real world. The third point is that it is a repetitive approach, which may be different from what ordinary orthodox people say.

54:01

你要么做短期交易，要么做波段交易，最好别同时尝试多个时间框架，很难。第二，必须理解这个“干预世界”，和现实世界完全不同。第三，这是个重复的过程，可能和普通正统说法不同。

54:27

I think those people are actually scamming people. In essence, you can’t make money without leverage when you talk about those fancy transactions. But you have to evaluate how you add this leverage. Of course you can, as long as you have patience and earn money slowly. I am just stating a fact. Compiled & subtitled by: Brother Sanma. All the content I introduced today actually comes down to one point, which is this page, which is every transaction we make.

54:27

我觉得那些人其实是骗人的。本质上，讲那些花哨的交易，不用杠杆是赚不到钱的。但你要评估怎么加杠杆。当然可以慢慢来，有耐心就行，我只是陈述事实。（编译&字幕：三马哥）我今天讲的所有内容其实都归结为一点，就是这一页，我们每一笔交易。

55:03

In fact, it is a mathematical concept in itself, which looks at what is called expected value. This is actually a very complicated thing... but it is also very simple if you understand it. What is expected value? It means that you may make a profit or a loss on every transaction, so you calculate your profit and loss ratio. Then if you make ten transactions, you may have half left over, and you can calculate how much your surplus is.

55:03

其实它本身是个数学概念，看所谓的期望值。这东西其实很复杂……但理解了也很简单。什么是期望值？就是每笔交易可能赚也可能亏，所以要算盈亏比。做十笔交易，可能剩一半，就能算出盈余多少。

55:27

Then you require yourself that no matter what strategy you use, your expected value must be positive for every stock transaction you make. So what is the expected value? It is equal to the profit and loss ratio multiplied by the remainder minus half of the remainder. Let

55:27

然后要求自己，无论用什么策略，每笔股票交易的期望值必须为正。那么期望值是什么？等于盈亏比乘以胜率减去（1减胜率）。我来

55:50

me give you an example. For example, I bet 1,000 yuan each time, and I earn 1,000 yuan each time and lose 500 yuan each time, so my profit and loss ratio is 4 each time. Then, if I can make money in every ten transactions, and I win all the time, and lose 7 times, then what is my final expected value?

55:50

举个例子，每次下注1000元，每次赚1000元，亏500元，所以盈亏比是4。如果十笔交易中，赢3次，输7次，最终期望值是多少？

56:15

It is 4 times the profit and loss ratio times the remainder, which is 0.3. The half remainder is 1 minus the remainder, so the half remainder is 0.7, which is 4 times 0.3, 1.2 minus 0.7, which is 0.5. What does 0.5 mean? It means that the average profit of each of my transactions is equivalent to 0.5 times my loss amount.

56:15

就是盈亏比4乘以胜率0.3，等于1.2，减去（1减胜率）0.7，等于0.5。0.5是什么意思？就是每笔交易平均盈利相当于亏损金额的0.5倍。

56:40

For example, in the XL table that I used as an example, the amount of my loss each time, that is, the R value is 250 yuan. So if I make each of these ten transactions according to this expected value, on average, my next ten transactions will also have this expected value. On average, I make an average profit of 125 yuan from each transaction. That’s the idea.

56:40

比如我举例用的表格里，每次亏损金额（R值）是250元。那么按这个期望值做这十笔交易，平均下来，接下来的十笔也会有这个期望值，每笔平均赚125元。就是这个意思。

57:07

So if my expected value is negative, it means that the more trades you make, the more you lose. If your expected value is 0, it means that the more trades you make, the more you lose. So if we look back, we will find out, what exactly is what we call stock trading? Stock trading requires you to make hundreds or thousands of transactions by yourself, and then ensure that you form a positive expectation.

57:07

所以期望值为负，交易越多亏越多；期望值为0，交易越多也亏越多。回头看，所谓炒股到底是什么？炒股就是自己做几百到几千笔交易，确保形成正期望。

57:42

How do you complete hundreds to thousands of transactions with a positive expected value? In fact, there is something called the impossible triangle of transactions. In other words, the expected value itself has three factors: the winning rate, the odds, and the frequency of transactions. This means that when you make a trade, you should always consider which two of these three factors your trading strategy may occupy, because it is impossible for it to occupy all of them. Let

57:42

怎么完成几百到几千笔正期望的交易？其实有个“交易不可能三角”，期望值本身有三个因素：胜率、盈亏比、交易频率。也就是说，做交易时，要考虑策略可能占这三个因素中的哪两个，因为不可能全占。我来

58:17

me introduce it in detail here. If you want to do it, your winning rate is very high, and your frequency is also very high, what is this? This is a very typical self-trading. That is, you run away every time you make a little money. Your odds are very low, so you run away every time you make a little money. And you do it very frequently, just a few times a day.

58:17

详细说一下。如果胜率很高，频率也很高，这是什么？这是典型的“薅羊毛”交易，每次赚点就跑，盈亏比很低，每天做好几次。

58:37

This is what the term "peach skin" means, just make a little money, and a large number of quantitative funds adopt this strategy.

58:37

这就是“薅羊毛”的意思，就赚点小钱，很多量化基金用这个策略。

58:54

So what is another way? That is, I want to emphasize the winning rate and the odds, but I don’t trade that frequently. It’s like I want to hold back a big move, hold it back for a long time, a big one, and then make money for three years without opening a business, and then eat for three years after I open it.

58:54

另一种方式是什么？就是看重胜率和盈亏比，但交易不频繁，像憋大招，憋很久，一次赚够三年的钱，然后吃三年。

59:12

This strategy is indeed a strategy or a trading tendency, but I personally don’t like it very much. Why? It will gradually and subtly cultivate your perfectionism. If you intensify it, it is actually your reaction to the world of probability. That is, you are not trying to understand the world of probability, but are still trying to find certainty in the world of probability. I think it is unnecessary.

59:12

这个策略确实是一种策略或交易倾向，但我个人不太喜欢。为什么？它会潜移默化培养完美主义，放大来看，其实是你对概率世界的反应——不是试图理解概率世界，而是还在找确定性，我觉得没必要。

59:45

My own way of thinking, which I also think is more suitable for retail investors, is to pay attention to odds and frequency. That is, my winning rate may not be very high, but I have to ensure that the odds are relatively high.

59:45

我自己的思路，也觉得更适合散户的是，看重盈亏比和频率。胜率可能不高，但要保证盈亏比比较高。

59:59

So many times, especially some of my old friends know that I actually change stocks very quickly. I don’t care about the winning rate. I don’t care that I may be wrong in seven out of ten transactions. I stop the loss quickly. It doesn’t matter. I myself adopt this tendency of odds plus frequency to ensure that I pursue a positive expected value. In

59:59

所以很多时候，尤其是老朋友们知道，我换股很快，不在乎胜率，不在乎十笔错七笔，止损快就行。我用这种“盈亏比+频率”的倾向，确保追求正期望。

01:00:30

general, roughly speaking, if your profit and loss ratio is greater than 2, then you must trade three times and you must win once, so that your expected value is positive. If your profit and loss ratio is larger, that is, you lose one hundred dollars each time and win three hundred dollars, then your winning rate can be a little lower, that is, you only need to win once in every four transactions, and it doesn't matter if you make a mistake three times.

01:00:30

总的来说，盈亏比大于2的话，交易三次赢一次，期望值就是正的。盈亏比更大，比如每次亏100，赢300，胜率可以低一点，四笔赢一次就行，错三次也没关系。

01:00:56

This expected value itself is a mathematical problem, and in fact, this is trading. So, on the surface, when we study today, for example, how much Apple has risen or how much Microsoft has fallen, these are actually just surface phenomena. In essence, you need to look deeper into all things. It 's a bit like in The Matrix, when you look through it you see that it's all code, not real people.

01:00:56

这个期望值本身是数学问题，这其实就是交易。表面上，我们研究苹果涨了多少、微软跌了多少，这些都是表象。本质上，要看透本质，就像《黑客帝国》里，看透了都是代码，不是真人。

01:01:26

Similarly, if you look through it, you will see that all transactions are based on expected value. How you handle your win rate, your odds, and your draw rate will allow you to continuously and steadily move towards your expected value. So the page just now is the core point of my entire sharing. I think trading is a math problem. As we all know, we have two trading styles, one is trend following and the other is trend regression.

01:01:26

同样，看透交易，都是基于期望值。如何处理胜率、盈亏比、交易频率，能让你持续稳定地接近期望值。所以刚才那页是我整个分享的核心，交易是数学问题。众所周知，交易风格有两种：趋势跟随和趋势回归。

01:02:00

Trend following means that its assumption is that once a stock forms a trend, it will continue for a period of time. This is the most mainstream strategy at present. But here, everyone is using it, and it is actually very, very difficult. What is the first difficulty? It is that you have to find the breakthrough point as soon as possible and enter the trend as early as possible in the early stage.

01:02:00

趋势跟随的假设是，股票形成趋势后会持续一段时间，这是目前最主流的策略。但大家都在用，其实很难。第一个难点是，要尽早找到突破点，在趋势初期入场。

01:02:36

Otherwise, especially with leverage, it will be difficult for you to make money if you enter in the middle or late stages of the trend. Of course, what is the more common situation? It is the so-called false breakthrough. You rushed in, thinking that the trend had broken through, but in fact it was false. The apparent upward breakthrough was actually a lure to buy, and then it fell back. This is a false breakthrough, and there are very many of them now.

01:02:36

否则，尤其是带杠杆的话，在趋势中后期入场很难赚钱。当然，更常见的是假突破：你冲进去，以为趋势突破了，其实是假的，表面上涨突破其实是诱多，然后回落。现在假突破很多。

01:03:00

I think that if you really want to follow the trend, the trend of individual stocks is actually not very important, because the biggest feature of each stock is that individual stocks basically obey the sectors, and the sectors obey the broader market, and the broader market will rotate among the sectors. Therefore, if you really want to follow the trend, it is actually important to look at the trend of the overall market or the trend of the sector.

01:03:00

我觉得真想做趋势跟随，个股趋势其实不那么重要，因为个股最大的特点是：个股服从板块，板块服从大盘，大盘在板块间轮动。所以真想做趋势跟随，看大盘或板块趋势更重要。

01:03:25

Once you have determined this, your individual stocks are actually relatively well positioned. The market and sectors are like the river water rushing forward, and your individual stocks are just the boats being hit by it. When the trend follows on the river, when you implement this strategy, you will always choose the strongest, momentum strategy. You buy the stock that has risen the most and the most violently, and go long on it. The idea is something like this.

01:03:25

确定了这个，个股定位就比较准了。大盘和板块像奔腾的河水，个股只是被冲击的船。做趋势跟随，实施策略时，总会选最强的动量股，买涨得最多最猛的，做多。思路大概这样。

01:04:00

Here we also need to talk about how you judge whether there is a trend? There are many people on the Internet now, and many of them draw pictures, especially wave theory and various trend lines. Actually, I never believe in these things. I don't really believe that technical analysis can judge and predict this trend. I think trends are determined by the six points I just mentioned - judging its fundamentals through valuation and liquidity. This is a common trend following strategy.

01:04:00

还要说一下，怎么判断有趋势？现在网上很多人画图，尤其是波浪理论和各种趋势线，我从不信这些，不觉得技术分析能判断和预测趋势。我觉得趋势由刚才说的六点决定——通过估值和流动性判断基本面。这是常见的趋势跟随策略。

01:04:39

Another strategy is the opposite, which is called the gentleman's return. The whole logic of the gentleman's return is that everything is cyclical, and after reaching an extreme, it will definitely reverse. Its characteristic is to find the area of extreme values. I would like to give an example here. I bought two stocks on Wednesday and Thursday, one short and one long. For example, why did I short RCL, Huangjia Cruises?

01:04:39

另一种相反的策略是“均值回归”。均值回归的逻辑是，万物皆有周期，到了极端就会反转，特点是找极值区域。举个例子，我周三周四买了两只股，一空一多。比如为什么空皇家加勒比邮轮（RCL）？

01:05:15

It was because I thought it had a deviation, a characteristic, that is, its stock price had exceeded three standard deviations of its 200-day moving average. The probability of three standard deviations is almost 99.8%, which is 0.2%. Its stock price has reached this much. Then I went long on CNC, but it was just the opposite. Its stock price was equivalent to three standard deviations lower than its value after it had been halved due to the sharp drop.

01:05:15

因为我觉得它出现了偏差，特点是股价超过了200日均线的三个标准差。三个标准差的概率几乎是99.8%，也就是0.2%的概率，它的股价到了这个程度。然后做多CNC，正好相反，暴跌腰斩后，股价比其价值低三个标准差，概率也在0.2%以内。

01:05:45

In other words, the probability is also within 0.2%. So I use this as an example. If we want to use individual stocks to illustrate the gentleman's return, at least there is a strategy. I will choose it to be so extreme that it is beyond three standard deviations before I will suppress it and make it reverse. That

01:05:45

也就是说，概率也在0.2%以内。所以用这个举例，用个股说明均值回归，至少有个策略：选极端到超出三个标准差的，才押注它反转。

01:06:11

is to say, I regard three standard deviations as the extreme value area, that is, I only regard it as the extreme value area if it is outside of 99.8%. But in fact, for the gentleman's return, the biggest difficulty is to catch the flying knife, that is, after it actually reaches the extreme value, it is impossible to reverse immediately. Immediate reversals are rare; the market often needs to consolidate or even continue to move forward.

01:06:11

也就是说，我把三个标准差当作极值区域，只有在99.8%概率之外才算。但均值回归最大的难点是“接飞刀”，到了极值后不会马上反转，很少立即反转，市场往往需要盘整甚至继续前行。

01:06:35

For example, I bought Asel stock, and after I shorted it, it rose by 2%. However, when I shorted it, it had just passed its third standard deviation. As a result, it rose again and increased by another 10 yuan. Therefore, it may continue to consolidate in the extreme value area for some time.

01:06:35

比如我做空Asel，做空后它涨了2%，做空时它刚过第三个标准差，结果又涨了10元。所以可能在极值区域盘整一段时间。

01:06:52

Therefore, the difficulty of the gentleman's return is that it may not start to return in the short term. You may even do the opposite. Not only will it not return, it may continue to rush upwards. Then it rushes up and reaches your time range. As I said just now, it comes to the issue of time range again, and you have to stop loss.

01:06:52

所以均值回归的难点是，短期可能不回归，甚至反向走，不但不回归，还可能继续冲高。然后到了你的时间框架，又回到时间框架问题，必须止损。

01:07:12

So this is the return of a gentleman. Gentleman's Return and...Speaking of which, these two educational styles are actually quite different. I think you should choose one as your main strategy based on your personality traits. You must choose it based on your personality traits. This is particularly important. Because if you do something against your nature, you will definitely not do it well.

01:07:12

这就是均值回归。均值回归和……说到这，两种交易风格差别很大。我觉得要根据性格选一个做主策略，必须看性格，这点特别重要。逆着本性做事，肯定做不好。

01:07:38

If you are a person who tends to follow the crowd by nature, you can choose to follow the trend and you can do it in the short term or in waves. So what is important? It is speed. As I said just now, trend followers must join the trend as early as possible. If you are the kind of person who always follows others and likes to think independently, then you can choose to return as a gentleman.

01:07:38

如果你天生从众，可选趋势跟随，做短期或波段，关键是速度，趋势跟随者要尽早入场。如果你喜欢独立思考，不随大流，可选均值回归。

01:08:00

Similarly, he may do short-term trading or longer-term trading. At this time, you are required to see it more accurately and really press the right one. Why? Because the longer you spend, the more likely you are to lose both money and time if you make a mistake. Daily speaking, people call this trend following. You start trading on the right side of the coordinate after the price is formed, so it is called right side trading.

01:08:00

同样，也可以做短期或长期。这时要求看得更准，押得对。为什么？因为时间越长，错了越可能钱和时间都亏。大家常说趋势跟随是等价格形成后在坐标右侧交易，叫右侧交易。

01:08:29

Gentleman's return is to ambush in advance, which is called left-side trading. This is my summary of these two trading styles. I don't argue about the two trading styles, I think both are OK. The key point is that you have to do it according to your personality. In addition to trading styles, we have three methods for daily analysis of stocks, including analysis of large stocks. The first one here is the one that everyone sees the most, which is technical analysis.

01:08:29

均值回归是提前埋伏，叫左侧交易。这是我对两种风格的总结，不争论哪种好，都可以，关键是按性格来。除了交易风格，日常分析股票（包括大盘）有三种方法。第一种是大家最常见的技术分析。

01:09:00

You can say that it is the same for many people who trade stocks, or people who share their experiences. They work hard to draw pictures every day, and what you draw is exactly the same as that... Anyway, it all makes a lot of sense. But to be honest, I hardly watch the kind of movies I watch, and frankly speaking, I think almost all of them are [ __ ].

01:09:00

很多炒股的人或分享经验的人都这样，每天努力画图，画得……反正都很有道理。但说实话，我基本不看，坦白说，我觉得几乎都是废话。

01:09:19

Why? Because the reason why its drawing is effective is not because the chart is effective, but because it forms a trading probability by adhering to the technical indicators, and it will have a strict stop loss. It is the trading probability that makes it more and more effective and makes it appear effective as a whole.

01:09:19

为什么？因为画图有效，不是图表有效，而是因为遵守技术指标形成了交易概率，还有严格止损。是交易概率让它越来越有效，整体看起来有效。

01:09:40

Another point is that many people use a certain technical indicator, and many traders use a certain technical indicator. For example, we call the 200-day moving average "long", and something like that. After it has indeed formed a certain quantitative basis, there will indeed be many people buying at that point. On the contrary, it is the indicator itself that makes the indicator effective. In fact, this happens less and less because people are increasingly influenced by options.

01:09:40

另外，很多人用某个技术指标，很多交易者都用，比如200日均线“做多”之类的。形成一定数量基础后，确实会有很多人在那个点买，反过来是指标本身让指标有效。但现在这种情况越来越少，因为受期权影响越来越大。

01:10:09

Therefore, the effectiveness of this technical analysis is also weakened. So I think technical analysis has basically no significant effect. Personally, I almost never use technical indicators. I will occasionally look at three indicators. The most important one is APR, which is used to set my stop loss point. I will take a look at other indicators and the military line. For the short term, I choose the 13-day EMA, and for the medium term, I look at the 63-day one.

01:10:09

所以技术分析的有效性也减弱了。我觉得技术分析基本没显著作用。我个人几乎不用技术指标，偶尔看三个：最重要的是ATR（平均真实波幅），用来设止损点；其他看均线，短期看13日指数移动平均线（EMA），中期看63日的。

01:10:45

Why did I choose the 13th and the 63rd? Because I found that there was a very old analyst on Wall Street who was in his 80s and he used these two indicators, so I also used these two indicators. The

01:10:45

为什么选13和63？因为发现华尔街有个80多岁的老分析师用这两个，我也就用了。

01:10:58

200-day military line is the moving average, which is used for long-term purposes. I take a look at this occasionally, and I really only look at the military line. I basically don’t look at RSI, and I only use APR to stop loss. However, technical indicators can be used as a filter. For example, I just used the example of using the three standard deviations of the 200-day line to filter stocks. At this time, technical indicators are of course needed.

01:10:58

200日均线是长期用的，偶尔看看，真的只看均线。基本不看RSI，只用ATR止损。不过技术指标可以当过滤器，比如刚才用200日均线三个标准差筛选股票，这时当然需要技术指标。

01:11:27

I basically use this. I never look at the lines and I never draw lines. I think the line drawing is basically the technical analysis method of the early twentieth century, which is equivalent to the cavalry tactics of that time. Now it is the era of drones and complete equipment, and you are still looking at this line drawing.

01:11:27

我基本就用这些，从不画线看图。觉得画线基本是二十世纪初的技术分析方法，相当于那时的骑兵战术，现在是无人机和全套装备时代，还在看画线。

01:11:51

Anyway, I hardly ever look at technical analysis. I also know some people who are good at technical analysis, and I think they are good at it because they follow the discipline, not because their technical analysis is effective. So what do I think is really effective? One is fundamental analysis, just as I said just now, you should repeatedly analyze around the six major points just mentioned, you need to understand what the current band is, find out what the macro narrative is and the freezing of the sector.

01:11:51

反正我基本不看技术分析。也认识些擅长技术分析的人，觉得他们做得好是因为守纪律，不是技术分析有效。那我觉得什么真有效？一是基本面分析，就像刚才说的，反复围绕六大点分析，要明白当前波段，找到宏观叙事和板块轮动。

01:12:18

In other words, first, the macro perspective is what story the market is telling recently; second, how this story will cause fluctuations between sectors, that is, freezing. So for individual stocks, there are many indicators. I think you don't even need to look at individual stocks. What's important is to make a comparison.

01:12:18

也就是，一从宏观看市场最近在讲什么故事；二这个故事如何引发板块间波动（轮动）。个股有很多指标，我觉得甚至不用看个股，重要的是做对比。

01:12:38

Zhang San and Li Si are in the same sector, for example, the airline stocks include Delta Airlines DAL and United Airlines UAL. If you compare them, you can see what's going on. For example, among the airline stocks, Greek Airlines, why is its price so good and has remained strong? DAL and UAL are basically the same, with large fluctuations, but Greek Airlines has always been stronger.

01:12:38

张三李四同属一个板块，比如航空股里的达美航空（DAL）和美联航（UAL），对比一下就知道怎么回事。比如航空股中，希腊航空为什么走势好、一直强？DAL和UAL基本一样，波动大，但希腊航空一直更强。

01:13:14

Just because Greek Airlines has been invested in by a radical investor, Enet, since the second half of last year, and Enet is making trouble, Greek Airlines is very stable. So, it’s interesting if you compare. If you only look at individual stocks, while some people look at many indicators, I don’t think it makes much sense.

01:13:14

因为希腊航空自去年下半年被激进投资者Enet入股，Enet在闹事，所以希腊航空很稳。所以对比很有意思。只看个股，有些人看很多指标，我觉得没多大意义。

01:13:35

But when you look at indicators, I want to emphasize that you should not look at the past. The most important thing is to look at the expected PE and growth rate in the future. In fact, I only look at three: one is the PE in the next year, one is the revenue growth rate, and one is the growth rate in the EPI era, which is the growth rate of earnings.

01:13:35

但看指标时，要强调别只看过去，最重要的是未来的预期市盈率和增长率。其实我只看三个：下一年市盈率、营收增长率、盈利增长率（EPI增长率）。

01:13:55

One is the revenue growth rate, one is the revenue growth rate that you can understand, and one is the profit growth rate. Then look at the valuation and then make an internal weighting. Of course, although I have selected many stocks, I actually always start from the fundamentals. After I have determined the band, the macro narrative and the melting of the sectors, I will copy and paste and proceed from the top to the bottom.

01:13:55

一个是营收增长率（大家能理解的），一个是利润增长率。然后看估值，做内部加权。当然，虽然选了很多股，但其实都是从基本面出发，确定波段、宏观叙事和板块轮动后，从上到下筛选。

01:14:25

When I introduce my own Class A later, I will talk about how I select stocks, but I basically analyze them based on fundamentals. Finally, the most exciting thing is that I think if you have the time or energy, don't look at any technical analysis. The most important thing for you now is to do option structure analysis. I saw an old Chen on Twitter. I don’t know this person, but he is doing this now.

01:14:25

后面介绍我自己的策略时会说怎么选股，但基本是基于基本面分析。最后，最有意思的是，我觉得如果有时间精力，别看图了，现在最重要的是做期权结构分析。推特上看到个老陈，不认识，但他在做这个。

01:14:48

I think, because I don’t quite understand it, I don’t know whether what he said is right or not, but I think his direction is reliable. I believe that option structure analysis is the real technical analysis of the future, and this is also the point that I will spend the most time to break through in the future. Basically, in the next six months or so, I plan to focus on option structure analysis.

01:14:48

我觉得，虽然不太懂，不知道他说的对不对，但方向靠谱。我相信期权结构分析是未来真正的技术分析，也是我未来要花最多时间突破的点。未来半年左右，打算专注期权结构分析。

01:15:10

I think this is the real technical analysis. It is very important. That’s all I can say. I think it is very important now. So now I think there are basically only two types of analysis, one is called fundamental analysis, and the other is called option structure analysis. The final point of any kind of analysis is that you need to form your own personal strategy.

01:15:10

我觉得这才是真正的技术分析，很重要。只能说这么多，现在觉得它非常重要。所以现在我认为基本只有两种分析：基本面分析和期权结构分析。任何分析最终都要形成自己的策略。

01:15:39

There is no so-called dragon-slaying sword that can conquer the world overnight, but you can form a strategy with your own probabilistic advantage. When it comes to analytical methods, you should not pursue perfection, because there is no perfection. Any analytical method has the probability of success and the probability of failure. Since I have been talking about options repeatedly, I will briefly introduce options because many people may not know much about them. Let

01:15:39

没有所谓的屠龙宝刀能一夜称霸， but 可以形成有概率优势的策略。分析方法上，别追求完美，没有完美的，任何方法都有成功和失败的概率。既然反复说期权，就简单介绍下，很多人可能不太了解。我来

01:16:07

me quickly explain that options are essentially a financial derivative, which means they are not underlying finance. The bottom layer is stocks, common stocks. It is actually a financial derivative of the underlying stock, that is, a derivative of the underlying stock. Then how was the option invented essentially? It is essentially to quantify time. To put it bluntly, time is money. How can this be reflected? It can be reflected after having options.

01:16:07

快速解释下，期权本质是金融衍生品，不是基础资产，底层是股票（普通股），是标的股票的金融衍生品。期权本质上是怎么发明的？本质是给时间定价，说白了，时间就是金钱，有了期权就能体现。

01:16:37

When options first came out in the 1970s, they were mainly used for hedging. It was not a mainstream way of playing, but now it is completely the most mainstream way of playing. And I think that now it basically accounts for one third. You can understand it this way, that is, one third is options and one third is underlying stocks.

01:16:37

70年代期权刚出来时主要用于对冲，不是主流玩法，现在完全是最主流的。我觉得现在占比基本三分之一，可以理解为三分之一是期权，三分之一是标的股票。

01:17:02

I think the proportion will be even higher. In the future, when people speculate in US stocks, I think a larger proportion, more than 50%, will be based on options, while transactions in underlying stocks will become less and less. Because options, as a financial color brand, seriously affect the underlying stocks. To use a rough analogy, the underlying stock is the father and mother, and the options are the children.

01:17:02

我觉得占比会更高，未来炒美股，超过50%会围绕期权，标的股票交易越来越少。因为期权作为金融工具，严重影响标的股票。粗略比喻，标的股票是父母，期权是孩子。

01:17:29

Now it is not the parents who decide the children, but the children who decide the parents. To put it simply, options mean that if I buy options, I have rights, and if I sell options, I take on obligations. Then if you buy options, if you buy a call option, you are going long; if you buy a put option, you are going short.

01:17:29

现在不是父母决定孩子，而是孩子决定父母。简单说，期权就是买期权有权利，卖期权有义务。买看涨期权是做多，买看跌期权是做空。

01:17:56

This is actually very easy to understand. It may sound a bit confusing, but everyone can understand it at a glance at this table. So, I only use one strategy at a time. For example, I only buy one option. What is the so-called long position? It means that I also buy a call option and sell a call option at the same time, or I buy two options with different dates at the same time. This is called long position.

01:17:56

其实很好理解，可能听着绕，但看表格一眼就懂。我一次只用一种策略，比如只买一个期权。所谓的价差策略（long position），就是同时买一个看涨期权和卖一个看涨期权，或同时买两个不同到期日的期权。

01:18:26

Everyone should understand this. Where is the final point? What is the final point of all our options? Whether we make money or lose money on options depends on the increase or decrease of the premium. The

01:18:26

大家应该明白。核心是什么？期权的核心是，赚钱还是亏钱取决于权利金的涨跌。

01:18:43

first factor that affects the premium is the price of the underlying stock. That is to say, if you see the right direction and the underlying stock goes up, you go long or you go short, and the underlying stock goes up, then there is a high probability that your option premium will go up. The second point is the value of time. As I

01:18:43

影响权利金的第一因素是标的股票价格。也就是说，看对方向，标的股票涨，做多的话，权利金很可能涨。第二是时间价值，正如我

01:19:01

just said, options are essentially the pricing of time. As your expiration date changes, time is decaying, and the closer you get to it, it's not a linear curve, it's an accelerating curve. The closer you are, the greater the attenuation, which means the greater your time loss. The most important thing in all of this is implied volatility. The simple explanation of implied volatility is that it predicts the approximate volatility of the stock in the next thirty days.

01:19:01

刚才说的，期权本质是时间的定价。随着到期日临近，时间价值衰减，不是线性曲线，是加速曲线，越近衰减越大，时间损失越大。其中最重要的是隐含波动率（IV），简单说就是预测未来30天股票的大致波动率。

01:19:34

Of course, it is deduced through a formula, which is called the option pricing model. The reverse calculation is to plug the option prices you trade every day into this formula and deduce your implied volatility. Because these things are extremely complicated, it is impossible to talk about them in today's sharing class, so I just list them out to let everyone know that there is a microcosm and let everyone know the most important implied volatility of options. The

01:19:34

当然，它通过期权定价模型推导出来，反向计算就是把每天交易的期权价格代入公式，算出隐含波动率。这些太复杂，今天讲不完，列出来让大家知道有这么个东西，知道期权最重要的隐含波动率。

01:20:15

difference between implied volatility and maturity date is that the change of implied volatility is very complex. We will not go into detail on this. We mainly talk about how to play options. In fact, generally speaking, there are only three types. That is to say, you use the leverage of options to gain leverage, so to put it bluntly, you are given leverage when you trade stocks.

01:20:15

隐含波动率和到期日的区别是，隐含波动率的变化很复杂，不细说了。主要说期权怎么玩，一般来说只有三种：一是利用期权的杠杆，说白了，炒股时加杠杆。

01:20:41

Here, the general leverage is equivalent to buying the underlying stock, which is usually 5 to 10 times. If it is a more recent expiration date option, returns of 20 times or even 100 times are very common. So the leverage varies with the date of your options. For options that are closer in time, the leverage is huge. I think for ordinary people, as long as the option leverage exceeds 5 times, you are basically gambling.

01:20:41

这里的杠杆一般是买标的股票的5-10倍，近期到期的期权，20倍甚至100倍回报很常见。所以杠杆随期权到期日变化，时间越近杠杆越大。我觉得普通人，期权杠杆超过5倍基本就是赌博。

01:21:07

This matter is no longer controllable because its volatility is too great. Therefore, the first thing to do when playing with options is to play with its leverage, and the second is the advanced way of playing, which is the volatility that options actually earn. It does n’t care whether your stock rises or falls, what it cares about is your volatility, that is, the rise and fall of the implied volatility itself mentioned just now. The

01:21:07

这事失控了，因为波动率太大。所以玩期权，一是玩杠杆，二是高阶玩法，赚波动率的钱，不管股票涨跌，只关心波动率（刚才说的隐含波动率的涨跌）。

01:21:34

money it makes from the rise and fall of implied volatility, not from the rise and fall of your stock itself. This is what is called making money from volatility. This is actually the main way for real professionals to play at present. Professionals rarely trade stocks directly. Many people trade volatility because for large funds like theirs, volatility has the lowest risk and relatively the highest return. Being

01:21:34

赚的是隐含波动率涨跌的钱，不是股票本身的涨跌。这就是所谓的波动率交易，是目前真正专业人士的主要玩法。专业人士很少直接交易股票，很多做波动率交易，因为对他们的大资金来说，波动率风险最低，回报相对最高。

01:22:01

able to be neutral is charity. No matter how your stock price goes up or down, it can make money purely from volatility. The third way of playing is what many people are playing, which is to sell options, covered calls, and then I collect some cash for selling options. I will introduce this later. I think it can make you make money immediately on the surface, but it is not suitable for retail investors. I will talk about this in detail later.

01:22:01

能保持中性就好，不管股价涨跌，纯靠波动率赚钱。第三种玩法是很多人在做的，卖期权、备兑看涨期权，赚权利金。后面会说，表面上能马上赚钱，但不适合散户，后面详细说。

01:22:42

In short, you can sort it out. There are mainly three ways to play options. One is to play with its leverage, one is to play with its volatility, and one is to play with its cash. For me, I am currently mainly playing with its leverage, and in the future, my plan is to play with volatility.

01:22:42

总之，整理下，期权主要三种玩法：玩杠杆、玩波动率、赚权利金。我目前主要玩杠杆，未来打算玩波动率。

01:23:02

What I am talking about now is options. Because I trade a lot, basically all of my trading is options. After trading for so many years, I do have some experience with options. I have summarized these experiences and would like to say that they are, in a preliminary sense, lessons I have learned after spending a lot of time and money. I would like to share with you my most sincere thoughts on several issues concerning options. The

01:23:02

现在说的是期权。因为我交易得多，基本全是期权。做了这么多年，确实有些经验，总结了一下，算是花了很多时间和金钱学到的教训。想分享几个关于期权的真切想法。

01:23:31

first problem is that many transactions now are called 0DTE, which means options that expire on the same day. So what is the current percentage of options that expire on the same day? I got this data from the US exchanges, which is very professional and accurate data. 0DTE alone accounts for 61% of all options. This is quite scary, quite scary.

01:23:31

第一个问题，现在很多交易是0DTE（当日到期）期权。目前当日到期期权占比多少？从美国交易所拿到的数据，很专业准确，仅0DTE就占所有期权的61%，很吓人。

01:24:01

This means that if you trade 5 million options every day, 3 million of them are 0DTE. Then, among these 3 million 0DTE options, how many were traded by retail investors? Retail investors traded 57%, which means that they traded more than institutions. The lower right picture shows retail investors, who trade more than institutional investors. So what do I want to point out the most? Options with an

01:24:01

也就是说，每天交易500万张期权，300万张是0DTE。这300万张里，散户交易了57%，比机构多。右下角数据显示散户交易多于机构。我最想指出的是：期限

01:24:32

interest rate of more than one month are only 16%. The real long-term options, which I will talk about later, are those that are more than one year, or more than nine months. Let's relax this a little. Options that expire in more than nine months, which we call Lips, or long-term options, account for less than 5%. You can understand it this way: there are 5 million options traded every day, and less than 100,000 are Lips.

01:24:32

超过一个月的期权只占16%。真正的长期期权（后面会说）是一年以上，或放宽到九个月以上，占比不到5%。可以理解为每天500万张期权交易，长期期权不到10万张。

01:25:04

95% of people trade options that expire within one month. This is the reality, and it is actually very terrifying. As for the 0DTE issue, I personally say very sincerely that I think this is a problem for retail investors, because retail investors have played too many games, and there are more than that. I think this is definitely gambling, and it is meaningless. In the long run, you will lose badly.

01:25:04

95%的人交易一个月内到期的期权，这是现实，其实很可怕。关于0DTE，我真心说，这是散户的问题，散户玩得太多了。我觉得这绝对是赌博，没意义，长期会亏得很惨。

01:25:36

Because 0DTE is extremely unfair, its IoT is extremely disadvantageous, making option buyers suffer greatly, and also putting option sellers at great risk. So there is a huge imbalance in the middle. There are many myths in 0DTE, that is, you can make 100 times or 1000 times your money instantly. There are many such myths, but the vast majority of people lose everything.

01:25:36

因为0DTE极不公平，对期权买方极其不利，让买方亏惨，卖方也风险大，中间严重失衡。0DTE有很多神话，说能瞬间赚100倍、1000倍，这样的神话很多，但绝大多数人亏光。

01:26:02

I think this 0DTE is pure gambling, so I strongly advise you not to do this. As for short-term options, many people want to do them, so-called options within three months. I can guarantee that if you look at the options and the people who post their orders, 99% of the orders posted by Jilang have an execution date within three months, which is very rare.

01:26:02

我觉得0DTE纯是赌博，强烈建议别做。至于短期期权，很多人想做三个月内的。我敢说，看那些晒单的，99%的单子期限在三个月内，很少有长的。

01:26:30

I think this short-term option has a large leverage. Why do people buy short-term options? Because they are cheap. Relatively speaking, the rights of options are much cheaper than forward options. Then the leverage was huge, and I always thought that if I did it right, I would be able to make a lot of money. But I personally feel that it is very difficult to make money with short-term options.

01:26:30

短期期权杠杆大，人们为什么买？因为便宜，相对远期期权，权利金便宜很多。然后杠杆大，总觉得做对了能赚大钱。但我个人觉得短期期权很难赚钱。

01:26:52

I play options every day. What do I play? I play MIPS. I have also told you all that I am telling you all without reservation because I think it doesn't matter. If you can learn something from me, I don't think I will try anything. I only do MIPS. I almost never buy options that expire within six months. I basically buy options that expire in more than nine months, mainly those that expire in about one year.

01:26:52

我每天玩期权，玩什么？玩长期期权（Lips）。毫无保留地说，因为觉得没关系，你们能学到东西就好。我只做长期期权，几乎从不买六个月内到期的，基本买九个月以上，主要是一年左右到期的。

01:27:21

This is actually a better strategy in my opinion. Why do only 5% of people adopt this strategy? As I said earlier, only 5% of options are MIPS because they appear to be too expensive and seem to be a disadvantage because if you hold on to MIPS in the long run, you are wasting your time.

01:27:21

我觉得这是个更好的策略。为什么只有5%的人用？如前所述，长期期权只占5%，因为看起来贵，而且长期持有好像吃亏，是浪费时间。

01:27:40

On the surface, it seems that you have done something stupid. You can understand it this way: among 100 traders, 95 people do the so-called right thing, and 5 people do stupid things. Do you think these five people are really stupid? I think not necessarily, because trading is essentially a game of cards.

01:27:40

表面看像做了蠢事。可以这么理解：100个交易者，95个做所谓正确的事，5个做蠢事。你觉得这5个真蠢吗？不一定，因为交易本质是零和游戏。

01:27:59

In fact, objectively speaking, I think that compared with those 95 people, these 5 people may have a higher chance of winning. Because if you stand on the side of 95 people, your opponents may actually make money, because the stock market is definitely a place where only a few people make money. Another example is Pelosi, the stock god that everyone often talks about. There are a lot of political opinions on the Internet, saying that Pelosi seems to have cheated or something.

01:27:59

客观说，我觉得和那95人相比，这5人可能胜率更高。因为站在95人那边，对手可能赚钱，股市肯定是少数人赚钱的地方。另一个例子，大家常说的“股神”佩洛西，网上很多政治观点说她好像作弊之类的。

01:28:32

When I am trading, I never discuss political issues, no matter what my political stance is. We can say very objectively that Pelosi is speculating in stocks and she has become the so-called God of the Valley in Congress. She is not talking about cheating or politics, it is her husband who trades stocks. Her husband's name is Paul Pelosi, and her husband is actually a master. Her husband mainly plays Lips.

01:28:32

我交易时从不谈政治，不管立场如何。客观说，佩洛西炒股，成了国会所谓的“股神”，不是说作弊或政治，是她丈夫交易股票。她丈夫叫保罗·佩洛西，其实是个高手，主要玩长期期权。

01:29:00

I have actually studied this for a long time. She has been following her husband Paul Pelosi's business strategy for a long time. She also has her share of gains and losses, but she has really played Lips very well. She usually buys options that expire in one year or even two years. For example, she bought chip stocks and also Apple.

01:29:00

我其实研究了很久，她（佩洛西）长期沿用丈夫保罗·佩洛西的交易策略，也有赚有亏，但确实把长期期权（Lips）做得很好。她通常买一年甚至两年到期的期权，比如买芯片股和苹果（Apple）。

01:29:24

In fact, she bought the two-year option at the lowest point in 2021 and bought it at the lowest point in 2022. Wouldn't she make a fortune by 2023 or 2024? She actually didn't cheat in politics. She really relied on the Lips strategy and played it very well. Many retail investors also like to do one thing, which is to sell options, that is, to make money influenced by Duan Yongping.

01:29:24

其实她在2021年低点和2022年低点买了两年期期权，到2023、2024年不就赚翻了吗？这并非靠政治作弊，而是真的靠长期期权策略做得好。很多散户还喜欢做一件事——卖期权，这其实受段永平影响。

01:29:59

Because Duan Yongping often says on the Internet that the best way to make money is to buy stocks. For example, if I buy 100 shares of Apple, I can sell one Apple option. I will hold these 100 shares of Apple forever anyway, so I sell options and then it is like collecting rent.

01:29:59

因为段永平经常在网上说，最好的赚钱方式是买股票，比如买100股苹果，然后卖一份苹果期权，反正打算长期持有这100股，卖期权就像收租金。

01:30:21

People will also make an analogy, saying that if I sell once a month, it is equivalent to buying a house, renting it out every month, and collecting rent every month. It sounds particularly good, as if it is a sure profit. Think about it, how could such a wonderful thing be possible? Selling options does allow you to earn cash, but it has two disadvantages. The

01:30:21

人们还打比方，每月卖一次就像买房收月租，听起来特别好，像稳赚不赔。但想想，哪有这么好的事？卖期权确实能赚点现金，但有两个缺点。

01:30:44

biggest disadvantage I think is that it will make you miss opportunities. That is, you may miss the opportunity to make the little money you earn directly when you go long on Apple's stock price. I think this is the first point. The second point is that when you short sell or sell options, you often can't help but increase the amount, double it, or add more.

01:30:44

我觉得最大的缺点是会错失机会，可能错过苹果股价直接上涨带来的大钱，这是第一点。第二点，做空或卖期权时，人往往忍不住加仓，翻倍甚至加更多。

01:31:11

Why? Because one Apple share is now 200 US dollars, and if you buy 100 Apple shares, it will cost you 20,000 US dollars. Then if you have 20,000 US dollars and cover the quote, you can sell one Apple option only if you have 20,000 US dollars. So people are often greedy. Let me give you a big example. I can't make a few dollars with this hand. I really can't make a few dollars with one hand.

01:31:11

为什么？现在苹果股价200美元，买100股要2万美元，有2万美元做备兑，才能卖1份期权。人一贪心就想，“这一手赚不了几个钱，不如多做两三手”。

01:31:35

You think, oh, I might as well make two or three more moves. What happens then? You are naked shorting. Because originally you could only cover one hundred shares, which is one option, but now you sell three lots, and you use two lots to engage in naked short selling, which is a huge risk. So if I put this together with cover the quote, I have been trading options for many years, and I never sell options myself. When

01:31:35

结果就成了裸卖空——原本只能覆盖100股（1份期权），现在卖3份，其中2份是裸卖空，风险极大。所以我做期权这么多年，从不卖期权。

01:32:06

selling options, one usually sells the near-dated option. It is impossible to sell forward options. One must sell the near-dated option, which expires within one month. So it will always make you participate in the volatility of options within this month, which is what I dislike the most, because I think at this time, the volatility of Ivy is very unpredictable, which means you take additional risks.

01:32:06

卖期权通常卖近期的，不可能卖远期的，必须卖一个月内到期的，这会让你被迫参与当月的期权波动，这是我最反感的，因为此时隐含波动率（IV）极难预测，等于承担额外风险。

01:32:38

So I think that the money earned from selling white flour is a bit exaggerated, but I don’t think it is very real. So for all these years, I have never sold options. Another point about trading options is that you have to trade low Ivy assets. So most of the time, I don’t get involved in popular stocks, because as long as it is a popular stock, its Ivy is usually above 80.

01:32:38

所以我觉得“卖面粉赚白菜钱”（风险与收益不对等）的说法有点夸张，但确实不现实。这么多年我从没卖过期权。交易期权还有一点：要做低隐含波动率的资产。大多时候我不碰热门股，因为热门股的隐含波动率通常超过80。

01:33:13

For example, the recent stocks or stablecoin stocks have very high Ivy, and many of them have an Ivy of 100. For example, the Oscar health insurance company we talked about yesterday, its Ivy is already 100. I don’t invest in these stocks. I basically won’t buy stocks with an Ivy rating greater than 40. The

01:33:13

比如近期的某些股票或稳定币相关股，隐含波动率很高，很多达到100，比如昨天说的奥斯卡健康保险公司（Oscar Health），隐含波动率已达100。我不投这些，基本不买隐含波动率超过40的股票。

01:33:33

most comfortable stock for option trading, especially Lips, is Ivy, which is less than 30. Those around 20 are generally options of large companies. This is very important because when Ivy grows up, bank fluctuations will prevent you from making money.

01:33:33

期权交易（尤其是长期期权）最舒服的是隐含波动率低于30，20左右的通常是大公司期权。这很重要，因为隐含波动率高时，波动会让你难赚钱。

01:34:01

So when Ivy is small, especially if you do it right, it can cause a double hit. First, you made the right decision in the right direction. Since the rise and fall of the stock caused the rise and fall of your option rights, you made a lot of money. Secondly, since Ivy may also rise or even skyrocket, you may buy cheaply when Ivy is low and make money when Ivy is high, so you need to double-click. I think this is the ideal situation.

01:34:01

隐含波动率低时，若做对方向，可能形成“双击”——既赚股价涨跌的钱，又赚隐含波动率上升的钱（低买高卖），这是理想情况。

01:34:32

For example, what is a typical double-click? For example, the large oil stocks of companies, such as ExxonMobil and XOM, the largest oil companies, generally have Ivy levels below 30, and often below 20. In the past, and now it may have increased a bit recently. So this kind of oil and this kind of standard are particularly good. Then if XOM Mobil Oil is rising every day, its Ivy itself will gradually decline.

01:34:32

比如典型的“双击”案例：埃克森美孚（XOM）等大型石油股，隐含波动率通常低于30，常低于20（近期可能略升）。这类股票很适合，如果XOM上涨，其隐含波动率会逐渐下降。

01:35:04

If you short at this time and succeed, then you will be the happiest person making money. First, its stock price plummets, and your equity amount increases. Then its Ivy will quickly soar from 20 to 30, or even 40. Your equity part and Ivy part will also rise, so you have to double-click.

01:35:04

若此时做空成功，股价暴跌让期权增值，隐含波动率从20飙升到30甚至40，期权的两个部分（股价和波动率）都赚钱，形成“双击”。

01:35:24

This is also a very important point in trading options, that is, you would rather wait for opportunities, or you would rather take risks on the left side of the trade, you should do both, and it is best to do this with a double click. This is what I mean bluntly. If you are doing a single-push option transaction, you must strive for a double click every time. There is

01:35:24

这是期权交易的重要点：宁愿等机会，或左侧承担风险，也要追求“双击”。直白说，做单腿期权交易时，每次都要争取“双击”。

01:35:49

actually another very good point about the option rights, which is that the price is actually calculated by a pricing model. However, this model itself was proposed by three buddies, and this model itself has a little loophole, that is, it does not adequately price low-probability events and so-called pseudo-fat events. If you bet right, you may make a fortune that is beyond your imagination. Let me give you a simple example here.

01:35:49

期权还有个好处：价格由定价模型计算，但这个由三位学者提出的模型有漏洞——对低概率事件和“伪胖尾”事件定价不足。若押对，可能赚超出想象的钱。举个简单例子：

01:36:23

A few years ago, I bought an AMC stock when it was only $2. When I bought it in early 21, it was less than $2. Later, the so-called GME incident suddenly occurred. At that time, there were mainly two stocks, and AMC also surged to more than 40 yuan.

01:36:23

几年前，我在AMC股价不到2美元时（2021年初）买入期权，后来因GME事件，AMC飙升到40多美元。

01:36:43

When I bought it, the underlying stock was less than 2 dollars, and it suddenly jumped to more than 40 dollars. How much do you think I earned from this option? For example, in this case, when the stock was more than 2 dollars, I sold it and closed my position, so I did not make any money.

01:36:43

我买入时股价不到2美元，后来涨到40多美元，你觉得期权赚了多少？但我在股价2美元多时就平仓了，没赚到大钱。

01:37:01

Options are actually underpriced for such long-term low-probability events. If you take this approach, you may be able to make a lot of money, especially if there is a so-called acquisition event in the United States or a new drug invention in the pharmaceutical sector, you can make extra money. But there is one more thing you need to be careful about when making money. If you do it wrong, the risk is huge.

01:37:01

期权对这类长期低概率事件定价不足，若押对，可能大赚，尤其是美国的并购事件或医药股的新药发明，能赚超额收益。但赚钱时要注意：做错了风险极大。

01:37:28

Because options can only be traded during opening hours, even when the market plummets, its IV may drop sharply, and you may not be able to sell it. But in fact, you can sell it. If you keep lowering the price, the market maker will definitely take your order in the end, but you will suffer huge losses, which is very devastating. When there were several such crashes, my options immediately lost 60%. This has happened to me several times.

01:37:28

因为期权只在开盘时交易，即使市场暴跌，隐含波动率可能骤降，你可能卖不出去；就算能卖，不断降价的话，做市商最终会接盘，但你会亏很惨，打击很大。几次暴跌时，我的期权瞬间亏60%，这种情况发生过好几次。

01:37:53

For example, when I bought IDM, its financial report exploded and its stock price dropped by 10%. I lost 70% of my option in one fell swoop, and I bought a forward option. So there are risks in this area. As for these popular questions, I actually hope that if you want to trade options, you must understand that the leverage of options is very large, especially short-term options.

01:37:53

比如买了IDM的期权，其财报爆雷，股价跌10%，我的期权一下亏70%，而且我买的还是远期期权。这方面有风险。关于这些常见问题，我希望想交易期权的人明白：期权杠杆很大，尤其是短期期权。

01:38:21

Or what is my own point of view, 0DTE, actually I call it an option within seven days. In addition to hedging my account, I may use 0.5% or 1% to hedge my entire account. If I use this 0DTE option, I never use it. This is something I definitely won't touch. And I hardly use options within three months.

01:38:21

我的观点是，0DTE（当日到期）甚至7天内的期权，除了用0.5%或1%仓位对冲整个账户，我绝不会碰。三个月内的期权我也基本不用。

01:38:50

I traded five or six thousand options within three months, and probably no more than 100. I haven't counted, so it's probably very few. Then I rarely use options within six months. My options are basically for 9 to 12 months later, these are my trading options. When I trade options, I basically look for IV, which must be less than 40. That’s basically the case. I rarely trade if it is greater than 40.

01:38:50

我交易过五六千笔期权，三个月内的可能不超过100笔（没具体算，但肯定很少），六个月内的也很少。我的期权基本是9-12个月到期，且隐含波动率必须低于40，超过40的很少做。

01:39:21

So I will combine these popular issues and tell you my own trading experience very realistically for your reference. I think most people are doing short-term options wrong, especially when they use leverage. It seems cheap to him, but I think the risk is too great and there is no room for maneuver. So I specifically marked it with a black background. Options are actually designed to give everyone a basic understanding of the entire transaction.

01:39:21

结合这些常见问题，我把真实交易经验分享给大家参考：多数人做短期期权是错的，尤其用杠杆时，觉得便宜，实则风险太大，没回旋余地。我特意用黑底标注：期权是为让大家对整个交易有基本理解。

01:40:08

Although only one-third, I think soon more than half will be centered around options. Specifically, it is the so-called position management. When it comes to position management, what exactly is the key position management in trading? I think the first thing is a question of whether or not you have the intention to manage your position. Many people don’t mean this. What does position management mean?

01:40:08

虽然目前期权交易占比三分之一，但很快会超过一半围绕期权展开。具体到仓位管理：交易中仓位管理的核心是什么？首先是有没有管理仓位的意识。很多人没有。仓位管理意味着什么？

01:40:34

You must understand that every time we trade, we do not just trade one stock. It is not because I see a certain stock is going to rise today, or I hear some news that a certain stock is going to rise. No, every trade I make is a strategic action that is subject to my overall position. So every trade must have a target, so what is my entire position? Asymmetry. The core of position management is these four words: asymmetry.

01:40:34

要明白：每次交易不只是交易一只股票，不是看到某只股票要涨或听消息就买，而是基于整体仓位的战略动作。每笔交易都要有目标，整体仓位要“不对称”——这是仓位管理的核心。

01:41:00

What you need to do is to build up an entire business situation so that if future developments meet your expectations when you built your position, you can earn more. Then if it doesn't meet your expectations, you lose less. Why? Just like what I said just now, at any time, this is a world of probability. No matter how confident your strategy is, you should never think that you will definitely win. No matter how

01:41:00

你要构建这样的仓位：若未来走势符合预期，多赚；不符合预期，少亏。为什么？如前所述，这是个概率世界，无论策略多有信心，都不能认为一定会赢。

01:41:28

confident you are in your strategy at any time, the moment you place an order, you are making expectations, making bets, and placing bets. So you should always expect that there are two possible outcomes after you place a bet. So your position management means that you have to design your position so that when it meets your expectations in the future, you will make a lot of money, and when it does not meet your expectations, you will lose the least. This is what is called position management.

01:41:28

无论策略多有信心，下单时都是在预期、下注，要做好两种结果的准备。仓位管理就是设计仓位，让符合预期时大赚，不符合时少亏。

01:41:53

Then to achieve this goal, you need to continue to practice and combine your entire transaction, which is a permutation and combination. It means which stocks you buy today, which stocks you don’t buy today, which stocks you go long, and which stocks you go short. In the end, you need to ensure that your positions are asymmetric at any point in time. It is

01:41:53

要实现这个目标，需不断练习，结合交易做组合——今天买什么、不买什么，做多什么、做空什么，最终确保任何时候仓位都是不对称的。

01:42:16

not like that. For example, if you hold 10 stocks today, you don't need to look at each individual stock today. You should look at the overall position formed by these 10 stocks. It is asymmetric, then you will be OK. This is also warehouse management. So everyone understands that when you build a position, you must have a trial and error mentality.

01:42:16

比如今天持有10只股票，不用看单只，要看这10只形成的整体仓位是否不对称，这样就没问题，这也是仓位管理。所以建仓时必须有试错心态。

01:42:42

This is related to what I just said, that is, in all our transactions, why do I not pursue the winning rate, but the odds and the break rate? It is because I always establish a trial and error mentality. Every time I open a position, even if I am sure, I will think, oh, I may lose this time.

01:42:42

这和我之前说的“不追求胜率，追求盈亏比和频率”相关——我总带着试错心态，每次开仓即使很确定，也会想“这次可能亏”。

01:43:03

Then I immediately thought about where to stop loss after I lost money, and how much impact my position might have after I lost money, causing a loss of 1% or 0.5% of my total position. When I open a position, this is the first thing I consider, not the profit I make.

01:43:03

然后立即想：亏了止损位在哪？亏了对总仓位影响多大（比如亏1%还是0.5%）。开仓时首先考虑这个，而非盈利。

01:43:21

Of course, I would definitely think, I made money, I made so much money, I would definitely think about that, but that is not what I really mean by becoming a manager. When I build a position every day, the first thing I think about is how much I will lose if I lose money. I will calculate it. Therefore, the mentality of trial and error is extremely important. I actually think that most people don’t have this mentality.

01:43:21

当然会想赚钱、赚多少，但这不是仓位管理的核心。每天建仓时，我先算亏了会亏多少。试错心态极其重要，多数人没有。

01:43:44

When making a transaction, everyone always thinks that after buying, they will make money immediately, and even start dreaming about how they will spend the money after making a lot of money. I think this is basically not a professional trader, basically just a traitor. Another point is that my idea is different from that of many people. I think charity also needs to be concentrated.

01:43:44

交易时，人们总想着买了就赚，甚至幻想赚大钱后怎么花，这基本不是专业交易者，只是赌徒。另一点和很多人不同：我认为仓位也需要集中。

01:44:10

For retail investors, first you should look at two to five major sectors, and then it will be enough to increase your total position to ten. Let me talk about this type of retail investors, that is, if your capital is below tens of millions of US dollars, I think this is enough. Then any time I suggest, you should hedge your bets, that is, anticipate the big picture of your positions in the future.

01:44:10

散户应关注2-5个主要板块，总仓位选10只股票足够（资金低于数千万美元的话）。任何时候都要对冲，预期未来走势符合时赚钱，不符合时有仓位弥补亏损。

01:44:38

When the trend is in line with your wishes, you should make money; when the trend is not in line with your wishes, you should have a position to make up for your losses. The same is true now. Since June 24, I have actually been long more than short, that is, I am net short. But even though I was losing money, the market was actually rising, but my losses were not particularly large because I always had hedges. The

01:44:38

比如6月24日以来，我净空仓，虽然市场上涨亏了点，但因有对冲，亏损不大。

01:45:05

last point to mention is to stop loss. As for stop loss, it is a hard stop loss. Let me introduce it in more detail. I myself use the ATR indicator, and then I basically choose 1.5 times the 7-day ATR as my stop loss. This indicator is available in any trading software. You just need to substitute it and you will know the result after checking.

01:45:05

最后说止损：我用ATR（平均真实波幅）指标，选7天ATR的1.5倍作为止损位，任何交易软件都有这个指标，代入即可算出。

01:45:25

For example, Apple’s ATR is probably around 3, or the 7-day ATR, but I can’t remember exactly. What does 1.5 times mean? 1.5 times means, for example, if you buy Apple at 210 yuan now, and 1.5 times is 4.5, then it drops by 4.5, and you set a stop loss at 205.55, which is a forced stop loss.

01:45:25

比如苹果的7天ATR约3，1.5倍就是4.5，若在210美元买入，止损位设205.5美元，强制止损。

01:45:47

Therefore, the stop loss should be 1.5 times ATR. Then, based on my experience, I think you should choose the 7-day ATR, or you can use the 14-day ATR, which is smoother.

01:45:47

因此，止损位设为1.5倍ATR。根据经验，可选7天或14天ATR（14天更平滑）。

01:46:01

But generally speaking, 1.5 to 2 times is more appropriate, and 2.5 times is also acceptable. I am currently using 1.5 times the amount of 7 days' worth. No, I am currently using 2 times the amount of 7 days' worth. Sometimes I use 1.5 times as much as the 14-day dose before, and now I use twice as much as the 7-day dose. There is

01:46:01

但一般1.5-2.5倍都合适，我目前用7天ATR的2倍（之前用14天的1.5倍）。

01:46:18

one more point about options. For me, as long as an option lasts for more than one month, I will not take it again, regardless of whether the government reaches the stop-loss point or not. I will consider that I have failed with this option.

01:46:18

期权还有一点：对我来说，期权到期时间超过一个月后，无论是否到止损位，都算这笔期权失败。

01:46:35

This brings me to the issue of my soft stop loss. Most of the time I will not wait for the stock to reach the stop loss level before I stop loss. When I have a large amount, I will stop loss in advance 75% of the time. That is to say, I would rather miss this opportunity, I would rather be wrong, than to force it.

01:46:35

这涉及“软止损”：多数时候不等股价到止损位就止损，75%的大额仓位会提前止损——宁愿错过机会、认错，也不硬扛。

01:46:51

Because I think an important point about trading is that your ability to control your losses is more important than your ability to make more money. So I use soft stop losses very often, and I don’t pursue a winning rate. We have talked about the transaction part in a more comprehensive way, especially I also talked about some of my actual operations during the process.

01:46:51

因为交易的重要一点：控制亏损的能力比多赚钱的能力更重要。我常用软止损，不追求胜率。交易部分讲得比较全面，包括我的实际操作。

01:47:33

In short, trading itself is actually a mathematics, not a finance. Finance is just its appearance. It is essentially a mathematical thing. You have achieved a positive expected value. So how do you do this? It is through your various strategies, analytical methods, fundamental analysis, and option structure analysis that you form your own foundation. Then you may adopt a trend-following strategy, or you may adopt a financial regression strategy to form a strategy, and finally you have an asymmetric usurpation of management.

01:47:33

总之，交易本质是数学，不是金融（金融只是表象）。实现正期望值，需通过策略、分析方法（基本面、期权结构分析），采用趋势跟随或均值回归策略，最终通过不对称的仓位管理。

01:48:18

Finally, after these have become your AGE, you will be able to achieve the goal of minimizing losses when things don’t go as planned and making the most money when things go as planned. This is how you can run. So the essence of trading is that it is actually very monotonous. All those fancy AGEs mentioned above will ultimately be reduced to a mathematical expectation value. You must always maintain your positive expectations and repeat this process every day.

01:48:18

最终，当这些成为你的习惯，就能实现“顺境大赚、逆境小亏”。交易本质很单调，所有花哨的策略最终都归结为数学期望值，要始终保持正期望，每天重复这个过程。

01:48:53

Finally, what I want to say about trading is that although we look at a lot of individual stocks or fundamentals, in the end, the essence of your trading is always the volatility of the trading. This is actually quite abstract, but I think this is also what the university of the stock market is saying. If you really want to enter this university, you must begin to understand volatility and trading volatility, and to put it bluntly, what individual stocks are.

01:48:53

最后，虽然我们看很多个股或基本面，但交易本质是交易波动率——这很抽象，但股市这所“大学”就是如此。若想进入这所大学，必须理解波动率、交易波动率。

01:49:23

I think let's use this analogy. If you only trade individual stocks, I think you are basically an elementary school student. If you start trading options, you are a middle school student. If you trade volatility, then you are a college student. The vast majority of retail investors are basically still at the level of elementary school students, so retail investors cannot make money. The

01:49:23

打个比方：交易个股是小学生，交易期权是中学生，交易波动率是大学生。多数散户还在小学阶段，所以赚不到钱。

01:49:43

third and last part is the market and transactions we just talked about. The final point is that you can build your own advantages by understanding the market and through administrative transactions. So what is your advantage actually? I use the red one, which is my own. You have to choose the time frame well, such as the band I choose; you have to choose the style well, for example, I actually focus on the gentleman's return. As for

01:49:43

第三部分也是最后：通过理解市场和交易构建自身优势。优势是什么？我用红色标注：选好时间框架（比如我选波段）、选好风格（比如我侧重均值回归）、分析方法（目前侧重基本面，未来学期权结构分析）。

01:50:14

analysis methods, I am currently focusing on fundamental analysis, so what I will learn in the future is option structure analysis. Then I choose options, I may make profit without loss, and I will never make temporary transactions unless I need to hedge. Then, when I manage my positions, I will always set up hedging to ensure that I make more money when my positions are profitable and lose less when they are losing. So I actually created this advantage for myself.

01:50:14

我选期权（不做临时交易，除非对冲）、仓位管理（始终对冲，确保赚多赔少）。这些优势是我自己创造的。

01:50:48

Then maybe because you have a different personality, a different amount of capital, and different time, you may be completely different from me. So I think this is a framework that you can use to think about it and form your own advantage. All the advantages are gained through the integration of your theory and practice. You can understand it as a knife, which is a sharp knife made through constant integration and then you use this knife to make money in the market.

01:50:48

因性格、资金、时间不同，你可能和我完全不同。这是个框架，可据此形成自己的优势。所有优势需理论与实践结合，像一把不断打磨的刀，用它在市场赚钱。

01:51:23

As for myself, my strategy is actually to return like a gentleman. I basically look for extreme situations. Whether it is the overall market, sectors or fundamentals, I basically trade on the left side, so I will bear a great risk of pullback. You can see that my entire logic is actually the same. Because I have to bear a great risk of drawdown, I stop loss very quickly every time.

01:51:23

我的策略是均值回归，找极端情况（市场、板块、基本面），左侧交易，因此承担较大回撤风险。我的逻辑是：因回撤风险大，每次止损都很快。

01:51:54

So my entire logic, my Level A is actually a logical closed loop, and my gentleman's return strategy, my stop-loss strategy, and my expected value ultimately rely on odds and frequency to win and obtain a greater expected value, all of which form a perfect closed loop. So I think I've basically built an A-level. I can also introduce the entire process of my own transaction and what it is like. Basically it is divided into five steps, the first step is the analysis process.

01:51:54

我的整个逻辑是个闭环：均值回归策略、止损策略、靠盈亏比和频率获取高期望值，形成完美闭环。我已构建了自己的交易体系，流程分五步，第一步是分析。

01:52:31

As for my analysis process, as I said just now, what is important to me is to identify the narrative of the market, what story the market is telling, and then the flow of sectors. This is the most important thing to me. Actually, I don’t pay much attention to individual stocks. After I look at the overall market and the sectors, I basically have a rough idea of individual stocks and I know where to pick them out.

01:52:31

我的分析过程：识别市场叙事（市场在讲什么故事）、板块轮动——这是最重要的，个股不太关注。看大盘和板块后，个股就有大致方向，知道从哪选。

01:52:54

I just need to find the most active and most momentum-rich stocks in this sector. So when I analyze, I must find this narrative based on fundamentals. Then, I only look at one band. I won't look too far ahead, and I won't make predictions about the second half of this year. Although I will have ideas, I don't really care what will happen to the US stock market in the second half of this year. What

01:52:54

只需找板块中最活跃、动量最强的股票。分析时基于基本面找叙事，只看一个波段，不预测太远（比如下半年美股走势）。

01:53:24

I am most concerned about now is the next wave. In fact, it is very obvious that the big fundraising bill has come out. Next Monday is the first trading day. It will have a certain trend, which will reflect the market's pricing of this big fundraising bill. Then I will observe it. So my analysis is not about prediction, but a story that I hope will emerge from the market, which I can observe, capture and identify. So that's my analysis. The

01:53:24

我最关注下一波走势。大筹款法案已出台，下周一（首个交易日）的走势会反映市场对该法案的定价，我会观察。我的分析不是预测，而是观察、捕捉市场可能出现的故事。

01:53:55

sectors are actually very similar to the overall market, and each sector has its own story. Therefore, the core point of the entire analysis is to identify, not to predict the future. After I came out, everyone can see very clearly that I really don’t know what the next wave will be like.

01:53:55

板块和大盘类似，每个板块有自己的故事。分析核心是识别，不是预测未来。我也不知道下一波会怎样。

01:54:16

Although I have made some bets, because I am building a position on the left side, I have to look at the market trend on Monday to identify the next wave. Then I will see whether I should quickly stop the loss of the position I bet on the left side, or whether I have made the right bet this time and I should increase my position. The second stock discount is relatively easier. It is what I just talked about, which is the stock discount from the top to the bottom.

01:54:16

虽有左侧建仓，但需看周一走势决定：是止损左侧仓位，还是加仓。第二步选股较简单，如前所述，自上而下选。

01:54:44

I seldom trade the broader market, so this one is quite interesting. In fact, many people only do macro trading, just trading the overall market, that is, trading SPY, and at most they also trade a QQQ, and maybe a Russell 2000. I actually seldom trade the overall market. I actually prefer to analyze the overall market before choosing individual stocks, because if I use options to trade individual stocks, their volatility will be greater than the overall market.

01:54:44

我很少交易大盘，很多人只做宏观交易（如SPY、QQQ、罗素2000）。我更愿分析大盘和板块后选个股——用期权交易个股，波动率比大盘大，押对了赚更多。

01:55:11

If I bet right, I would earn more. Then I think for individual stocks, there is often what I just said, that is, because the option pricing has not returned to its original level, there may be some surprises. So I personally choose to analyze the market and sectors, but what I often do is individual stocks. However, some ETFs are equivalent to a similar transaction to individual stocks.

01:55:11

个股期权定价可能未回归，有惊喜。我常交易个股，部分ETF也类似个股交易。

01:55:38

Then my entire position may not exceed 15%, but now it is actually getting less and less, often not exceeding 10%, and there has been no such position recently. What is the position called? It is called my long-term position. This long-term position is something I hold onto, and I don’t care whether it is a short-term or a gain or loss, I am really prepared to hold it for a while.

01:55:38

我的长期仓位不超过15%（现在更少，常低于10%），这部分持仓不在乎短期盈亏，准备持有一段时间。

01:56:01

For example, I recently looked at a stock called VFC, which is a clothing stock. I have actually said it several times on Twitter that I am indeed optimistic about this stock. I plan to hold the business for the long term, but I haven't opened a position yet. If I assume a position, I will probably hold it for the long term. I might buy options for next June, and then I might hold it until late July and then see if it moves forward.

01:56:01

比如近期看的服装股VFC，在推特提过几次，计划长期持有（还没建仓），若建仓可能买明年6月的期权，持有到7月底再看。

01:56:40

I don't care whether it goes up or down before late July. This kind of stock is in my position, I call it a long-term position, it actually does not exceed 10% of my total position, and now it is getting less and less, I seldom do it.

01:56:40

7月底前涨跌都不在乎，这类长期仓位占总仓位不超过10%，现在更少做。

01:56:52

My main positions, 90% of my positions, are all swing positions. Then I may have a position of no more than 1%, which is used for hedging. This is what stocks and position building mean. In fact, I basically talked about these two together. When building a position, don't be afraid of making mistakes. I personally think that one of my biggest characteristics is that after I build a position, I am never afraid of making mistakes and I stop losses quickly.

01:56:52

90%仓位是波段仓位，还有不超过1%的对冲仓位。这就是选股和建仓。建仓时别怕错，我最大特点是建仓后不怕错、止损快。

01:57:22

One year I traded a stock that still has a very clear impression on me. WFG is a Canadian timber company. At that time, I bet it would go up, and I even forgot that its IPR would go up. I should have bet it would go up.

01:57:22

有一只股票印象深刻：WFG（加拿大木材公司）。当时押它上涨，甚至忘了其知识产权会升值，本该押涨的。

01:57:37

However, I built positions in this stock seven times in a row and lost money six times. It was only on the seventh time that I made money. Of course, each time a position is established, it may be two or three days, or three to five days apart.

01:57:37

但连续7次建仓，6次亏损，第7次才赚钱（每次间隔两三天到五六天）。

01:57:48

That is to say, you should not have any negative psychological suggestions to yourself because of the failure of building a position. I don't think so. It's best if you don't have any suggestions at all. It is normal for you to fail every time you build a position; success is accidental. But you must set a good stop loss. As for trading, we have actually talked about it before, which is the general stop loss and take profit.

01:57:48

不要因建仓失败而自我暗示，最好不要有任何暗示。建仓失败正常，成功是偶然，但必须设好止损。交易中的止盈止损如前所述。

01:58:17

In fact, there is also dynamic stop-profit in trading. I also use ATR to explain this, but in fact I don’t use it very often. I usually use the profit and loss ratio. For example, if I do options like Lips, the loss I am willing to accept is about 15%, and the profit I am willing to accept is basically around 50%, so my profit and loss ratio is basically 3 to 1. The

01:58:17

交易中也有动态止盈，我用ATR解释过，但不常用，通常用盈亏比：比如长期期权，能接受15%亏损，目标50%盈利，盈亏比3:1。

01:58:48

last point I want to mention is that I actually keep records of every transaction I make, which is actually very, very important. Recording this matter is very, very important, because only by recording every transaction you make can you know, not to mention your specific gains and losses, your overall transaction win rate, failure rate and calculate your expected value, and the profit and loss ratio to calculate your expected value.

01:58:48

最后一点：每笔交易都记录——这极其重要。只有记录，才能知道总胜率、失败率，计算期望值和盈亏比。

01:59:16

So recording transactions is a must, and then I often review them. I used to have a small group. Basically, I would review my recent transactions in the group every once in a while. So my entire trading process is basically a process of analysis, position building, trading, and review. Recording every transaction is very boring, but it is definitely useful.

01:59:16

记录是必须的，还要复盘。我以前有个小群，会定期复盘近期交易。我的交易流程是“分析-建仓-交易-复盘”，记录虽枯燥但绝对有用。

01:59:45

What I am talking about now, regarding the so-called manufacturing industry, is actually what it is? It is a bit like a manual job, where there is only a master and an apprentice, and there is actually no objective standard. So I talked about my own situation here, and then I shared some of my own insights, trying to help everyone understand, and then you have to build your own industry. There is

01:59:45

交易像手艺活，只有师傅和学徒，没有客观标准。我分享了自己的情况和见解，希望帮大家构建自己的交易体系。

02:00:15

no objective standard here, so let me talk about my understanding of the US stock market. The first and most important point is that everything is based on stage rules, allowing profits to run. This actually includes two levels of meaning. The first level is when we make each specific transaction. When you trade each order, if you want to stop loss, you must stop loss quickly. A hard stop loss is a must.

02:00:15

没有客观标准，说说我对美股交易的理解：第一，最重要的是“阶段规则”，让利润奔跑。这有两层意思：单笔交易要快止损（硬止损）。

02:00:46

This is the stage loss. Don't take profit easily, you have to earn enough, and this refers to one transaction. But this sentence is actually more profound, and it actually reveals some of the truths of your entire position management. For example, you have five stocks in your portfolio, and you have held one of them for more than a month, but it is always losing money, or is on the verge of collapse. What should you do at this time? Stage loss.

02:00:46

不轻易止盈（赚够），这指单笔交易。但这句话更深刻，揭示仓位管理的真谛：比如组合中某股持仓一个多月还亏或濒临崩溃，要“阶段止损”。

02:01:14

You just throw these stocks away, and then you take out the funds and do other things, including increasing your holdings in your strongest stocks. What concept does it also include? In the market, when you are truly following the so-called trend, you must follow it and let the profits run. Many people here have mentioned the words in the memoirs of a great stock writer, which is that you make money with the so-called trend. Why can you make money? It is

02:01:14

抛掉这些股票，把资金投入更强的股票——这包含顺势而为、让利润奔跑的理念。很多人提到交易大师的话：靠趋势赚钱，不是因频繁交易，而是持仓不动，趋势来时顺势赚钱。

02:01:44

not because of your flat trading, but because you take out the ticket and do not move it, and then when the trend occurs, you make money by following the trend. So this sentence is really profound. It not only talks about a single transaction of your individual stock, it also talks about the management of your position. In fact, it also talks about the true meaning of following the big trend, which is to say that you must be able to take out the ticket.

02:01:44

这句话很深刻，不仅说个股交易，还说仓位管理和顺势而为的真谛——要能持仓不动。

02:02:08

So these are my three levels of understanding, and I feel it is very necessary to talk about them. As for the second point, especially if you are still losing money, because I have experienced very large losses myself, I am slowly climbing up and I have definitely not made back my money yet. My capital is what I earned the most when I was making money. I definitely haven’t made my money back yet, so I’m in the process of climbing up the ladder now. At

02:02:08

这是我的三层理解，有必要说。第二点，若还在亏损（我曾大亏，现在还在爬坑，没回本），要明白：

02:02:45

this time, I realized that it’s not just this, many times all your transactions come down to your psychological challenge. After you buy it today, this gesture does not meet your expectations. Do you believe in yourself or not? In the end, you still have to believe in yourself. This point is very subtle, but if you want to be a successful trader, all successful traders must have a kind of self-confidence that comes from the heart. It 's really confidence that comes from the heart.

02:02:45

很多时候，交易最终是心理挑战。买后走势不符合预期，要相信自己——成功交易者都有发自内心的自信。

02:03:17

Just don't worry. Then there is a sentence I quoted here that I particularly like, which is that you should not think too much, just do it. For example, I want to say, try and error, if you lose, you lose, just stop loss. In a daze, you have almost made enough money. If you earn almost enough money, it means you are really making money.

02:03:17

别担心。我喜欢一句话：“别想太多，做就对了”——试错，亏了就止损，不知不觉就赚够了（真赚钱时就是这样）。

02:03:42

Therefore, you must always have confidence in yourself, constantly encourage yourself, and believe that you are doing OK and have done most of the work. Another point that Occam mentioned is what I like very much, which is that you must focus on making money itself, not the transaction. Of course, this is really difficult to achieve. I myself am not good at this aspect. There are many times when I forget to make money because of the pleasure of trading.

02:03:42

要对自己有信心，不断鼓励自己。奥卡姆剃刀原理我很喜欢：专注于赚钱本身，不是交易——这很难，我也常因交易快感忘记赚钱。

02:04:17

In this regard, I actually want to mention the problem of information overload. Sometimes, whether you are reading articles, listening to analysts’ opinions, or checking Twitter, you are actually overloaded. Twitter, especially Twitter has too much information. Many people are like that, that's it, including me. You don't need to read so much. Another point is that position management is also important, which is actually quite important.

02:04:17

还要注意信息过载：读文章、听分析、刷推特都可能过载，推特信息太多，包括我在内，其实不用看那么多。仓位管理也很重要。

02:04:49

For example, if I still have abundant funds now and some of my positions have already started to make money, I should actually invest this money in the positions that have already made money rather than in opening new positions. So this is also one of my biggest experiences.

02:04:49

比如资金充裕且部分仓位赚钱时，应加仓赚钱的仓位，而非开新仓——这是我的重要经验。

02:05:03

Of course, as you can see from what I said, I am always grasping the overall situation. Whether it is from the perspective of market analysis, from the perspective of the market, or from the perspective of trading, or from the perspective of positions, you have to look at the overall situation and the whole. Don't just focus on how the stock I bought today is doing, that's meaningless.

02:05:03

如前所述，要着眼整体（市场分析、交易、仓位），别只关注自己买的股票，很多人过不去这关。

02:05:25

The point is that many people cannot get around this hurdle, especially if you want to make it back after losing money, it is really difficult for many people to get around this hurdle. But what I want to say here is that I think no matter how much money you make or how much money you lose, each of them is a chip. The money

02:05:25

尤其亏损后想回本，很难。但我想说：无论盈亏，钱只是筹码。

02:05:47

I earned and the money I lost could actually be enough to make me jump off a building several times, but I think they are just chips and not even money. So you must have this ability. After you practice to this level and have this idea, what is the worst association? Every time you make money or lose money, you start to think about what you can do with the money. This is the worst association.

02:05:47

我赚的和亏的钱，够死好几次了，但它们只是筹码，不是钱。必须有这认知，否则每次盈亏都想怎么花，交易只会更难。

02:06:17

For example, you make $200,000 now and you think, wow, I can buy a car. The more you think like this, and the more you value the whole thing, the more difficult it will be for you to trade. I never think so. If I lose 500,000, I don’t think it’s a big amount. I think it’s great. If I lose it, I lose it.

02:06:17

比如赚20万就想买车，越在意，交易越难。我从不想这些，亏50万也觉得没什么。

02:06:41

So I think this is actually very important, especially when you are currently losing money, you should not care about the money. Of course, the key to trading is always patience. So I don’t like this kind of short-term options, because after you use short-term options, your leverage is too large. For options within three months, your leverage is basically more than ten times. Based on my own experience, I think that once it exceeds five times, the situation is out of control.

02:06:41

这很重要，尤其亏损时，别太在意钱。交易的关键是耐心。我不喜欢短期期权，因杠杆太大（三个月内期权杠杆常超10倍），根据经验，杠杆超5倍就失控了。

02:07:14

We have just talked about trading for a long time. All transactions are to ensure your positive expected value. You must control it and keep your positive expected value forever. This is your real win. If your leverage reaches more than five times, you will not be able to control the expected value at all. You cannot control it at all. So you would rather reduce leverage, which allows you to be patient. The

02:07:14

所有交易都是为确保正期望值，要控制并保持正期望——这才是真正的赢。杠杆超5倍就控制不了期望值，宁愿降杠杆，保持耐心。

02:07:43

last point is actually very important, that is, in the end all stock market transactions themselves always test your biggest weakness. Not only will it challenge your greatest weakness, it will also challenge your weakness at an accelerated and more intense level. Let me give you an example. For myself, one of my biggest weaknesses is that I have very broad interests. It was the same when I started my Internet business. My colleagues in the team often criticized me for having one idea today and another idea next year.

02:07:43

最后一点：股市交易最终会考验你的最大弱点，且会加速、加剧挑战。比如我的弱点是兴趣太分散（做互联网时同事就说我想法多变）。

02:08:19

In fact, this is my weakness. When I was trading, I found that I also had the same weakness. And how do you do transactions? When I was working in the physical Internet industry, I might only come up with an idea once a week. Trading is not like this now. You can have many ideas at the moment of trading, and then you can deny a new idea at any time.

02:08:19

交易中也如此：做互联网时可能一周一个想法，交易时瞬间有很多想法，又随时否定。

02:09:09

So I want to make this clear, your biggest weakness will definitely be quickly experienced in your trading, and your trading is a struggle between you and yourself, and it will definitely challenge you at your weakest point, and then you need to overcome it. How did I overcome it? I think I haven't overcome it yet and I'm still in the process.

02:09:09

所以我想说明白，你最大的弱点一定会在交易中很快显现，交易就是你与自己的斗争，它一定会在你最薄弱的地方挑战你，而你需要去克服它。我是如何克服的？我认为自己还没克服，仍在努力的过程中。

02:09:38

My problem is that I change stocks and adjust my portfolio very quickly. This is really my biggest weakness right now. I am still in the so-called self-struggle.

02:09:38

我的问题是换股和调整组合太快，这确实是我目前最大的弱点，我仍处于所谓的自我斗争中。

02:09:53

What are the three suggestions? First, I think that in the end, trading means you have to learn. If you don't study, other people, to put it bluntly, those institutions are basically people with high IQs, they are smarter than us, more hardworking than us, and have information advantages, machine advantages, and all kinds of advantages over us. How do you make money? How do you make money from others? So learning is the minimum. The second is self-discipline.

02:09:53

三个建议是什么？第一，我认为交易最终意味着你必须学习。说白了，如果你不学习，其他机构里的人基本都是高智商，他们比我们聪明、比我们勤奋，还拥有信息优势、机器优势以及各种我们没有的优势。你怎么赚钱？怎么从别人那里赚钱？所以学习是最基本的。第二是自律。

02:10:25

What does self-discipline ultimately achieve? You think that having a strict maximum success rate is a bit philosophical. The more self-disciplined you are, the less ego you have. Finally, you can truly thrive in this market and go with the flow. This is what I mainly talked about today, which took me about two hours. Actually, I didn’t speak very well, but it was indeed my most sincere sharing.

02:10:25

自律最终能达到什么效果？你会觉得，拥有严格的最高成功率略带哲学意味。你越自律，自我就越少。最终，你才能真正在这个市场中立足，顺势而为。这就是我今天主要分享的内容，花了大约两个小时。其实我说得不太好，但确实是最真诚的分享。

02:10:56

Finally, let me talk about one of my tool kits. I will post the address of this piece on Twitter. You don’t need to remember it now, I will definitely post it on Twitter. There are some main websites, let me talk about them briefly. The first is that if you want to do fundamental analysis, I recommend SakeAlpha, which is a must-have.

02:10:56

最后，说说我的工具包。我会把相关链接发到推特上，你们现在不用记，我肯定会发的。有几个主要网站，简单说一下。第一，如果你想做基本面分析，我推荐SakeAlpha，这是必备的。

02:11:17

Basically, this website provides all kinds of fundamental information and commentary articles on each stock, which I think is one of the must-haves. As for Bloomberg, I recommend Financial Juice, which is free and can show your daily transactions in real time. I will turn on Financial Juice, which can push news in real time every day, that is, stock market news.

02:11:17

这个网站基本上提供每只股票的各种基本面信息和评论文章，我认为是必备工具之一。至于彭博社（Bloomberg），我推荐Financial Juice，它是免费的，能实时显示每日交易情况。我会打开Financial Juice，它每天会实时推送新闻，也就是股市新闻。

02:11:47

I don’t use the Qoffin trading desktop myself, but I will take a look at it occasionally, maybe every one or two days. Another one I recommend is MarketInout, which is actually a filter and it is paid. This interface is extremely ugly, but if you are not a programmer, it is very convenient for you to use it, because it can set up a filtering mode.

02:11:47

我自己不用Qoffin交易桌面，但偶尔会看一下，大概一两天一次。另一个推荐的是MarketInout，它其实是个筛选工具，需要付费。界面极其难看，但如果你不是程序员，用起来会很方便，因为它可以设置筛选模式。

02:12:18

Then this is also used by many retail traders, mainly one is to read the news, and the other is to look at the filter. Its filter is too rough compared to this one. This one is very fine. This MarketInout is a very delicate filter. I use it every day now, I use it almost every day.

02:12:18

很多散户也用它，主要一是看新闻，二是看筛选结果。和MarketInout相比，其他工具的筛选太粗糙了，它的筛选非常精细。我现在每天都用，几乎天天用。

02:12:36

For example, the stocks that we just mentioned that are screened out and are more than three standard deviations from the 200-day moving average, I used MarketInout to screen them. I use this a lot, but it's a paid option. Then, where is Treeway commonly used for drawing? It is often used when you are comparing several pictures, especially for contrast.

02:12:36

比如我们刚才提到的那些偏离200日均线超过3个标准差的股票，我就是用MarketInout筛选出来的。我经常用这个工具，但它是付费的。至于Treeway，画图时常用，尤其是对比几张图的时候，特别适合做对比。

02:12:58

For example, the ratio. I should actually say something about this. In fact, when you look at it, you don’t necessarily have to look at individual stocks. For example, I will look at XLE, which is the energy sector, compared to the overall market. I will look at this ratio to determine its band flow.

02:12:58

比如比率方面，我其实应该说一下。事实上，看盘时不一定非要盯着个股。比如我会看能源板块ETF（XLE）相对于整体市场的比率，通过这个比率来判断板块的波段流向。

02:13:21

However, this ratio can also be compared with each other, for example, if you compare DNL with UIL, you can see the strength of the two stocks over a period of time. If you look at it graphically, it will be more intuitive. This is also paid, and it is something I must watch and use every day. There are actually many more websites, I will just briefly mention them.

02:13:21

不过，这个比率也可以用来对比个股，比如对比DNL和UIL，能看出一段时间内这两只股票的强弱。图形化展示会更直观。Treeway也是付费的，我每天都必须看和用。其实还有很多网站，简单提这些就好。

02:13:45

I would also like to say that I strongly recommend that you subscribe to my substack. The reason why I don’t really want to be on Twitter is because Twitter is too fragmented. I think I still want to be more systematic. It would be better for me to write an article every once in a while, maybe a few days, or maybe a week or two. Why? Because it fragments and affects my swing trading.

02:13:45

我还想说，强烈推荐大家订阅我的Substack。我不太想在推特上活跃，因为推特信息太碎片化了。我还是想更系统一些，隔一段时间写一篇文章，可能几天一篇，也可能一两周一篇。为什么？因为碎片化的信息会影响我的波段交易。

02:14:10

My swing trading has been too fragmented recently. My swing trading has become a bit like short-term trading. I think there is a problem. I still have to go back to swing trading. So I may write more articles in the future, so you can also subscribe to me. It is free at the moment, but we may consider charging for it in the future. Let’s see. After reading this, I became interested in writing it down. This is the website part.

02:14:10

我最近的波段交易变得太碎片化了，有点像短线交易，我觉得这有问题，还是得回到波段交易的正轨。所以未来可能会多写些文章，大家可以订阅我的Substack。目前是免费的，以后可能会考虑收费，看情况吧。说到这里，就想把这些写下来，这就是网站工具部分的内容。

02:14:36

Then, regarding books, this is actually my first point. I would like everyone to watch the video below. I recommend a video by Peter Bryant. A kind-hearted person also made a Chinese version on Bilibili. It is very good, very good. He explained the entire trading system very completely. I have actually seen this guy on Twitter. He is an old man. I really dislike his political views, but I still respect him very much when it comes to trading.

02:14:36

然后是书籍方面，首先我想让大家看下面这个视频。推荐Peter Bryant的视频，有人好心在B站做了中文版，非常好，他把整个交易体系讲得很透彻。我在推特上见过他，是个老头。我真的不认同他的政治观点，但在交易方面，我还是非常尊重他的。

02:15:05

Of course, I don’t really agree with his various trading strategies, but he explained it very well and I would like to recommend it. Please go and watch these five videos, the Chinese version. I would like to thank the kind translator. I don’t know who did this good deed. In fact, it is the same as what I am doing now, it is really free sharing. There

02:15:05

当然，我不完全认同他的各种交易策略，但他讲得很好，所以推荐给大家。一定要去看这五个视频的中文版，感谢那位好心的译者，不知道是谁做了这么好的事。其实这和我现在做的一样，都是免费分享。

02:15:21

are actually quite a few good books in the library sector. I gave them a score of five, and they are all very good. In fact, the second book I particularly want to introduce is "The Most Important Thing About Investing", written by Howard. I think this book is the trading book that has had the greatest impact on me. It is very good. It really forms the main logic of my gentleman's return strategy, which comes from the most important thing in investment.

02:15:21

书库里其实有不少好书，我给打五分的都是非常棒的。其实我特别想介绍的第二本书是霍华德·马克斯写的《投资中最重要的事》。这本书对我的交易影响最大，非常好，我“君子回归”策略的主要逻辑就来源于这本书。

02:15:45

I have read this book at least three times. Many of the books that I gave a score of five are definitely worth reading twice, at least twice. For example, the titles of "The King of Hedge" and "The Legend of Quantitative Investment on Wall Street" are extremely ridiculous translations, but the content actually talks about the entire quantitative process of US stocks very well. When I give it a five-point recommendation, please recommend it to everyone.

02:15:45

这本书我至少读了三遍。很多我打五分的书，绝对值得读两遍，至少两遍。比如《对冲之王》和《华尔街量化投资传奇》，书名翻译得极其离谱，但内容把美股的整个量化过程讲得很好。我给这两本打五分推荐，大家可以看看。

02:16:15

Some of these books are available on WeChat, and some are only available in PDF format. You can search for them yourself. That’s all I’m going to share today. Finally, as we are talking about Level A, one of my favorite things is, I will not read the English version because my English is not that good, you can just read it by yourselves. What

02:16:15

这些书有的在微信上能找到，有的只有PDF版，大家可以自己搜一下。今天的分享就到这里。最后，说到A级（Level A），我最喜欢的一句话，英文版我就不读了，我英语不太好，你们自己看吧。

02:16:37

I want to say in Chinese is that it also talks about Level A, which is a sharp edge of a knife that is very difficult to cross and difficult to be rescued. In fact, it is what I just said, that in the end all transactions are battles with yourself, and it is actually very difficult to defeat yourself. It's a constant grind that costs a lot of money, time and energy. Finally, I wish everyone can overcome themselves and achieve success in their own transactions.

02:16:37

用中文来说，它讲的是A级（Level A）就像刀刃，很难跨越，也很难回头。其实就像我刚才说的，最终所有交易都是与自己的斗争，战胜自己真的很难，需要不断打磨，付出大量金钱、时间和精力。最后，祝大家都能战胜自己，在交易中取得成功。

02:17:12

Today's post is about the field of running transfer. I hope it can be helpful to everyone. Thank you. Thank you all for spending three hours listening to my talk. That’s it. Thank you everyone.

02:17:12

今天的内容是关于交易领域的分享，希望能对大家有帮助。谢谢大家花三个小时听我讲，就这样，谢谢大家。

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#港美股

上次更新: 2025/11/13, 11:34:16

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