段永平采访-价值投资篇上
生意模式最重要，成长率没有任何意义 Business model is the most important, and growth rate means nothing.
# Q1: 什么是投资？（What is investing?）
段永平： 在我来讲，投资就是拥有一家公司的部分或者全部，最简单的概念就是“拥有”。换句话说，就是找到一个最好的公司，然后把你的钱投入进去，比较无风险利息和企业利润回报，寻找较好且自己认为足够安全的。要提醒的是，成长率对我来说没有任何意义。假设某家公司去年每股赚一块，今年赚两块钱，成长率百分之百，有人说明年可能还会再涨。后年呢？后年不知道。
Duan Yongping: For me, investing means owning part or all of a company. The simplest concept is "ownership." In other words, it's about finding the best company and putting your money into it — comparing risk-free interest rates with corporate profit returns, and looking for something that seems good and safe enough to you. I should also emphasize that growth rate means nothing to me. Suppose a company earned one yuan per share last year and two yuan this year — that’s 100% growth. Some may say it will rise again next year. But what about the year after? That remains unknown.
# Q2: 在你看来，什么是投资中重要的事？（What are the important things in investing, in your opinion?）
段永平： 大概是这几点：
- 买股票就是买公司。同样价钱下买的公司，是不是上市并没有区别，上市只是给了退出的方便而已。
- 公司未来现金流的折现就是公司的内在价值，买股票应该在公司股价低于其内在价值时买。至于应该是40%还是50%（安全边际）还是其他数字，完全由投资人自己的机会成本情况来决定。
- 未来现金流的折现不是算法，是思维方式，不要企图拿计算器去算出来。
- 不懂不做，能力圈是一个人判断公司内在价值必要而不充分的条件。
- “护城河”是用来判断公司内在价值重要而不唯一的手段。
- 企业文化是“护城河”的重要部分。很难想象一个没有很强企业文化的企业，可以有很宽的“护城河”。
Duan Yongping: Probably these points:
- Buying stocks is buying companies. At the same price, whether the company is listed or not makes no difference — listing just provides convenience for exiting.
- A company's intrinsic value is the present value of its future cash flows. Stocks should be bought when their market price is below intrinsic value. Whether the margin of safety should be 40%, 50%, or another number depends entirely on the investor's opportunity cost.
- Discounting future cash flows isn't an algorithm; it's a way of thinking. Don’t try to calculate it with a calculator.
- Don't invest in what you don't understand. Your circle of competence is a necessary but insufficient condition for judging intrinsic value.
- Economic moats are an important but not exclusive way to judge intrinsic value.
- Corporate culture is an essential part of economic moats. It's hard to imagine a company without strong corporate culture having a wide economic moat.
# Q3: 什么是好公司？（What is a good company?）
段永平： 如果你一直关注的话，好公司出现时，你就有可能会意识到了。
Duan Yongping: If you've been paying attention, when a good company appears, you might realize it.
# Q4: 买入什么样的公司能让你夜夜安枕？（What kind of company can let you sleep well at night?）
段永平： right business，right people，right price。business是商业模式，people是企业文化。强大的生意模式加上强大的企业文化，加上过得去的价格，持有这样的公司可以睡得好。
Duan Yongping: Right business, right people, right price. Business refers to the business model, and people refer to corporate culture. Holding a company with a strong business model, strong corporate culture, and a reasonable price allows you to sleep well.
# Q5: 在重要性上，你对这三个要素做个排序？（Can you rank the importance of these three elements?）
段永平： price没有那么重要，business和people最重要。商业模式和企业文化，这两样东西中任意一样不喜欢，我就不会再继续看下去。最重要的还是要看商业模式，不然很容易只见树木，不见森林，全部盯着眼前这一个月、一个季度的波动来决定买卖的行为，这样是很难做投资的。如果生意模式我喜欢，前提当然至少是我懂了，企业文化也很好，那就老老实实等好点的价钱。我突然觉得，自己这么多年投资表现不错，确实是有道理的，感谢老巴（巴菲特）的点醒。我当年问老巴：什么东西您会首先考虑？“生意模式”！对呀，就这么简单。不过，明白什么叫生意模式是非常难的，简单的东西都很难。我也没法告诉你，必须自己去悟，就好比如果你不打高尔夫，我无法告诉你它的乐趣。
Duan Yongping: Price isn't that important; business and people are most important. If I don't like either the business model or the corporate culture, I won't continue evaluating further. The most critical thing is still the business model. Otherwise, you might easily focus only on individual trees rather than the entire forest, making buy/sell decisions based solely on monthly or quarterly fluctuations — which makes investment very difficult. If I like the business model, assuming of course that I at least understand it and the corporate culture is also good, then I'll patiently wait for a better price. Suddenly, I realized why my investment performance has been decent over the years — thanks to Warren Buffett's insights. I once asked Buffett: What do you consider first? “The business model!” Yes, that simple. However, understanding what a business model really means is very difficult — even though it sounds simple. I can't explain it to you directly; you must figure it out yourself, just like I can't tell you the joy of golf if you’ve never played.
# Q6: 什么是好的商业模式？（What is a good business model?）
段永平： 商业模式就是公司赚钱的模式。有很多公司是几乎可以看到，10年以后的日子会不好过的，这就叫生意模式。好的商业模式是有护城河的，看懂护城河对投资很重要。但护城河不是一成不变的，企业文化对建立和维护护城河，有不可或缺的作用。
Duan Yongping: A business model is how a company makes money. There are many companies where you can already foresee difficulties coming in ten years — that’s called the business model. A good business model has an economic moat. Understanding economic moats is very important for investing. However, moats aren't static; corporate culture plays an indispensable role in building and maintaining them.
# Q7: 举个例子，分众传媒算好的生意模式吗？（As an example, does Focus Media have a good business model?）
段永平： 对我没有吸引力。我曾经观察过，很多人在等电梯或坐电梯时都是低头看手机的，那谁来看广告呢？所以这个属于不在能力圈内的事情，看不懂。
Duan Yongping: It doesn't appeal to me. I once observed that many people look at their phones while waiting for or riding elevators — who would watch the ads then? So this falls outside my circle of competence; I don’t understand it.
# Q8: 什么是护城河？（What is an economic moat?）
段永平： 能长期维持的差异化是护城河。差异化指的是产品能满足用户的、别人满足不了的需求。没有差异化产品的商业模式，基本不是好的商业模式。投资要尽量避开产品很难长期做出差异化的公司，比如航空公司、太阳能组件公司。市场有时候非常疯狂，有时，投资商业模式不是那么好的公司，在一定时期内可能有不错的回报。但是，长期而言（10年、20年或以上）坚持只投好的商业模式、好的企业文化的公司，大概率上是会有比较好的回报的，而且这种投资方法让人很愉快，不需要整天瞎操心。
Duan Yongping: An economic moat is a long-term sustainable differentiation. Differentiation means the product fulfills a need that others cannot fulfill. A business model without differentiated products is basically not a good one. Investors should avoid companies whose products struggle to maintain long-term differentiation — such as airlines or solar panel manufacturers. Markets sometimes go crazy, and investing in companies with mediocre business models might yield good returns in the short term. But in the long run (10–20+ years), focusing only on companies with good business models and strong corporate cultures will likely generate solid returns — and the process itself is enjoyable, without constant worry.
# Q9: 品牌算护城河吗？你怎么看品牌溢价？（Is brand considered an economic moat? What do you think about brand premium?）
段永平： 我觉得，品牌溢价是一种误解，品牌只是物有所值而已。当一个品牌想当然认为其有溢价时，会很容易犯错误，大多数人买有品牌的东西时，肯定不是冲着“溢价”去的。消费者理性是从长期来看的，无论消费者眼前是否理性，我们都一定要认为他们是理性的。不然，你经营企业就可能会有投机行为，甚至会有不道德行为。
Duan Yongping: I think brand premium is a misunderstanding — a brand is simply worth what it costs. When a brand assumes it inherently commands a premium, mistakes are easy to make. Most people buy branded goods not because of a perceived premium. Consumers are rational in the long run. No matter how irrational they seem now, we must always assume they are rational. Otherwise, your business could engage in speculative or even unethical behavior.
# Q10: 有人说，价值投资也是很好的生意模式。（Some say value investing is also a great business model.）
段永平： 我不太同意这个说法，这和把酒、手机、搜索叫做商业模式是一个意思。价值投资是个思维方式，不是商业模式。正确的说法是：茅台酒是好的商业模式，苹果手机是好的商业模式，巴菲特的价值投资是好的商业模式，但很多假装价值投资的那些未必是。碰上一个好的商业模式，感觉是要非常好的运气，但运气背后有很厚的企业文化背景。阿里和步步高的文化，谁更好？
Duan Yongping: I don't quite agree with that statement. It's like calling wine, smartphones, or search engines business models. Value investing is a way of thinking, not a business model. The correct phrasing is: Maotai liquor represents a good business model, Apple smartphones represent a good business model, and Buffett-style value investing is also a good business model — but many who pretend to practice value investing may not actually have one. Encountering a great business model feels like good luck, but behind that luck lies a strong foundation of corporate culture.
Q11: 你为什么把企业文化看这么重？（Why do you place so much emphasis on corporate culture?）
段永平：一个企业的产品可以模仿，而文化是不可以模仿的。如果把企业比作一个木桶，企业文化就是木桶的底板，如果企业文化没做好，木桶是不能装水的。如果有深厚的企业文化底蕴，其他短板可以及时补上。
好的企业文化，能管到制度管不过来的东西。制度是强制性的，文化则不完全是，建立好的企业文化非常难，破坏起来非常容易。比如，凡是员工见到领导就战战兢兢的公司，时间长了都会出问题的。因为这种公司员工大多都会慢慢变得没有担待，凡事希望交给上级去决定，效率慢慢会降低。
Duan Yongping: A company's products can be imitated, but its culture cannot. If we compare a company to a wooden bucket, corporate culture is the base of that bucket — if the culture isn't solid, the bucket can't hold water. With strong cultural foundations, other weaknesses can be addressed and fixed over time.
Good corporate culture governs things that rules alone can't cover. Rules are mandatory, but culture isn't entirely so. Building a good culture is extremely hard, but it can be easily destroyed. For example, companies where employees are always fearful around leadership will eventually face problems. Over time, employees in such environments tend to avoid responsibility, always deferring decisions to superiors — which gradually reduces efficiency.
Q12: 你希望打造什么样的企业文化？（What kind of corporate culture do you hope to build?）
段永平：我们做企业最根本的东西，就是本分。说话要算数，是一种本分。守信誉不是给人看的，为了一个承诺去赔钱，可能很多企业家会赖帐，但我会毫不犹豫地践诺，我曾经为一个承诺赔了1800多万元。
企业不要什么钱都赚，是一种本分。企业不能不赢利，但赢利应该建立在对市场准确把握的基础上进行合法经营。
企业不是什么事都做，是一种本分。把80%的精力放在20%的事情上，那么20%的事情会带来80%的效益。有多大能力做多大的事，而不是有多大的胆量。
做企业其实非常简单，就是老老实实做事，最厉害的招数是没有招的招，一拳打出去，非常朴实。
就像跑马拉松，唯有老老实实保持匀速前进，不偷懒、不投机者才不会被淘汰。
Duan Yongping: The most fundamental thing in running a business is integrity. Keeping your word is part of being principled. Honesty shouldn't just be for show — I would never break a promise, even if it meant losing money. Once, I lost more than 18 million yuan fulfilling a commitment.
A company shouldn't chase every profit opportunity. It must be profitable, but profits should come from legal operations based on accurate market understanding.
Not everything needs to be done — that's also part of being principled. Focus 80% of your energy on the 20% of tasks that generate 80% of results. Do what fits your capabilities, not just what fits your ambition.
Running a business is actually very simple — it’s about doing things honestly and straightforwardly. The best strategies are often the simplest ones; a punch thrown with sincerity and clarity is powerful.
It’s like running a marathon — only those who run steadily, without shortcuts or speculation, won’t get eliminated.
Q13: 怎么评判一家企业的文化好或不好？（How do you judge whether a company has a good or bad corporate culture?）
段永平：我非常在乎企业管理层的人品。
我记得去上中欧上课听过一个调查，想知道非常成功的人都有什么共同特性，结果发现什么特性的人都有，但他们唯一共有的特点就是integrity（正直）。
苹果的企业文化堪称好的企业文化的经典，多看看苹果的发布会或许能有所悟。
企业文化不好最典型的特征，就是管理层经常说瞎话。我如果认为一家公司不诚信的话，我就不碰了。比如特斯拉，你只要看他以前说过多少瞎话就明白了。
再比如，我进**公司网站看了一眼。一家中国公司居然没有中文网站，好像是给投资人设计的。另外，也没找到任何有关企业文化的描述。我不太懂这个行业，看到这两点，我就不会再往下看了。
一般而言，太把“华尔街”当回事的公司我都很小心。
Duan Yongping: I care deeply about the character of a company's management team.
I once heard a survey during a CEIBS class asking what traits successful people share. It turned out they were all different — except for one common trait: integrity.
Apple's corporate culture is a classic example of a great one. Watching Apple product launches might give you some insights.
The clearest sign of poor corporate culture is when management frequently lies. If I believe a company lacks honesty, I won't invest. Take Tesla, for instance — just look at how many false claims they've made.
Another example: I visited a Chinese company’s website and noticed it didn’t even have a Chinese version — seemed like it was designed for investors. Also, there was no mention of corporate culture. Since I don’t understand this industry well, I stopped looking further.
In general, I’m cautious about companies that take Wall Street too seriously.
Q14: 巴菲特说，要找傻瓜都能经营地好的公司？（Warren Buffett said he looks for businesses even a fool could run. What do you think?）
段永平：这其实是彼得林奇说的，巴菲特引用过，老巴的意思是，如果生意模式好的话，庸才都不怕，但老巴自己是很看重管理层的。
我本人很多年前就很反对没事加班加点的。我一直认为老是强迫加班加点的部门的头的管理水平有问题，老是强迫加班加点的公司，老板的管理水平有问题，呵呵。
Duan Yongping: Actually, that quote comes from Peter Lynch, and Buffett quoted it. His point was that with a good business model, even an average person could manage the company well. But Buffett himself still values management highly.
Personally, I’ve long opposed unnecessary overtime. I believe if a department head constantly forces employees to work extra hours, it reflects poor management skills. And if a company does this regularly, the CEO likely lacks management ability. Ha!
Q15: 企业文化很容易流于形式，怎么才能把它真正印到企业员工的骨髓里？（Corporate culture can easily become superficial. How do you truly instill it into employees' DNA?）
段永平：这是一项艰难的工作，它非常重要，但往往不那么紧迫，常常被人忽略。有好的企业文化的公司，往往应变能力要强很多。
企业文化要不停的宣讲，才能慢慢深入到大家的骨髓里，现在好像马云出来的机会已经少多了。
Duan Yongping: This is a difficult task — important, but rarely urgent, so it’s often overlooked. Companies with strong cultures usually adapt better to change.
Culture needs constant communication and reinforcement before it becomes embedded in people’s minds. These days, Jack Ma doesn’t appear as often to promote Alibaba’s culture.
Q16: 管理层强行洗脑的植入，是否会让员工不能独立思考或不敢表达不同意见？（Can enforced cultural indoctrination prevent employees from thinking independently or expressing dissenting opinions?）
段永平：我在公司里是个反对派，几乎做什么我都会提反对意见。如果连我的反对意见大家都不怕时，做什么我都会放心一些。
我最怕的就是，当老板说什么，大家都说“好”，那时公司就危险了。
当然，前提是，我认为我们同事很多都在许多方面比我强。如果认为自己是公司里最聪明的人的“老板”，是很难认同我这个观点的。
Duan Yongping: In my company, I often play the role of a dissenter — I raise objections almost every time. If even my critical views are welcomed, then I feel more confident in our decisions.
What worries me most is when everyone agrees with the boss — that’s when the company is in danger.
Of course, this only works if you genuinely believe your colleagues are smarter than you in many ways. If a CEO believes they’re the smartest person in the room, they’ll never accept this idea.
Q17: 企业怎么把好的文化传承下去？（How can a company pass down a good corporate culture?）
段永平：首先是找到同道中人。然后就是年年讲，月月讲，天天讲，靠年头淘汰掉不合适的。
企业招人分合格的人和合适的人，合适是指文化匹配，合格是指能力。
价值观不match（匹配）的人，坚决不要。因为你没有办法说服不相信你的人的，给公司制造麻烦的，往往是合格但不合适的人。
Duan Yongping: First, find like-minded people. Then keep repeating the message — year after year, month after month, day after day — and let time weed out those who don’t fit.
When hiring, distinguish between competent people and compatible people. Competent means skilled; compatible means aligned with company values.
Never hire someone whose values don’t match. People who are capable but misaligned with culture are often the ones who create problems.
Q18: 阿里和步步高的文化，谁更好？（Which company has a better culture: Alibaba or BBK/Vivo/Oppo?）
段永平：阿里文化不如步步高文化的地方是，阿里要成为最大，步步高要本分。
其实是不是第一没有那么重要，因为消费者在买东西时，一般并不在乎谁是第一，他们在乎的是买的东西是什么（消费者导向）。
还有很多企业喜欢说要成为百年老店，但百年老店不意味着就一定活到101年，这就像不能用pe去预测明年的利润一样。
雷曼好像就有150多年的历史。但你只要注意到雷曼后期的企业文化都变成什么样了的话，你就不会对 their 结局感到惊奇。
Duan Yongping: Where Alibaba falls short compared to BBK’s culture is their pursuit of becoming “the biggest.” BBK focuses on integrity — doing the right thing.
Being number one isn’t that important. Consumers don’t care who’s first — they care about the quality of what they buy (consumer-oriented approach).
Many companies claim they want to become “century-old brands,” but lasting 100 years doesn’t mean they’ll survive another year. It’s like using PE ratios to predict next year’s profits.
Lehman Brothers had over 150 years of history. But if you look at their culture in the final years, their collapse makes perfect sense.
Q19: 投资圈经常说，价值观致胜。你怎么看？（Some say success in investing comes from values. What’s your view?）
段永平：可以这么说。但偶尔会看到，有些价值观有些问题的公司，会因为某些对路的产品厉害一段时间，你也会看到，有很好的价值观的公司出现战略错误，而招致灭顶之灾。
投资难就难在，没有任何公式可循，没有充分的条件可以确定可买的公司。
但怎么选对的公司是能力问题，不选错的公司是是非问题。
我记得当年我们买万科时就有人问过我，说万一万科假账怎么办。我说，以我认识的王石而言，他绝不是会关在房间里和财务商量个假账来蒙股东的人。其实那时和王石不熟，现在也不算熟，就是直觉而已。
Duan Yongping: That’s partly true. Sometimes companies with questionable values can succeed temporarily due to a hit product. Conversely, companies with strong values may still fail due to strategic mistakes.
Investing is hard because there’s no formula, no guaranteed way to identify winning companies.
Choosing good companies is a matter of skill; avoiding bad ones is a matter of principle.
When we bought Vanke years ago, someone asked, “What if they cook the books?” I replied, “From what I know of Wang Shi, he wouldn’t sit in a room conspiring with accountants to cheat shareholders.” At the time, I didn’t know him well — now I still don’t — but it was a gut feeling.
Q20: 在你看来，做投资最重要的是什么？（What do you think is most important in investing?）
段永平：最重要的就是，要弄明白所投股票的价值所在。如果不清楚这只股票的价值是多少，你就不能碰。
看懂生意比较难，看不懂的拿住比较难。大部分人拿不住，是因为看不懂。如果你不知道自己买的是什么的话，跟“高手”是跟不住的。
我自己能看懂的公司也是非常少的，看不懂只能放弃了。我和很多人的差别在于，我承认我懂的少，所以就变简单了。
老巴成功的秘诀是他知道自己买的是什么。无论你看懂的是长久还是变化，只要是真懂，便宜时就是好机会。
最重要的是投在你真正懂的东西上，投在你真正认为会赚钱的公司。我对赚钱的定义是：回报比长期无风险债券高。
Duan Yongping: The most important thing is to understand the value of the stock you’re investing in. If you can’t determine its value, you shouldn’t touch it.
Understanding a business is hard — holding onto one you don’t understand is even harder. Most people can’t hold because they don’t understand. If you don’t know what you’re buying, you can’t follow the “experts.”
The number of companies I truly understand is very small. If I don’t understand it, I simply walk away. My difference from others is that I admit my ignorance, which simplifies things.
Buffett’s secret to success is knowing exactly what he’s buying. Whether you understand the long-term or the changes, as long as you truly understand it, a low price is a great opportunity.
Invest only in what you truly understand — in companies you truly believe will generate profits. My definition of profit is a return higher than long-term risk-free bonds.
Q21: 什么是真的看懂？（What does it mean to "truly understand"?）
段永平：很简单，当你还有疑惑时，就表示你还不懂或者懂得不够。
看懂的公司大概就是，怎么涨你都不想卖、大掉时你会全力再买进。
没看懂的公司就是，股价一掉你就想卖，涨一点点你也想卖的那种。买了怕价格掉下来的投资，最好离的远远的。如果你买啥都怕掉下来，就远离股市。
Duan Yongping: It’s simple: if you still have doubts, you either don’t understand it or understand it insufficiently.
When you truly understand a company, you won’t want to sell even if the price rises sharply — and you’ll buy more aggressively when it drops.
If you don’t understand a company, you’ll panic-sell at the first drop or sell at minor gains. If you fear losses, stay far away from stocks. If everything you buy scares you, stay out of the market.
Q22: 金融衍生品用好了也能赚钱，巴菲特也会用，但衍生品赚的并非企业成长的钱，你怎么看？（Derivatives can be profitable when used well. Buffett uses them too. But they don’t profit from business growth. Your thoughts?）
段永平：巴菲特反对的，和他做的衍生品是完全不同的东西。我自己用很多金融衍生品，和巴菲特的用法一样，所以比较理解他说得是什么。
很多人用衍生品就好像去赌场当赌客，希望能够快点赚钱。但巴菲特用衍生品就好像在澳门开赌场，长期而言是稳赚的。
不是每个人开赌场都能赚钱，但会开的人就行。也许赌场的例子不一定合适，但道理确实一样。
Duan Yongping: What Buffett opposes and what he actually does with derivatives are entirely different. I use many financial derivatives myself, just like Buffett, so I understand his perspective.
Many use derivatives like gamblers in a casino — hoping to get rich quickly. Buffett, however, uses them like a casino owner in Macau — profiting steadily over the long term.
Not everyone who opens a casino makes money, but those who know how to run one do. The casino analogy might not be perfect, but the principle holds.
Q23: 投资中最简单的事是什么？（What is the simplest thing in investing?）
段永平：我想来想去，总觉得只有一样东西最简单，就是当你买一个股票时，你一定是认为你在买这家公司，你可能拿在手里10年，20年。有这种想法后，就容易判断很多。
看三年五年是比看十年难的，基本上可以说，看得越短越难。
Duan Yongping: After much thought, I believe the simplest thing is this: when you buy a stock, you must believe you’re buying the company itself — and you’d be willing to hold it for 10 or 20 years. Once you adopt this mindset, many decisions become easier.
Looking at 3–5 years is harder than looking at 10 years. Generally speaking, the shorter your time horizon, the harder it becomes.
Q24: 能举个例子吗？（Can you give an example?）
段永平：比如，我在2011年买苹果的时候，苹果大概3000亿市值（当时股价310/7=44），手里有1000亿净现金，那时候利润大概不到200亿。
以我对苹果的理解，我认为，苹果未来5年左右赢利大概率会涨很多，我就猜个500亿（去年595亿）。当时想的东西非常简单，用2000亿左右市值买个目前赚接近200亿/年，未来5左右会赚到500亿/年或以上的公司，而且还会往后继续很好。
如果有这个结论，买苹果不过是个简单算术题，你只要根据自己的机会成本就可以决定了。但得到这个结论非常不容易，对我来说至少20年功夫，能得到这个结论，就叫懂了。
不懂则千万千万别碰。我有个球友320/7=46买了一些，结果一个回调，310/7就卖了（现在苹果加上分红可能早就超过200了），还跟我讲为什么要卖的道理，从此我不再跟他说投资了。
Duan Yongping: For example, when I bought Apple in 2011, it had a $300B market cap (stock price: ~$44 at the time), $100B in net cash, and profits below $20B.
Based on my understanding, I believed Apple’s profits would grow significantly in the next 5 years — I guessed $50B (they reached $59.5B last year). The logic was simple: buying a company earning ~$20B/year now, likely to earn $50B+/year in 5 years, and continuing strong afterward.
If you reach this conclusion, buying Apple is just arithmetic — decide based on your opportunity cost. But reaching this conclusion took me at least 20 years. That’s what “understanding” means.
If you don’t understand, don’t touch it. A golf buddy bought at ~$46/share, sold at ~$31/share after a dip (Apple with dividends is worth over $200+ now), and tried to explain his reasoning. I stopped discussing investing with him after that.
Q25: 很多投资人认为，看三年、五年容易，看十年很难？（Many investors believe looking at 3–5 years is easier than 10 years. Your thoughts?）
段永平：如果你觉得看十年比看三年难，那一定会觉得看三年会比看三天难。看三天更容易？很多人都是三天、两天、一天那么看的，结果显然是不好的吧？
我们在2012年、2013年买茅台的时候，是不知道两三年内茅台会怎么样的，但我可以大概率肯定，茅台10年后会不错。现在其实还不到十年呢，效果就已经不错了。其实用老巴那句话来解释就容易理解些了：知道什么会发生，比知道什么时候会发生要容易的多。
很多事情，不管是好事还是坏事，给他10年，大概率就会发生了，三年则未必；但三年会发生的概率显然会比三天高。所以，能看三年也好，肯定是好过看三天的。
Duan Yongping: If you think 10 years is harder than 3, you’d also think 3 years is harder than 3 days. Is 3 days easier? Many investors think in days and end up with poor results.
When we bought Moutai in 2012–2013, we didn’t know its 2–3 year outlook. But I was confident it would thrive in 10 years. Even before 10 years, results are already strong. Buffett’s quote helps: knowing what will happen is easier than knowing when.
Many events — good or bad — become probable over 10 years, but not necessarily in 3. However, 3-year outcomes are more likely than 3-day ones. So, looking at 3 years is better than 3 days.
Q26: 这是否跟能力圈也有关系？（Is this related to the "circle of competence"?）
段永平：知道自己能力圈的边界在哪里，要远远重要过能力圈有多大。
不明白这一点，是很多“聪明人”投资表现长期不好的原因。但这些“聪明人”会把别人的成功或不成功，归结于运气或“accidents”（意外），而且他们总是能够很“聪明”地找到办法，让自己认为确实如此。
功夫熊猫里说”there are no accidents”（从来没有意外），是蛮有道理的。
Duan Yongping: Knowing the boundaries of your circle of competence is far more important than its size.
Many “smart” investors perform poorly long-term because they misunderstand this. They attribute others’ success or failure to luck or “accidents,” cleverly convincing themselves it’s true.
As Kung Fu Panda says, “There are no accidents.” That makes sense.
Q27: 你的能力圈边界是什么？这些年在有哪些拓展？（What defines your circle of competence, and how has it evolved?）
段永平：能力圈不是拿金箍棒在地上画个圈，说待在里面不要出去，外面有妖怪。
能力圈是：诚实对自己，知之为知之，不知为不知。有这样的态度，如果能看懂一个东西，那它就是在我能力圈内，否则就不是。很多人错在选了自己不了解、别人说回报高的，结果是85%的人亏钱。
如果问这85%的“投资者”：每年收益选择8%还是10%、20%？这有点像某记者问人“你幸福吗？”
在自己真正理解的生意里，没道理选回报低的，但前提是真正理解！而每个人都能理解的生意，就是把钱存银行。
所以，投资只有很少人能理解，大多数人还是别碰为好。
不懂不做。我始终没完全搞懂银行的业务的风险到底在哪儿。美国的一些大银行隔个10年8年就来一次大动荡，还没明白是怎么回事。
索罗斯的东西不好学，至少像我这样的一般人很难学会。老巴的东西好学，懂的马上就懂了。
Duan Yongping: Your circle of competence isn’t a magic circle drawn with a golden staff — keeping you safe while the outside world is dangerous.
It’s about honesty: know what you know and admit what you don’t. With this attitude, if you understand something, it’s in your circle; otherwise, it’s not. Many make the mistake of chasing high-returns in areas they don’t understand — 85% end up losing money.
Ask those 85% of “investors”: would you choose 8%, 10%, or 20% annual returns? It’s like a reporter asking, “Are you happy?”
Within truly understood businesses, there’s no reason to settle for low returns — but only if you genuinely understand! The only universally understandable business is saving money in a bank.
Thus, only a few understand investing. Most should avoid it.
Don’t invest in what you don’t understand. I still don’t fully grasp the risks in banking. U.S. banks face major turmoil every 10–8 years — I haven’t figured it out yet.
Soros’s methods are hard to learn — especially for ordinary people like me. Buffett’s ideas are easy: once you understand, you understand instantly.
# Q28: 你怎么评价索罗斯？（What’s your opinion on George Soros?）
段永平： 我对索罗斯没兴趣，谈不上评论。我对我不擅长的东西都没兴趣，就像很多人对我没兴趣一样。要做到对自己不擅长的东西没兴趣，不是一件容易的事情，因为人们总是以为自己比实际上要聪明一些。
Duan Yongping: I’m not interested in Soros and have no comment on him. I’m not interested in things I don’t understand — just like many people aren’t interested in me. It’s not easy to truly ignore what you’re not good at, because people always think they’re smarter than they actually are.
# Q29: 很多人也会说，看不懂就去学习？（Many say, “If you don’t understand, go learn.” Your thoughts?）
段永平： 投资简单但不容易！看懂一家公司，不会比读一个本科更容易。花很多时间去看那些看不懂的公司，是不合算的。
Duan Yongping: Investing is simple but not easy! Understanding a company isn’t easier than getting a bachelor’s degree. Spending time on companies you don’t understand is inefficient.
# Q30: 有没有比较节省时间的方式？（Is there a time-efficient way?）
段永平： 我在老巴那里学到的非常重要的一点就是：先看商业模式，除非你喜欢这家公司的商业模式，不然就不再往下看了，这样能省很多时间。老巴也讲过，伟大的生意一般只要一个paragraph，就可以说得很清楚。
Duan Yongping: One key lesson from Buffett is: first look at the business model. If you don’t like it, stop reading — this saves tons of time. Buffett also said a great business can be explained clearly in one paragraph.
# Q31: 你看财务报表吗？（Do you read financial statements?）
段永平： 我投资是不太看财报的，至少不读得那么细，我会找专业的人看，告诉我答案就ok了。搞懂一家好公司是非常不容易的，多数情况下，不是简单看下报表就可以的。只看财报只会看到一个公司的历史，但做投资不能只看一个公司的历史。巴菲特曾经向股东推荐了几本书，有一本书是《杰克·韦尔奇自传》，书中的韦尔奇对企业文化是很在意的，你可以想象，巴菲特对此也很在乎，他不是像有的人说的只看财报。对我而言，是不是好公司，在看年报以前就应该知道了。我一般会先了解企业文化，如果觉得不信任这家公司，就连报表都不会看的。但在了解以前会看，至少是应该看。一般来说，对于了解的公司，你不太可能不知道他们是不是有意做假。不了解的公司不要碰，如果你连业务的作假都看不到，那财报做假就更难看到了。当然，我的懒人办法未必适合于别人。
Duan Yongping: I rarely read financial reports in detail — I ask professionals to summarize them for me. Truly understanding a great company is hard; reading reports alone is usually insufficient. Financials show history, but investing isn’t about history. Buffett once recommended Jack Welch’s autobiography — Welch cared deeply about corporate culture, so Buffett must too. He doesn’t just look at numbers. For me, I should already know if a company is good before checking its annual report. I start with corporate culture; if I distrust a company, I won’t even read its reports. But before understanding a company, I do check — at least initially. For companies you understand, fraud is usually obvious. For those you don’t, avoid them — if you can’t spot business-level fraud, financial fraud will be even harder. My lazy approach might not suit others.
# Q32: 你可以懒，是因为自己也做实业，可以选择自己熟悉的行业投资？（You can be “lazy” because you run businesses — does that let you focus on familiar industries?）
段永平： 我不关注行业，我只投我能看得懂的企业。我熟悉的行业有时反而不投，比如电子业，竞争太激烈了。我很多成功的投资，好像行业根本不搭界，但对我来说是相关的，因为我能够搞懂它，知道管理层是否在胡说八道，企业是否有好的机制，竞争对手是否比他强很多，三五年内他会胜出对手的地方在哪里……无非就是这些东西。看懂了，你就投。
Duan Yongping: I don’t focus on industries — I only invest in businesses I understand. Sometimes I avoid even familiar industries, like electronics, which are too competitive. Many of my successful investments span unrelated sectors, but they’re connected because I understand them: whether management is truthful, if the business has good mechanisms, if competitors are far stronger, and how it’ll outperform in 3–5 years… That’s all. Once you get it, invest.
# Q33: 医药股被认为是最有钱途的行业，像新基制药、百济神州、信达生物等创新药企业，你关注过吗？（Pharma stocks like Celgene, BeiGene, or Innovent are seen as lucrative. Have you considered them?）
段永平： 我从来没接触过制药行业，也不打算再花时间去搞懂了。我懂的东西虽然不多，但小日子应该能过了，有时间要干些自己喜欢的事情。“投资的概念就是可以下重手”。
Duan Yongping: I’ve never touched the pharmaceutical industry and won’t spend time learning it now. What I understand is enough for a comfortable life. Time is better spent on what I enjoy. The concept of investing is being able to bet big.
# Q34: 普通投资者做投资，你有什么建议？（What advice for ordinary investors?）
段永平： 关键在不懂就是不碰的原则。多数人错在一知半解时，由于害怕失去机会而急急忙忙出手了。记得很久以前在学校碰到一个老师问，说自己不懂投资，但需要管理自己的小小财富怎么办，我说你就都交给巴菲特吧，全部买上巴菲特的股票，怎么着都会比自己管好的，还不用操心。小股东做大投资确实要慎重，但一旦找到好的东西，不要轻易放掉。我看到很多小股民来回换股票，10年之后，他自己没有赚钱，别人都赚钱了。最终90%以上的投资者，投在股市上的钱都比放在银行拿利息要少。股票不要道听途说，一定要少换，如果两家都是好公司，要不要换，取决于你自己更了解哪家，而不是别人觉得哪家。
Duan Yongping: The key is the “don’t touch what you don’t understand” principle. Most mistakes come from acting on partial knowledge out of fear of missing opportunities. A teacher once asked, “I don’t understand investing but need to manage my small savings.” I said, “Buy Buffett’s stocks — it’ll beat self-management without stress.” Small investors must be cautious with big bets, but once you find something good, hold it. Many small investors trade endlessly for 10 years, end up losing, while others profit. Over 90% of investors underperform bank interest rates. Don’t chase rumors — trade less. If both companies are good, switch only if you understand one better, not based on others’ opinions.
# Q35: 你认为，投资和投机的区别是什么？（What’s the difference between investing and speculation?）
段永平： 投机投的是零和游戏，投资投的是企业带来的利润。我有个最简单的衡量办法，就是以现在的价格，这家公司如果不是上市公司，你还买不买？如果决定买，这就叫投资；你说只要后面有人买我的股票，你就会买，不是上市公司你就不买了，这就叫投机。
Duan Yongping: Speculation is zero-sum; investing focuses on profits from businesses. My simplest test: At current prices, would you still buy this company if it weren’t public? If yes, it’s investing. If you buy only because others might take your shares, it’s speculation.
# Q36: 但有些人认为，上市能带来资金和发展空间，也能够带来价值。（Some argue listing brings capital and growth, thus value.）
段永平： 有些公司是，有些公司不是，中国大部分公司都不是，上市未必能带来更好的发展。
Duan Yongping: Some companies benefit from listing, but most in China don’t. Listing doesn’t guarantee better development.
# Q37: 这是思维方式上的区别，行为上怎么区别投资和投机？（How do investing and speculation differ in practice?）
段永平： 其一，你是在动用大笔钱还是小笔钱。在我看来，投机有点像在赌场玩，不能下重注，也不可能赢大钱。投资的概念就是可以下重手，没有很高的把握，比如90%左右，就不应该出手。其二，当股价下跌时，投机和投资的态度正好相反。投资者看到股价下跌，往往很开心，因为有机会买到更便宜的东西，而投机者想的是，公司肯定是出什么事情了，赶紧走人。投资和投机是很不同的游戏，看起来又非常像。就像在澳门，开赌场的是投资者，赌客是投机者。赌场总有源源不断的客源，是因为总有赌客能赢钱，而赌客总是赢钱的比较大声些。作为娱乐，赌点小钱无可非议，但赌身家就不对了。可我真是能见到好多在股场上赌身家的人。
Duan Yongping: First, the scale of capital matters. Speculation is like gambling — no big bets, no big wins. Investing means betting big when you have 90% confidence. Second, reactions to falling prices differ: Investors see bargains; speculators panic and flee. Investing and speculation seem similar but are fundamentally different. In Macau, casino owners (investors) profit steadily, while gamblers (speculators) occasionally win and loudly celebrate. Gambling with small money is fine, but risking your life savings is reckless — yet I see many doing it.
# Q38: 你投机过吗？（Have you ever speculated?）
段永平： 有，但只是玩玩而已，just for fun。我也经常做短线，我的乐趣有时候从短线来。我有两个帐号，一个是长线帐号，一个是短线帐号。短线就是好玩，赚不赚钱呢？也赚，但是这里面有什么心得吗？没有。对于短线帐号，我每年家庭开销从里面出，交税也从这里面交，但是钱没有少过，总有这么多钱。对于长线帐号，我有时候都不知道它赚钱了，最长线的是我买了之后就没动过，持有5年下来大概赚了50多倍，而我短线5年下来也可能有2倍，你说哪个好？我也不知道。巴菲特也做短线，他跟我的目的是一样：好玩。当然他是自己做，他的投资公司是不做的。人家跟我讨论股票，我都要跟人说清楚，是讨论投机还是投资？是for fun还是for money？如果for fun，没什么可讨论的，买你喜欢的就好了，反正你也不会把房子卖了，扛着钱去拉斯维加斯。我曾经在邮轮上用两百块钱玩了三个晚上，赚了两千块钱。如果你作为投资的故事来讲，三天翻了十倍，这叫什么故事！但你敢拿几百万这么赌吗？不敢。所以，投资是另外的讲法。
Duan Yongping: Yes, but only for fun. I have two accounts: long-term and short-term. Short-term is entertainment — it funds my taxes and expenses, and the balance never shrinks. Long-term? I sometimes forget I own it. One position grew 50x in 5 years; short-term might return 2x. Which is better? I don’t know. Buffett does short-term too — for fun, not his fund. When discussing stocks, I clarify: Are we talking speculation or investing? For fun or money? If for fun, just buy what you like — you won’t sell your house to gamble. I once turned $200 into $2000 in 3 days on a cruise. As an investment story, 10x in 3 days sounds wild — but would you risk millions? No. That’s speculation.
# Q39: 你被认为是中国版的巴菲特。（You’re seen as the Chinese Warren Buffett.）
段永平： 我从一开始就是个价值投资者。我买股票时总是假设，如果有足够多的钱，我是否会把整个公司买下来。股市中大家在玩不同的游戏，但投资这个游戏其实只有一个玩法，就是“价值投资”。投机则有不同的玩法，到赌场有很多玩法，可以玩“大小”等等，这个钱来得当然快，但是去得也快。真正的价值投资者，是骨子里相信价值的。一个人是不是价值投资者，在于其关心公司本身的程度。
Duan Yongping: I’ve always been a value investor. When buying stocks, I assume: Would I buy the entire company if I had enough money? Everyone plays different games in the market, but investing has only one rule: value investing. Speculation has many rules, like “big/small” bets — profits come fast and leave faster. True value investors inherently believe in value. Whether someone is a value investor depends on how much they care about the business itself.
# Q40: 什么样的人是价值投资者？（What defines a value investor?）
段永平： 价值投资者买股票时总是假设，如果有足够多的钱，我是否会把整个公司买下来。价值投资者追求的是价值，与其是否热门无关，所有真正好公司，都有热门的那一天。最关键是，平常心去看一家公司到底价值何在，不要理会市场的冷热。有些不碰股票的人，也可以是最好的价值投资者，因为他们懂价值投资最精髓的东西——不懂不碰，而且长期而言，他们的投资回报比股市上85%的人都好，因为他们没在股票上赔钱。有至少85%的人是不适合投资的，突然发现自己不适合，也不是什么不好意思的事情，只要现在“回头是岸”，你的“不投资”表现至少可以比85%的人好。学习巴菲特最好的办法，其实就是远离股市。巴菲特的东西每一个人都可以学，但我发现，只有很少人会去真正认真地学，所以能学会的人很少。
Duan Yongping: A value investor asks: Would I buy the entire company if I had enough money? Value investors seek value, not trends. All great companies eventually become popular. The key is to stay calm and ignore market sentiment. Some non-investors are the best value investors — they follow the “don’t invest in what you don’t understand” rule. Long-term, they outperform 85% of investors by simply not losing money. At least 85% shouldn’t invest — realizing that early isn’t shameful. The best way to learn Buffett is to stay away from the stock market. Everyone can learn his principles, but few bother to study seriously — that’s why few master them.
# Q41: 你怎么看国内公募基金的价值投资？（What’s your view on Chinese mutual funds’ value investing?）
段永平： 大多数基金都很难真正做到价值投资，主要是因为基金往往是用年来衡量考核，投资者也往往是根据其上一年的业绩来决定是否投进去。我们经常看到的现象是，往往在最应该买股票的时候，很多基金却会在市场上狂卖，因为持有人很恐慌，要赎回。而往往股价很高时，却有很多基金在狂买，因为这个时候往往有很多投资者愿意投钱进来。另外，基金是收管理费的，有钱时总想干点啥，不然投资者可能会有意见。
Duan Yongping: Most funds struggle with value investing because they’re judged annually, and investors chase last year’s performance. Funds often panic-sell at buying opportunities due to redemptions, and overbuy high-priced stocks when inflows surge. Funds charge fees — they must “do something” to justify their existence.
# Q42: 你怎么看趋势投资者？（What’s your view on trend followers?）
段永平： 我见过做趋势很厉害的人，做了几十年，但依然还是“小资金”。用芒格的“逆向思维”想一下，你也许就对“趋势”没那么感兴趣了。投机比投资难学多了，但投机刺激，好玩，所以大多数人还是喜欢投机。事实上，投机就是认为自己可以比市场快一步。如果一个投机分子认为市场比自己聪明的话，从一开始他就不会介入，小玩玩的不算哈。但最后大部分人确实证明了，市场确实更聪明。从长期角度看，市场是绝顶聪明的！
Duan Yongping: I’ve met top trend-followers with decades of experience — but they’re still “small players.” Use Munger’s reverse thinking — you’ll lose interest in trends. Speculation is harder to learn than investing, but it’s exciting, so most prefer it. Speculation assumes you’re faster than the market. If you believe the market is smarter, you’d never speculate. Most prove the market is smarter. Long-term, the market is incredibly smart.
# Q43: 每个人都有一颗投机的心？（Does everyone have a speculative instinct?）
段永平： 是的，所以才需要信仰，信仰指的是要“做对的事情”。而“做对的事情”，就是明知错的事情就不做。巴菲特之所以如此厉害，最重要的一点就是，他能坚持不做他认为不对的事情。坚持非常不容易，因为往往“不对的事情”是有短期诱惑的。我总是努力去提醒人们不要做什么，但多数人最后总是会回到问我，“那我该干嘛？”大概只有很少的人看明白了，我们干过啥，对你能干啥不会有太多帮助的。
Duan Yongping: Yes, which is why you need principles — “do the right thing” means avoiding clear mistakes. Buffett’s genius lies in refusing to do what he sees as wrong, no matter the short-term temptation. I focus on what not to do, but most ask, “Then what should I do?” Few realize our past actions may not guide yours.
# Q44: 什么是对的事情？（What’s “the right thing”?）
段永平： 对的事情往往和能长久有关系，投资上尤其如此。做对的事情，实际上是通过不做不对的事情来实现的，因此要有stop doing list，一旦发现是不正确的事情，要马上停止，不管多大的代价，往往都会是最小的代价。比如，发现买错了股票或公司，应该赶紧离开，不然，越到后面，损失会越大，但大部分人往往会希望等到回本再说。大概五六年前，我们公司让我负责一笔人民币闲钱的投资，我们买的时候可能了解不够，没能完全看明白，后来觉得是买错了，亏了点小钱卖掉了，全部换成了茅台。如果当时不及时改正错误，可能到今天还亏着钱呢。亏钱卖股票不容易，但如果懂沉入成本以及机会成本的概念，就会容易很多。不过，所谓不对的事情，并不总是很容易判断。有些事情相对容易判别，比如不骗人。有些不那么容易，比如是不是该早睡早起。其实每个人都多少知道自己能做什么，但往往不知道自己不该做什么。如果每个人把自己干过的不应该干的事情不干的话，结果差异会大大超出一般人的想象。可以看看芒格讲的如何赚20000亿美金的例子。传说大概70年代的时候，芒格曾经因为用margin（保证金），两年内亏掉大部分身价，所以有了只需要富一次的说法。芒格大概算富过一次半的人。
Duan Yongping: The right things align with long-term sustainability, especially in investing. Doing right means avoiding wrongs — maintain a “stop doing list.” Stop immediately when you spot a mistake, no matter the cost (it’s the smallest). For example, we sold a bad investment at a small loss and switched to Moutai — if we’d waited, we’d still be losing money. Selling at a loss feels hard, but sunk costs and opportunity costs make it easier. Wrong actions vary in clarity — lying is obvious; waking up early is debatable. Most know what they can do but not what they shouldn’t. Avoiding bad decisions creates massive long-term differences. Charlie Munger once lost most of his wealth using margin in the 1970s — hence the saying, “Be rich once.” Munger made it half that way.
# Q45: 怎么判断不对的事情？（How to identify wrong actions?）
段永平： 要有时间想。很多人一天到晚忙，根本没时间想，可能永远都不会明白。不对的事情都是通过长期思考以及自己和他人的经验教训得来的，每个人或公司都应该要积累自己的stop doing list。不做的事情有些是在过程中发现的，比如给人加工；有些是本分带来的，比如不能不诚信。不做的事情让我们减少犯错的机会，日积月累效果很好。如果能尽量不做不对的事情，同时又努力地把事情做对，10年、20年后的区别是巨大的。我要强调的是，在把事情做对的过程中，一定会犯很多错误的。在做对的事情过程中所犯的错误，和因为做错的事情而带来的结果要严格区分开来。当确定你做的是一件对的事情，正确的事情就要坚持，比如买了个好公司。至于怎么把事情做对，要花时间去培养skill sets（就是有学习曲线的意思，要允许犯错误）。坚持“Stop Doing List”厉害是攒出来的。
Duan Yongping: You need time to reflect. Many are too busy to think, staying ignorant forever. Wrong actions are learned through years of reflection and others’ mistakes. Everyone should build their “stop doing list.” Some wrongs are discovered during execution (e.g., contract manufacturing); others stem from principles (e.g., honesty). Avoiding bad decisions compounds benefits over time. Focus on minimizing wrongs while striving to do right — the 10–20 year difference is huge. Mistakes in doing right things differ from those in wrong actions — distinguish them strictly. Once you confirm a right action (e.g., buying a great company), stick to it. Skill development requires time and tolerance for errors. Mastery of “stop doing” comes from accumulation.
# Q46: 一件事是在做对的事情中间犯的错，还是事情本身就是错的，该怎么判断？（How to tell a mistake in right actions vs. a wrong action?）
段永平： 做对一件事情还要看你的能力，但能力可以通过学习来提高。另外，无论是做实业还是做投资，成功的基本法则是做事情不求快，想想刘翔你就知道，光是快也是不靠谱的，关键是找到对的事情，把它坚持下去。发现错，马上就改。慢慢来很重要，据说，在任何方面花够一万个小时后，大多数人都能成为专家。其实，如果我们两年找到一个好股票，就非常非常好了。
Duan Yongping: Doing right things depends on ability, which improves with learning. Success in business or investing requires patience — don’t rush. Liu Xiang’s career shows speed alone is unreliable. Focus on finding right things and persist. Fix mistakes immediately. Slow progress matters — 10,000 hours in any field makes experts. Finding one good stock every two years is already great.
# Q47: 怎么理解“Stop Doing List”？（How to understand “Stop Doing List”?）
段永平： 它不是一个skill（技巧）或者formula（公式），而是思维方式：如果发现错了，就立刻停止，因为这个时候成本是最小的。错了一定要停，要抵抗住短期诱惑。这和它对你有多重要以及你曾经花过多少心血无关，也和你能不能找到更好的事情无关。技巧的东西谁都可以学，但我们之所以成为我们，除了我们一直努力做的事情外，我们不做某些事情的决定也同样重要。坚持“Stop Doing List”，厉害是攒出来的，没有shortcut（捷径），要靠自己去积累，去体悟。
Duan Yongping: It’s not a skill or formula — it’s a mindset: stop immediately when wrong, as costs are smallest then. Resist short-term temptation, regardless of prior effort or alternatives. Skills can be copied, but what defines us is both what we do and what we refuse to do. Mastery of “Stop Doing” takes time, not shortcuts. It’s built through personal experience and reflection.
# Q48: 你的厉害是怎么攒出来的？（How did you build your skills?）
段永平： 记得有次和台湾做代工的一个大佬吃饭聊天，他问，为什么你们这么厉害。我说，因为我们有个“stop doing list”，他也问到“举个例子”，我说：比如我们不做代工，因为如果我们做代工，很难和你们竞争。我想的都不是眼前的，我一直想的是长远的事情。比如，我是学无线电的，当年研究生毕业时，找的工作说，多少年能当处长，两年能分房子，鸡鸭鱼肉有得分，但我没兴趣，所以离开了。很多人说“我没有找到更好的机会”，其实是他们没有停止做不对的事的勇气。发现错了就要马上停，不然两年后，可能还是待在那个不好的地方。很多人都在眼前的利益上打转，30年后还会在那儿打转。
Duan Yongping: A Taiwanese OEM boss once asked why we’re so skilled. I said, “We have a ‘stop doing list.’” For example, we avoid OEM work — can’t compete with you. I think long-term. I left a job offering promotions and housing after graduation — wasn’t interested. Many say, “I couldn’t find better opportunities,” but they lack the courage to stop wrong actions. If you delay fixing mistakes, you’ll still be stuck in 2 years. Most chase short-term gains and stay trapped for 30.
# Q49: 在你的stop doing list上，有多少条内容？（How many items are in your “Stop Doing List”?）
段永平： 我没有真的统计过，但似乎不是几十条那么多。列入这个清单的东西一定要尽量少，不然可能会束缚大家的手脚。买一只股票往往要很多理由，不买往往就一两个理由就够了。我要强调的是，错的事情一定要马上停，但对的事情不一定都要做，做对的事情也需要聚焦。另外，做对的事情也是会犯错的，那叫水平问题，需要学习和磨练，有时候还需要天赋，比如弹钢琴或打高尔夫球。不做空，不借钱，不做不懂的东西！
Duan Yongping: I haven’t counted, but it’s not dozens. Keep it short — too many rules stifle flexibility. Buying needs many reasons; selling often takes just one. Stop wrong actions immediately, but not all right actions must be done — focus is key. Even right actions involve mistakes — skill and practice matter, sometimes talent (like piano or golf). No shorting, no leverage, no investing in what you don’t understand!
# Q50: 你的投资stop doing list，有什么事是一定不能做的？（What’s on your investment “Stop Doing List”?）
段永平： 我一般不投资任何非上市公司，除非是我认识10年以上的，并且非常了解或信任的人做的公司。我对刚刚IPO的公司也不感兴趣，主要是没足够时间和资料去搞懂。我绝对不会去做固定收益的东西。固定收益的东西长期肯定是输给通胀的，所以长期来说是件错的事情。另外，老巴的教导千万别忘了：不做空，不借钱，不做不懂的东西！做空有无限风险，一次错误就可能致命。投资不需要勇气，当你需要勇气时你就危险了。借钱是危险的，没人知道市场到底有多疯狂。我记得巴菲特说过类似的话：如果你不了解投资，不应该借钱。如果你了解投资，不需要借钱，反正你早晚都会有钱的。而且，长期而言，做空是肯定不对的，因为大市一定是向上的。价值投资者是会犯错误的。做空犯错的机会可能只有一次，只要你做空，总会有一次犯错的，何苦呢？
Duan Yongping: I avoid pre-IPO companies unless I’ve known the founders for 10+ years. New IPOs lack time and data. Fixed income loses to inflation — it’s a long-term mistake. Never short, borrow, or invest in what you don’t understand! Shorting risks total loss — one error kills you. Investing needs no courage; needing courage means you’re in danger. Borrowing is risky — no one knows how wild markets get. Buffett said: “Don’t borrow if you don’t understand investing. If you do, you’ll get rich anyway.” Long-term, markets rise. Value investors make mistakes, but shorting guarantees one fatal error — why bother?
# Q51: 很多时候，人们充满赌博的勇气，但在危机中，人们常常又会太过恐惧。（People gamble with courage but panic during crises.）
段永平： 危机大概5-8年来一次，希望下次来的时候，你记得来看一眼，然后擦擦冷汗，把能投进去的钱�����投进去。但是千万别借钱，因为没人知道市场疯狂起来到底有多疯狂。负债的好处是可以发展快些，不负债的好处是可以活得长些。无论你借不借钱，一生当中都会失去无穷机会的，但借钱可能会让你再也没机会了。融券借钱是非常危险的，因为市场偶尔会非常不理性，而且时间长了，每个人都会碰上市场极端不理性的时刻。用融券的人有时候碰上一次就一夜回到解放前了。借钱的前提是，如果最坏的情况发生，你也能还钱，不要有侥幸心理。比如你借人一万块，但一年的工资收入有10万块，这种借款就是没问题的。
Duan Yongping: Crises hit every 5–8 years. When the next comes, remember to check prices and invest what you can. Never use leverage — no one knows how insane markets get. Leverage accelerates growth but kills you when things go wrong. Everyone misses infinite opportunities with or without leverage, but debt might ruin you. Margin is deadly — one irrational market phase wipes you out. Borrow only if you can repay even in the worst case. E.g., borrowing $10k when your annual income is $100k is safe.
# Q52: 小投资者可能会觉得，反正自己也没有多少钱，不赌一把试试，肯定没有赚大钱的机会。（Small investors gamble since they think they have nothing to lose.）
段永平： 这个世界上没有投资人不想赚大钱，知道什么不可为，比知道什么可为要重要的多。
Duan Yongping: Every investor wants to get rich, but knowing what not to do is far more important than knowing what to do.
# Q53: 有些人说，自己只是运气不好，被不守信用的人欺骗、利用了。（Some blame bad luck for being scammed.）
段永平： 被人骗得多，是因为贪心，或者叫不本分。不然，想骗我的人，肯定比想骗平常人多一些。我对投资的理解很简单，但这个“简单”其实非常不容易。简单指的是大原则，是“是非”，不容易指的是技巧，就是要“做对的事情，把事情做对”的意思。最重要的是要有是非观，要有长远的看法。凡事如果能想着10年20年，大概就不会那么困惑了。有时候，你做的有些选择，留给你的并不是舒服，只是暂时逃避了问题或得到一点点眼前的好处，但很可能会因此失去内心的平静。要守正不出奇。
Duan Yongping: People get scammed because of greed or lack of principles. If I’m cheated, it’s my fault, not others’. My investing philosophy is simple but hard. Simplicity lies in core principles (right vs. wrong); complexity in execution. The key is moral clarity and long-term thinking. If you think 10–20 years ahead, confusion disappears. Some choices bring temporary relief but long-term regret — abandon them. Always act ethically, not opportunistically.