段永平采访-企业案例篇下
腾讯10-15年内一年可以赚2000-3000亿 Tencent will likely achieve an annual profit of 200–300 billion RMB within 10–15 years .
# Q152: 你在2018年买了腾讯？（Did you buy Tencent in 2018?）
段永平：
当时确实投了一些，但比例还很小。用苹果换有点不舍得，我似乎更懂苹果。投资标准很简单：商业模式、企业文化、合理价钱。当这三者匹配时，我就会出手。腾讯确实不错，长长的坡，厚厚的雪！没买的原因主要是懒得调钱去港股，反正钱没闲着。
Duan Yongping:
I invested a small amount in Tencent then — though reluctant to swap Apple shares. My criteria: business model, corporate culture, fair price. Tencent fits — long-term growth potential, strong moat. I avoided it earlier due to logistical hassle with Hong Kong stocks; my funds were already working elsewhere.
# Q153: 腾讯40%利润来自投资，算多元化吗？（Is Tencent’s 40% investment profit considered diversification?）
段永平：
腾讯的投资多为相关领域，非为多元化而多元。这些投资未影响主业，反而互补。产品上腾讯不算多元，但投资看似分散，实际关联性强。至少他们不追求纯粹的多元化。
Duan Yongping:
Tencent’s investments are mostly related, not pure diversification. They enhance core businesses rather than dilute them. Tencent’s products aren’t diversified, but even their seemingly scattered investments link back to their main strategy. Diversification isn’t their goal.
# Q154: 什么叫多元化？（What defines diversification?）
段永平：
如果业务间关联度低，就算多元化。苹果各业务高度协同，显然不算。
Duan Yongping:
Diversification means unrelated businesses under one management. Apple’s integrated ecosystem clearly isn’t — they focus on core strengths.
# Q155: 多元化失败常因跨界成功后的盲目自信？（Do diversification failures stem from overconfidence after initial success?）
段永平：
多数人因局部成功自大，跨出能力圈。试错不为过，但很多人追风口，脱离原有用户群。例如腾讯做房地产才算跨界；为员工盖楼不算。
Duan Yongping:
Many companies overextend after success — thinking they can conquer any new field. Experimentation isn’t bad, but chasing trends unrelated to core users often fails. Tencent building real estate? That’s diversification. Building staff housing? Core-aligned.
# Q156: 腾讯PE37倍是否太贵？（Is Tencent’s 37x PE too high?）
段永平：
对比苹果、茅台，37倍PE不算便宜。但微信潜力巨大，10年15%增速已满足。关键看机会成本——若未来10-15年腾讯年利润达2000-3000亿，当前估值合理。
Duan Yongping:
37x PE isn’t cheap versus Apple/Moutai. But WeChat’s potential justifies it. If Tencent hits 2000-300B RMB annual profit in 10–15 years, current valuation makes sense. It’s about opportunity cost — 10-year 15% growth satisfies me.
# Q157: 腾讯未来价值未完全体现？（Does Tencent have hidden value?）
段永平：
马化腾年轻，微信及支付影响深远。微信支付复杂，但长远潜力大。FB的加密货币布局、Apple Card的成功显示支付领域前景广阔。中国99%场景已无现金——未来支付市场有趣。
Duan Yongping:
Pony Ma’s youth and vision (WeChat/WePay) ensure long-term impact. WePay’s complexity hides its true potential. FB’s Libra and Apple Card show payment innovation’s power. In China, 99% of transactions are cashless — Tencent’s payment future is bright.
# Q158: 腾讯多少市值合适？（What’s a fair valuation for Tencent?）
段永平：
合适与否取决于机会成本。当年苹果3000亿市值时，我认为它未来利润会超500亿，就果断买入。腾讯若10-15年利润达2000-3000亿，当前估值合理。
Duan Yongping:
Fair price = opportunity cost. When Apple was $300B, I bought because 500B+ profit looked certain. Tencent’s $200-300B RMB profit in 10–15 years makes current prices fair. It’s not about market price — it’s about your own alternatives.
# Q159: 茅台、腾讯、阿里选谁？（Moutai, Tencent, or Alibaba?）
段永平：
取决于你真懂哪个。假设它们是非上市公司，10年后你会选哪个？若无法判断，一个都别碰。若觉得都好但难分辨，可分散持有。
Duan Yongping:
Pick based on understanding. If all were private, which would you choose in 10 years? If unsure, avoid them. If confident but indecisive, diversify.
# Q160: 数字货币怎么看？（Your view on cryptocurrency?）
段永平：
目前处于“不明觉厉”阶段，长期或成大事。传统银行会受冲击，有的甚至因此更强。
Duan Yongping:
Crypto is currently “impressive but unclear.” Long-term, it could reshape finance. Banks will adapt — some might thrive more.
# Q161: 会冲击实体银行吗？（Will it disrupt traditional banks?）
段永平：
移动互联网正在改变银行。10年后变化明显。我不认为实体银行会消失，但未来银行与现在会很不同。
Duan Yongping:
Mobile internet is reshaping banking. Changes will show in 10 years. Physical banks won’t vanish, but future banks will differ significantly.
# Q162: 巴菲特投银行，你为何不投？（Why don’t you follow Buffett into banks?）
段永平：
我不懂，总觉得不踏实。巴菲特投可口可乐因“必须喝”，我选游戏因“必须玩”。
Duan Yongping:
I avoid banks — lack understanding. Buffett buys Coca-Cola (people must drink); I buy games (people must play).
# Q163: 你投了Facebook？（Did you invest in Facebook?）
段永平：
近年重仓苹果、茅台，增配腾讯和FB，少量Google。拼多多除外的话，基本如此。
Duan Yongping:
Recent focus: Apple, Moutai, plus Tencent and FB. Minor Google exposure. No PDD? That’s the only gap.
# Q164: 投资FB的逻辑？（Why Facebook?）
段永平：
生意模式、企业文化优秀，扎克伯格年轻，增长空间大。FB早期忽视隐私，现在已修正。犯错时的好公司，反而是买入机会。
Duan Yongping:
Great business model, culture, and young leadership. Early privacy missteps were fixed — mistakes in great companies often create buying opportunities.
# Q165: 好公司犯错时逆向买入？（Is buying during crises your pattern?）
段永平：
买网易、苹果、茅台都不是逆向投资，只是基于价值判断。我从不刻意求稳，只关注“长期回报高的公司”。当年买网易因低估，卖早了少赚很多。
Duan Yongping:
NetEase, Apple, Moutai weren’t “contrarian” buys — just value-driven. I never seek stability, only long-term returns. Selling NetEase early at 100x gains cost me 500x potential.
# Q166: 为何不投亚马逊？（Why no Amazon in your portfolio?）
段永平：
知道它是伟大公司，但估值困难。未来年利润500亿+不难，但换股操作复杂。74%美国人首选亚马逊，但零售业可能走向赢者通吃。
Duan Yongping:
Amazon’s greatness is clear, but I struggle with valuation. Future $50B+ profit seems easy. Yet swapping stocks is complex — 74% U.S. shoppers pick Amazon first. Retail may consolidate — few giants dominate.
# Q167: 房地产行业负债高，商业模式差？（Real estate’s high debt = poor business model?）
段永平：
负债高不等于模式差。银行同样高负债，但优秀者仍存。电子消费品竞争激烈，但苹果证明差异化可破局。
Duan Yongping:
High debt ≠ bad model. Banks have high debt yet thrive. Consumer electronics are tough, but Apple shows differentiation works.
# Q168: 电子行业胜出的基因？（What makes tech companies win?）
段永平：
多数电子公司不值得投，因模式一般。差异化是关键——苹果靠iPhone，其他公司难复制。
Duan Yongping:
Most tech firms aren’t worth it — average models. Sustained differentiation drives Apple’s iPhone profits. Others fail to replicate this.
# Q169: 机器取代人？（Will machines replace humans?）
段永平：
机器在投机领域已胜出，但投资需人类智慧——机器看不懂企业本质。
Duan Yongping:
Machines dominate trading (e.g., algorithmic speculation), but investing requires human judgment — machines can’t grasp business essence.
# Q170: 投资拼多多的逻辑？（Why Pinduoduo?）
段永平：
不投早期项目，拼多多上市后才购入。黄峥是我10年朋友，信任其“看本质”的能力。投资本质是押注他的进化，10年后或与淘宝平分天下。
Duan Yongping:
I avoid pre-IPO bets — only invest post-listing. I’ve known Colin Huang (PDD founder) for 10+ years. His focus on fundamentals makes PDD a bet on evolution. In 10 years, PDD might rival Taobao.
# Q171: 会继续买拼多多吗？（Will you add to PDD?）
段永平：
视作风投，比例小。上市后象征性加仓，但已足够。多年无购股冲动，但PDD仍有兴趣。10年内不会卖，有机会还会买。
Duan Yongping:
Treat PDD as VC — low allocation. Post-IPO added slightly, but now comfortable. Haven’t felt urgency to buy any company in years, yet still interested in PDD. Won’t sell for 10 years.
# Q172: 拼多多怎么估值？（How to value PDD?）
段永平：
初期无法精算，但相信其文化终将转化价值。流量变现容易，只是不急于赚钱。10年后与淘宝平分天下是可能的。
Duan Yongping:
No precise math — bet on culture. Monetization potential exists, but not urgent. If 10年后 PDD rivals Taobao, returns justify. They’ll likely hit $20–30B RMB profit — patient monetization with integrity.
# Q173: 拼多多的核心优势？（PDD’s edge?）
段永平：
流量来自真实需求，变现不难。相比其他平台，拼多多更专注下沉市场，但未来或扩展至全市场。
Duan Yongping:
PDD’s traffic stems from real demand — monetization is easy. Unlike others, they focus on lower-tier markets. Future expansion to broader demographics? Possible.
# Q174: 你用过拼多多吗？（Have you used Pinduoduo?）
段永平：
投资的时候没有用过，但前段时间回国时在拼多多上买了些东西，没经历不好的体验。举个例子，这次回去忘了带冲鼻子的瓶子和盐（对付过敏用的），去商店也没找到，在拼多多和另一家电商上找到了，拼多多只要两天就到货，还稍微便宜些，就买了，东西和我原来用的是一样一样的。我还没空去自己体验过迪斯尼的感觉，但Costco的感觉有了。
Duan Yongping:
I didn’t use Pinduoduo before investing, but later bought items there — no bad experience. For example, I forgot my nasal irrigation bottle/salt (for allergies), found them on PDD and another platform. PDD delivered in 2 days at a lower price. The product matched my original one. Haven’t tried Disney, but I’ve felt Costco’s appeal.
# Q175: 国内很多企业都在搞新零售，你怎么看？（Your view on China’s “New Retail” trend?）
段永平：
没太关注这个名词，你是说像拼多多这种电商吗？目前74%的美国人民的首选已经是亚马逊了（今天网上看到的），所以说新零售确实很恐怖。不过，这个行业非常可能赢家通吃，或几个大头垄断，很多企业搞的现象也许持续不了太久。
Duan Yongping:
Not focused on the term — do you mean e-commerce like PDD? 74% of U.S. shoppers pick Amazon first. New retail is indeed powerful. But the industry may consolidate — only a few giants survive, others fade quickly.
# Q176: 拼多多和苹果谁更有吸引力？（PDD vs. Apple: which is more attractive?）
段永平：
从10年的角度看，拼多多显然机会大些，但风险也大些。
Duan Yongping:
PDD has higher growth potential but also higher risk over 10 years.
# Q177: 跟网易比呢？（PDD vs. NetEase?）
段永平：
它跟买网易不同，我非常懂游戏，当时非常确定他们将来会赚很多钱，不知道的只是到底能赚多少。对拼多多来说，我目前的水平依然不知道他们未来能不能赚到符合目前市值的利润。当初投拼多多时就不知道最终能否赚钱，现在看数据后依然不确定，但显然他们的影响力已经大了很多。我现在觉得他们能做出来的机会比三年前大了许多。
Duan Yongping:
NetEase’s gaming business was clear to me — I knew profits would be huge, just unsure how much. For PDD, I still can’t predict if profits will match current valuation. My confidence grew as PDD’s influence expanded — better chance than 3 years ago.
# Q178: 投资拼多多的风险在哪里？（PDD’s investment risks?）
段永平：
我要知道就不是风投了。
Duan Yongping:
If I could explain all risks, it wouldn’t be venture investing.
# Q179: 你在投资上犯过什么错误？（Your investment mistakes?）
段永平：
投机百度时被short squeeze夹空，亏了1-2亿美元。经验教训：学习老巴——想不通的不碰，虽错失机会，但抓住的都是对的。老巴逻辑：先看商业模式，理解企业怎么挣钱。95%的人focus在市场波动上，不懂投资。一定要focus在生意本身。我以前犯错，可能因做了错事，或做对事时出错。未来犯错，大概率是执行能力问题。
Duan Yongping:
Speculating on Baidu’s short squeeze cost me $100–200M. Buffett’s lesson: avoid what you don’t understand. Missing opportunities is okay if you capture key ones. Buffett’s rule: focus on business models. 95% of investors chase market noise — true investing means focusing on how companies earn money. Past mistakes came from wrong actions or execution errors. Future errors will likely stem from skill gaps.
# Q180: 卖掉万科是错误吗？（Was selling Vanke a mistake?）
段永平：
不是。我买时2块多，认为值10块+。涨到10块时因资金需求卖出，虽现在涨到20块+，但不后悔。再涨与否与我无关，因已满足最初判断。
Duan Yongping:
No — bought at ~$2, sold at ~$10 due to cash needs. Now at ~$20? Not regretting — initial logic held. What matters is understanding your own thresholds.
# Q181: 事后发现事实或逻辑错误的投资？（Investments where logic later failed?）
段永平：
特斯拉是典型。买过不少股票，但买了车后发现小毛病多，且官方明确表示暂不改进。后来卖了，发现GE也是错误。虽赚了几千万，但长期看它们价值为零。
Duan Yongping:
Tesla was a classic mistake — bought cars, found flaws, and learned they’d delay fixes. GE also misaligned with my expectations. Both made short-term gains but long-term risks are fatal.
# Q182: 特斯拉的问题？（Tesla’s issues?）
段永平：
特斯拉企业文化糟糕，经常说瞎话。我如果认为一家公司不诚信，就坚决不碰。禁区是生意模式差或文化差的公司。马斯克为野心不择手段，像大孩子求关注。时间够长，麻烦必现。
Duan Yongping:
Tesla’s culture is flawed — frequent dishonesty. I avoid companies lacking integrity. Red flags: poor business models or toxic culture. Musk’s obsession with growth resembles a child seeking attention — short-term gains, long-term collapse.
# Q183: 怎么看马斯克？（Your view on Elon Musk?）
段永平：
芒格说他是天才，IQ 190，但他自认250。但经营公司需要理性！现在看来，他干的事有时真像250。Musk天赋可造好产品，但太沉迷短期“报时”（炫耀成功）。
Duan Yongping:
Charlie Munger called him a genius (IQ 190), but he acts like 250. Running a company demands rationality — some of his moves seem irrational. His talent builds great products, but he chases short-term glory over sustainable success.
# Q184: 企业家与企业文化的关系？（Entrepreneur vs. corporate culture?）
段永平：
不合适的人管理公司，风险难控。文化好的公司，更早发现问题并纠正，存活概率大。时间会证明一切。特斯拉是我最“帅”的错误——买错股还赚了几千万。这些年我像个乌鸦嘴，说谁不行，谁最后果然不行。内在原因是，我避开利益导向的公司。Musk的利益导向体现在个人野心上，他可能是个不择手段的大孩子。时间够长，麻烦必现。
Duan Yongping:
Poor leadership often destroys companies. Strong cultures enable early correction — survival odds improve. Tesla was my “best” mistake — lost money but still made millions. I’ve been a jinx — companies I criticize fail. Root cause: I avoid profit-driven firms. Musk’s ambition-first approach feels childish — short-term wins, long-term collapse.
# Q185: 对宁德时代的看法？（Your view on CATL, Tesla’s battery supplier?）
段永平：
这类产品差异化小、变化快，建立护城河有点难度。
Duan Yongping:
Products lack differentiation, rapid obsolescence — moat-building is tough.
# Q186: GE退出道指的原因？（Why did GE exit Dow Jones?）
段永平：
GE以前的文化是我喜欢的——正直高于一切。后来发现新CEO去韦尔奇化，财报修饰痕迹明显，生意太复杂，所以我全卖了。现在看，时间长了，多元化终将失效。
Duan Yongping:
GE once prioritized integrity above all. Later, the CEO abandoned Welch’s legacy — earnings looked engineered. Complex business + weak culture = sell. Time proved diversification doesn’t work long-term.
# Q187: GE退出道指说明什么？（What does GE’s Dow exit imply?）
段永平：
CEO出差居然有私人飞机随行，更恐怖的是，他说“不知道”——没见过这么不靠谱的。
Duan Yongping:
The CEO travels with private planes, yet claims “no knowledge” of misconduct — truly absurd. Unbelievable incompetence.
# Q188: 犯错后怎么做？（How to handle mistakes?）
段永平：
发现错误立即改正，不管付出多大代价，都是最小的代价；不改正将付出更大代价。我一直强调：做对的事，把事做对。做对的事=不干错事，错事立即改。比如不诚信是错事，所以不做；借margin炒股是错事，所以不做。商业承诺兑现不了时，代价是该承担的，逃避才叫不诚信。老巴说：“如果已经在坑里，至少别再往下挖。”有人问：明知错还会做？世界有趣之处在于，短期诱惑常引人犯错——比如好吃但不健康的食物。
Duan Yongping:
Fix mistakes immediately — the cost is smallest then. Ignoring them guarantees deeper losses. Buffett said: If you’re in a hole, stop digging. People act against logic for short-term gain — like eating tasty but unhealthy food. For example, Tesla’s short-term gains masked long-term flaws.