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技术投资界的农民, Stay Hungry, Stay Foolish!
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    • 《JavaScript教程》
    • 《JavaScript高级程序设计》
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    • 《React》
    • 《TypeScript 从零实现 axios》
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  • 投资基础

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    • 段永平

    • 巴菲特

      • 2025巴菲特致股东的信
      • 2025巴菲特股东大会800字精华版及问答全文
        • 投资界的盛会(Annual Event of the Investment Community)
        • 股东问答环节(Q&A Session)
          • 关于贸易(About Trade)
          • 关于美国(About the United States)
          • 关于日本(About Japan)
          • 关于美股(About US Stocks)
          • 关于创纪录现金储备(On Record Cash Reserves)
          • 关于接班人(About the Successor)
          • 关于伯克希尔(About Berkshire)
          • 关于投资公司(About Investment Companies)
          • 关于年轻人投资(On Young People's Investment)
          • 公司第一季度运营利润(First-Quarter Operating Profit)
          • 美元贬值的影响(Impact of Dollar Depreciation)
          • 股票交易动态(Stock Trading Activity)
          • 现金储备创新高(Record High Cash Reserves)
        • 问答环节开始(Opening Remarks for the Q&A Session)
        • Q1: Trade
        • Q2: Japan
        • Q3: Deployment of Berkshire's Huge Cash
        • Q4: 房地产投资的挑战(Real Estate Investment Challenges)
        • Q5: AI对保险业的影响(AI's Impact on the Insurance Industry)
        • Q6: 为何投资热狗公司Portillo's(Why Invest in Portillo's)
        • Q7: 对美国的乐观与悲观(Optimism vs. Pessimism Toward the United States)
        • Q8: 投资中的耐心原则(Patience in Investment)
        • Q9: 车险公司Geico(The Auto Insurance Company Geico)
        • Q10: 阿贝尔为何是合适的接班人(Why Abel Is a Suitable Successor)
        • Q11: 美元贬值与货币风险(U.S. Dollar Depreciation and Currency Risks)
        • Q12: 蒙古(Mongolia)
        • Q13: 私募公司竞争保险业(Private Equity Firms Competing in the Insurance Industry)
        • Q14: 年轻人投资(Young People's Investment)
        • Q15: 最近的市场震荡是否提供了投资机会(Recent Market Shock and Investment Opportunities)
        • Q16: 如何应对人生挫折(How to Deal with Setbacks in Life)
        • Q17: 自动驾驶的影响(Autonomous Driving and Its Impact)
        • Q18: 阿贝尔希望被如何铭记(How Abel Would Like to Be Remembered)
        • Q19: 财报与资本配置(Berkshire's Capital Allocation After Abel Takes Over From Buffett)
        • Q20: 一名14岁女孩的梦想(A 14-Year-Old Girl Wants to Join Berkshire)
        • Q21: 野火对公用事业的影响(Wildfires Affecting Utilities and Risk Strategies)
        • Q22: 女粉丝的愿望(A Female Fan's Wish to Meet Buffett)
        • Q23: 收购伯克希尔能源业务剩余资产(Acquisition of the Remaining Assets of Berkshire's Own Energy Sector)
        • Q24: 伯克希尔未来盈利展望(Berkshire's Future Earnings)
        • Q25: 科技巨头股票(Tech Giants' Stocks)
        • Q26: 高中课程是否有助于投资(High School Courses That Help with Investing)
        • Q27: 关于DOGE的问题(Is DOGE Good or Bad for the United States in the Long Run)
        • Q28: 回到1776年,如何为美国奠定资本主义基础(If We Travel Back to 1776, How Can We Create the Foundation of Capitalism for the United States and Support Its Long-Term Prosperity)
        • Q29: 子公司运营模式(Berkshire's Model for Operating Subsidiaries)
        • Q30: 对环境变化的看法(Berkshire's View on Environmental Changes)
        • Q31: 美国医疗改革(U.S. Health Care Reform)
        • Q32: 阿贝尔未来角色(Abel's Role in the Future)
        • 股东大会问答环节结束(The Q&A Session Ends)
      • 2024巴菲特致股东的信
      • 2024巴菲特股东大会4.5万字问答实录
      • 2023巴菲特致股东的信
      • 2023巴菲特股东大会6万字问答实录
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      • 2014伯克希尔的过去现在及未来
      • 2013巴菲特致股东的信
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    • 港美股

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westeast
2025-05-16
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2025巴菲特股东大会800字精华版及问答全文中英

# 2025 Buffett Shareholders Meeting 800-word Highlights and Full Text(2025巴菲特股东大会800字精华版及全文)

The Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting, an annual event in the investment community, kicked off on May 2. Warren Buffett, the "stock god", once again participated in the whole process, answering shareholders' questions together with his CEO successor Greg Abel, head of Berkshire's non-insurance business, and Ajit Jain, head of insurance business.

投资界的年度盛会——伯克希尔-哈撒韦股东大会在5月2日拉开帷幕。“股神”巴菲特再次全程参与,携他的CEO接班人伯克希尔非保险业务的负责人阿贝尔(Greg Abel)以及保险业务负责人贾因(Ajit Jain),共同回答股东提问。

# 投资界的盛会(Annual Event of the Investment Community)

The Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting, the annual event of the investment community, kicked off on May 2, and the shareholder question-and-answer session began at 9 p.m. on Saturday, Beijing time.

投资界的年度盛会——伯克希尔-哈撒韦股东大会在5月2日拉开帷幕,北京时间2日周六晚9点进入大会股东问答环节。


# 股东问答环节(Q&A Session)

"The Oracle of Omaha" Buffett once again participated in the whole process and answered shareholders' questions together with his CEO successor, Greg Abel, head of Berkshire's non-insurance business, and Ajit Jain, head of the insurance business.

“股神”巴菲特再次全程参与,携他的CEO接班人——伯克希尔非保险业务的负责人阿贝尔(Greg Abel)以及保险业务负责人贾因(Ajit Jain)共同回答股东提问。


Wall Street News summarized the main points of the Buffett Shareholders Meeting as follows:

华尔街见闻总结的巴菲特股东大会要点如下:


# 关于贸易(About Trade)

"Trade should not be a weapon," he said. The United States should seek to trade with other countries and do what each country is good at. Protectionist policies are a "serious mistake."

“贸易不应成为武器”,美国应寻求与他国进行贸易,做各自擅长的事。保护主义政策是一个“严重的错误”。


# 关于美国(About the United States)

"Fiscal policy is my biggest concern in the United States," he said, adding that when the government acts irresponsibly, the value of the currency could be "horrible."

Buffett hinted that he was going all in on the United States and supported American exceptionalism, saying that his luckiest day was the day he was born in the United States, which is a model of capitalism.

“财政政策是我在美国最担心的问题”,当政府采取不负责任的行动,货币的价值可能会“令人恐惧”。

巴菲特暗示全力押注美国、支持美国例外论,称他最幸运的日子是出生在美国那天,美国是资本主义的典范。


# 关于日本(About Japan)

We don’t invest overseas easily unless I think it’s an opportunity with real potential.

He plans to continue holding shares of Japanese trading companies for another 50 to 60 years. Even if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, he will not consider selling.

Berkshire's current investment in Japan has reached $20 billion, and I even wish we had invested $100 billion instead of $20 billion.

我们不会轻易在海外投资,除非我认为那是一个真正具备巨大潜力的机会。

打算继续持有日本商社的股票五六十年。就算日本央行加息,他也不考虑抛售。

伯克希尔目前在日本的投资已达200亿美元,我甚至希望当初我们投资的是1000亿美元而不是200亿。


# 关于美股(About US Stocks)

The recent volatility experienced by the U.S. stock market is "not a major fluctuation" and compared with past crashes, "it is not a severe bear market" or a similar situation.

近期美股经历的“不是什么重大波动”,相比过去的崩盘,“还不算是一场剧烈的熊市”,也不是类似情况。


# 关于创纪录现金储备(On Record Cash Reserves)

There may be investment opportunities over the next five years regarding how to use Berkshire's record cash reserves.

Berkshire recently came close to making a $10 billion investment.

对于如何利用伯克希尔创纪录规模的现金储备,未来五年内可能有投资机会。

最近伯克希尔差点进行100亿美元投资。


# 关于接班人(About the Successor)

Abel, head of Berkshire's non-insurance business, should take over as CEO at the end of the year. He will not sell any of his Berkshire shares and will gradually donate them.

伯克希尔非保险业务的负责人阿贝尔年底应该会接任CEO。他不会抛售任何所持的伯克希尔股份,将逐步捐赠。


# 关于伯克希尔(About Berkshire)

If Berkshire's stock price drops by half one day, it will be an opportunity for me. It's not that I don't have emotions, but the fluctuation of stock prices will not affect my rational judgment. It will not affect my assessment of value.

Overall, Berkshire's profitability will continue to grow for some time.

如果哪天伯克希尔的股价下跌一半,对我来说反而是个机会。不是说我没有情绪,而是股价的波动不会左右我理性的判断。它不会影响我对价值的评估。

从整体来看,伯克希尔的盈利能力在一段时间内仍会持续增长。


# 关于投资公司(About Investment Companies)

Buffett believes that the balance sheet is a good starting point for evaluating whether a company is worth investing in.

“I spend more time looking at balance sheets than I do income statements,” he said. “Wall Street doesn’t really pay much attention to balance sheets, but I like to look at eight to 10 years of a company’s balance sheet before I look at the income statement because some things are harder to hide or manipulate on a balance sheet.”

巴菲特认为资产负债表是评估一家公司是否值得投资的一个良好起点。

他说:“我花在研究资产负债表上的时间,比看利润表的时间还多。而华尔街其实并不太关注资产负债表,但我喜欢在看利润表之前,先查看一家公司八到十年的资产负债表,因为有些东西在资产负债表上更难隐藏或操纵。”


# 关于年轻人投资(On Young People's Investment)

If your life has a direction, then you should strive to make friends those people you respect and aspire to be like.

The fastest path to success is to find truly outstanding people and walk with them.

如果你的人生有一个方向,那你就要努力让那些你尊敬、渴望成为的人成为你的朋友。

最快的成功路径,就是找到那种真正优秀的人,并与之同行。


At the end of the Q&A session, Buffett announced that he plans to propose to the board that he step down as CEO at the end of this year. That will be the beginning of the end of the "Buffett era" at Berkshire. Investors should prepare for a Berkshire without Buffett at the helm.

巴菲特在问答环节尾声宣布,他计划向董事会提议,今年底就卸任CEO。那将是伯克希尔“巴菲特时代”落幕的开始。投资者要为一个没有巴菲特掌舵的伯克希尔做好准备。


Before the Q&A session of the shareholders' meeting, Berkshire Hathaway also released its first quarter financial report for this year. Some of the key points are as follows:

在股东大会问答环节开始前,伯克希尔哈撒韦还发布了今年一季度财报,部分要点如下:


# 公司第一季度运营利润(First-Quarter Operating Profit)

The company's first-quarter operating profit was $9.64 billion, down 14% from $11.2 billion in the same period last year, and below analysts' expectations. The company warned that tariffs could further hit its profits.

公司第一季度运营利润为96.4亿美元,去年同期112亿美元,同比下跌14%,不及分析师预期。该公司警告,关税可能会进一步打击公司利润。


# 美元贬值的影响(Impact of Dollar Depreciation)

Berkshire's overall profits also took a hit from the depreciation of the U.S. dollar in the first quarter. The company said it recorded a loss of about $713 million in foreign exchange, compared with a gain of $597 million from currency fluctuations in the same period last year.

伯克希尔的整体利润还因美元在第一季度贬值而遭受冲击。公司表示在外汇方面录得大约7.13亿美元的损失,而去年同期则因汇率波动获得了5.97亿美元的收益。


# 股票交易动态(Stock Trading Activity)

Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks for the tenth consecutive quarter, with a net sale of $1.5 billion in stock assets in the first quarter.

伯克希尔已经连续第十个季度成为股票的净卖出方,一季度净卖出15亿美元的股票资产。


# 现金储备创新高(Record High Cash Reserves)

The financial report shows that Berkshire's cash reserves reached $347.7 billion in the quarter, setting a new record high. In an environment of extremely high uncertainty caused by tariffs, Buffett is cautious about current investments and expects that there may be good investment opportunities in the next five years. He said that Berkshire's suspension of repurchases was partly due to the law introduced by the Biden administration last year to impose a 1% consumption tax on stock repurchases.

财报显示,伯克希尔的现金储备当季达到3477亿美元,再创历史新高。在关税导致不确定性极高的环境下,巴菲特对当前的投资持谨慎态度,预计未来五年可能有好的投资机会,称伯克希尔暂缓回购部分源于去年拜登政府出台的法律对股票回购征1%的消费税。

# 股东大会问答环节实录(Transcript of the Buffett Shareholders Meeting Q&A Session)

# 问答环节开始(Opening Remarks for the Q&A Session)

21:00 Opening remarks for the Q&A session of the 2025 Annual General Meeting
The shareholders' meeting began. Buffett said at the opening that this was his 60th shareholders' meeting. There was thunderous applause.
Buffett said that this year, 19,700 people came to attend the shareholders' meeting, setting a record for the number of spectators. At the shareholders' meeting, See's Candies' sales reached $317,000. Brooks running shoes' sales reached $310,000, and Jazwares' toys and other products sold $250,000.
Buffett introduced that this conference will sell a limited number of books commemorating the 60th anniversary of Berkshire's acquisition. This is the only book sold at the official bookstore Bookworm this year. Berkshire printed and published about 8,000 books, about 3,000 more than originally planned, and about 4,000 copies have been sold at the conference.

21:00 2025年股东大会问答环节开场白
股东大会开始。巴菲特在大会开幕时表示,这是我的第六十届股东大会。现场掌声雷动。
巴菲特介绍,今年有1.97万人来到现场出席股东大会,现场观众人数创最高纪录。股东大会现场,See’s Candies糖果的销售额已达到31.7万美元。布鲁克斯Brooks跑鞋的销售额为31万美元,Jazwares旗下玩具等产品售出25万美元。

巴菲特介绍,本次大会限量发售纪念伯克希尔被收购60周年的图书。这是今年官方书店Bookworm唯一出售的图书。伯克希尔印刷出版了约8000本书,比最初计划增加约3000本,在大会现场已售出约4000本。


# Q1: Trade

21:21 The first question of the shareholders' meeting: Trade
The first question to Buffett was about import certificates, a proposal he proposed in a 2003 column as an effort to reduce the U.S. trade deficit.

“Import certificates are designed to balance trade. I devised this idea of import certificates. It’s a little bit gimmicky, but I think it’s certainly much better than anything we’re talking about right now,” Buffett said.

Buffett criticized tariffs and protectionism and said "trade should not be a weapon." He noted that the United States went from nothing to an extremely important country.

"We should seek to trade with the rest of the world," Buffett said. "We should do what we do best and they should do what they do best. The more trade, the better."

"You can make some very good arguments that balanced trade is good for the world," Buffett said in response to a question about trade barriers. "There's no question that trade and tariffs can be an act of war. I think it has had adverse consequences, just in terms of the attitudes that it has engendered."

Buffett believes that protectionist policies may have a negative impact on the United States in the long run, especially after the United States has become the world's leading industrial country.

"That's a grave mistake in my opinion," he said. "When you have 7.5 billion people who don't like you very much, and you have 300 million people who are kind of showing off their achievements. I don't think it's right, I don't think it's wise. I do believe that the more support and prosperity the rest of the world gets, it's not to our detriment."

We have grown from nothing 250 years ago to become an extremely important country, which is unprecedented in history.

Buffett's speech won applause from the audience. Buffett did not directly mention US President Trump in his speech.

Q1: 贸易(Trade)
股东向巴菲特提问的第一个问题是关于进口凭证,这是他在2003年专栏中提出的一项建议,旨在减少美国的贸易赤字。

“进口凭证的设计目的是为了平衡贸易。我提出了这个想法。它有点像噱头,但我认为它肯定比我们现在讨论的任何方案都好得多。”

巴菲特批评了关税和保护主义政策,并表示:“贸易不应成为武器”。他指出,美国从一无所有发展到如今极其重要的地位。

“我们应该寻求与世界其他地区进行贸易,”巴菲特说,“我们做我们最擅长的事,他们也做他们最擅长的事。贸易越多越好。”

当被问及贸易壁垒时,巴菲特表示:“你可以非常有力地论证平衡贸易对世界是有益的。毫无疑问,贸易和关税可能是一种战争行为。我认为这已经产生了不良后果,特别是在由此引发的态度变化方面。”

巴菲特认为,长期来看,保护主义政策可能会对美国产生负面影响,尤其是在美国已经成为全球领先工业国之后。

他说:“在我看来这是一个严重的错误。当你面对75亿人对你没有太多好感,而你只有3亿人口却总是在炫耀自己的成就时,我不认为这样做是对的,也不明智。我相信,世界其他地区的支持和繁荣对我们来说并不是坏事。”

我们从250年前的一无所有发展成一个历史上前所未有的重要国家。

巴菲特的发言赢得了现场观众的热烈掌声。他在讲话中没有直接提及美国总统特朗普。


# Q2: Japan

21:26 Second question of the shareholders' meeting: Japan
Asked if he would stop investing in Japanese stocks if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates in the future, Buffett said he would not sell.

“We’re not going to sell these stocks for the next 50 years. These Japanese companies have a very good operating history,” Buffett said, noting that companies such as Apple, American Express and Coca-Cola have performed well in Japan.

Buffett said that investment in Japan is in full compliance with Berkshire's investment philosophy. The five Japanese trading companies invested by Berkshire have performed very well in the past, and he plans to continue holding the shares of these trading companies for 50 to 60 years and hopes to establish a long-term and deep cooperative relationship with them.

Buffett said that the culture and habits of these trading companies are different from ours, and their business methods are also different, but because of this, we cherish this cooperation even more. "We will not sell any shares. It will not happen for decades. Japan's investment is just what we want."

Buffett said Berkshire has no plans to sell the Japanese trading company's shares anytime soon. Their current operations are very successful, even though he is now 94 years old. Berkshire also plans to further expand the cooperation.

Buffett said that Berkshire's current investment in Japan has reached 20 billion US dollars, and I even wish we had invested 100 billion US dollars instead of 20 billion.

Q2: 日本(Japan)
当被问及如果日本央行未来加息是否会停止投资日本股票时,巴菲特表示不会抛售。

“在未来50年内我们都不会出售这些股票。这些日本公司有着非常好的运营历史。”巴菲特表示,并指出苹果、美国运通和可口可乐等公司在日本的表现良好。

巴菲特表示,对日本的投资完全符合伯克希尔的投资理念。伯克希尔投资的五家日本商社过去表现非常出色,他计划继续持有这些公司的股票50至60年,并希望与它们建立长期深入的合作关系。

他表示,这些商社的文化和习惯与我们不同,商业模式也不同,但正因为如此,我们更加珍惜这种合作。“我们不会出售任何股份。几十年内也不会发生。对日本的投资正是我们想要的。”

巴菲特表示,伯克希尔目前没有计划在短期内出售日本商社的股份。他们的运营目前非常成功,尽管他已经94岁,伯克希尔仍计划进一步扩大合作。

他说,伯克希尔目前在日本的投资已达200亿美元,我甚至希望当初我们投资的是1000亿美元而不是200亿。


# Q3: Deployment of Berkshire's Huge Cash

21:35 The third question of the shareholders' meeting: the deployment of Berkshire's huge cash
When asked about Berkshire's current massive cash pile, Buffett joked that he wasn't stopping investing to make Greg Abel "look good" in the future.

Buffett is cautious about current investment opportunities. He said he is always looking for investment opportunities and that Berkshire is "opportunistic" and he wants to reduce the cash on hand, possibly to $50 billion.

Buffett said Berkshire will find opportunities to put the company's record cash pile to work, most likely within the next five years.

"Occasionally there are very attractive opportunities. But not every day. It's unlikely that a great deal will appear tomorrow, but not in five years. We've made a lot of money by not fully investing at certain times."

Buffett revealed that Berkshire Hathaway almost spent $10 billion on an investment recently.

“Like, not too long ago, we were close to spending $10 billion, but we’re going to spend $100 billion now. I mean, when a project makes sense for us, we understand it and it’s good value, it’s not a hard decision to make.”

Buffett pointed out that one problem with the investment industry is that things don't proceed in an orderly manner.

Q3: 伯克希尔巨额现金的部署(Deployment of Berkshire's Huge Cash)
当被问到伯克希尔目前持有的巨额现金储备时,巴菲特开玩笑说,他停止投资并不是为了让格雷格·阿贝尔未来“看起来不错”。

巴菲特对当前的投资机会持谨慎态度。他表示,他一直在寻找投资机会,而且伯克希尔这家公司“机会主义色彩浓厚”,他希望减少手头的现金,可能降至500亿美元。

巴菲特说,伯克希尔将找到机会,将公司创纪录规模的现金投入使用,很可能在未来五年内实现。

“偶尔会有非常诱人的机会。但不是每天都有好机会。不太可能明天就出现极佳交易,但在五年内则不然。我们曾因在某些时候没有全额投资而赚了很多钱。”

巴菲特透露,伯克希尔近日差点斥资100亿美元进行投资。

“比如,不久前,我们差点就花了100亿美元,但我们现在会花1000亿美元。我的意思是,当某个项目对我们来说合理、我们理解并且具有良好价值时,做出这样的决定并不难。”

巴菲特指出,投资行业存在的一个问题是,事情的进展并不是井然有序的。

# Q4: 房地产投资的挑战(Real Estate Investment Challenges)

21:43 Fourth question of the shareholders' meeting: Challenges of real estate investment in an uncertain global environment
When asked how to deal with the challenges of the real estate industry in the current global environment full of uncertainty, Buffett said that real estate investment is more complicated and difficult than stocks. Whether it is communication, negotiation, or bargaining, there are many people and links involved, such as who is the owner, legal structure, funding arrangements, etc. It is really not easy to negotiate a deal in real estate and get a good price, because there are too many variables.

If you choose to invest in stocks, there is a huge advantage: countless opportunities can be seen every second, especially in the US market. In contrast, real estate transactions are slow-paced and highly dependent on personal communication and negotiation. Real estate investment may be done by one person alone or by a team.

Billions of dollars are traded every day on the New York Stock Exchange, and thousands of unknown investors are participating in market activities. You only need a suitable price to trade 20,000 shares of Berkshire Hathaway in 5 seconds. But real estate is not like this. To complete a real estate transaction, the process is not only cumbersome, but also takes a long time. Even if the transaction scale is large today, once it enters the negotiation stage, there are many factors to weigh and coordinate.

Buffett said that Berkshire has also invested in real estate, such as during the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. He suggested that if you want to invest in real estate, you must compare and choose in a smarter and more strategic way.

Q4: 全球不确定环境下投资房地产的挑战(Challenges of Real Estate Investment in an Uncertain Global Environment)
被问到,在当前全球充满不确定性的环境下,如何应对房地产业的挑战。巴菲特说,房地产的投资比股票更加复杂和困难。无论是沟通、谈判,还是议价,牵扯的人和环节都非常多,比如谁是业主、法律结构、资金安排等等。要在房地产中谈成一笔交易、拿到好价格,真的不容易,变数太多。

如果选择投资股票,有一个巨大的优势,那就是:每一秒都可以看到无数机会,尤其是在美国市场。相比之下,房地产交易是慢节奏的,而且高度依赖个人沟通和谈判。房地产投资可能是一个人单独完成的,也可能是一个团队操作的。

在纽交所,每天有几十亿美金在交易,成千上万不知名的投资者都在参与市场活动。你只需要一个合适的价格,就可以在5秒钟内成交2万股伯克希尔的股票。但房地产不是这样。要完成一笔房地产交易,不仅流程繁琐,周期也很长。即便今天的交易规模再大,一旦进入谈判阶段,要权衡和协调的因素也非常多。

巴菲特说,伯克希尔也做过房地产投资,比如在2008年、2009年金融危机期间。他建议:如果要做房地产,必须用更有智慧、更有策略的方式去比较、去选择。


# Q5: AI对保险业的影响(AI's Impact on the Insurance Industry)

21:49 Fifth question of the shareholders' meeting: The impact of AI on the insurance industry
The question of whether artificial intelligence (AI) can change the insurance industry was first answered by Jain, head of Berkshire's insurance business.

Jain said that people are investing a lot of time and money in AI. AI will be a game-changer. AI technology could "truly change" the way the insurance industry currently assesses, prices and sells risks, as well as the current way claims are settled.

But Jain noted that Berkshire will not be the first to adopt AI within its industry, and Berkshire has taken a more cautious approach to any high-profile new technology claims.

“I certainly think people will end up investing huge amounts of money chasing the next hot thing,” Jain said. “We’re not good at being the fastest or the first to move. Our approach is more of a wait-and-see approach until the opportunity materializes and we have a clearer understanding of the risks of failure, the pros and cons.”

However, Jain added that Berkshire would not hesitate to invest if the right opportunity presented itself.

“Some insurers are really experimenting with AI right now and trying to figure out the best way to use it, but we haven’t consciously invested a lot of money to seize the opportunity,” he said. “My guess is that we will be ready and jump in as soon as the opportunity presents itself.”

Buffett said he would let Jain decide what Berkshire's insurance business will look like over the next decade. Whether to use AI will be a choice made by Jain.

Q5: AI对保险业的影响(AI's Impact on the Insurance Industry)
有关人工智能(AI)能否改变保险业的问题先由伯克希尔的保险业务负责人贾因回答。

贾因说,人们对AI投入了很多时间和资金。AI将是用来改变行业规则的工具。AI技术可能会“真正改变”保险行业目前评估、定价和销售风险的方式,以及目前的理赔方式。

但贾恩指出,伯克希尔不会在行业内首先采用AI,伯克希尔对任何高调的新技术索赔都采取了更为谨慎的态度。

贾因说:“我当然也觉得,人们最终会投入巨额资金去追逐下一个新潮事物。”他说道。“我们并不擅长成为最快或最先行动的人。我们的做法更多的是观望,直到机会具体化,我们对失败风险、利弊都有更清晰的认识。”

不过,贾恩补充说,一旦合适的机会出现,伯克希尔会毫不犹豫地进行投资。

他说,“目前,一些保险公司确实在尝试AI,并试图找到最佳的利用方式,但我们还没有有意识地投入大量资金来抓住这个机会。我猜我们会做好准备,一旦机会出现,我们就会迅速投入。”

巴菲特说,他会让贾因来决定伯克希尔未来十年的保险业务。是否用AI将由贾因来选择。


# Q6: 为何投资热狗公司Portillo's(Why Invest in Portillo's)

21:52 Shareholders' Meeting Question 6: Why did Berkshire invest in the hot dog company Portillo's?
When asked why Berkshire bought Portillo's, a Chicago hot dog chain, Buffett said he didn't know much about Portillo's. He joked that someone might have bought it secretly.

Buffett then turned to an anecdote about Jay Pritzker, a relative of Illinois Governor JB Pritzker who bought a Brooklyn chocolate company decades ago. Buffett said Jay was an excellent manager.

Abel clarified that Berkshire does not own Portillo's. The company is actually owned by an investment firm with a similar name to Berkshire.

Q6: 伯克希尔为何投资热狗公司Portillo's(Why Did Berkshire Invest in the Hot Dog Company Portillo's)
有人问道,伯克希尔为何收购芝加哥热狗连锁店Portillo’s,巴菲特回答,他对Portillo’s了解不多。他开玩笑说,可能别人偷偷投的。

随后巴菲特转而讲述了一个关于Jay Pritzker的轶事。Jay是伊利诺伊州州长JB Pritzker的亲属,几十年前曾收购了一家布鲁克林的巧克力公司。巴菲特称,贾因是一位非常出色的管理者。

阿贝尔澄清说,伯克希尔并未拥有Portillo’s。这家公司实际上是由一家和伯克希尔名字相似的投资公司拥有。


# Q7: 对美国的乐观与悲观(Optimism vs. Pessimism Toward the United States)

22:00 The seventh question of the shareholders' meeting: The United States seems to be undergoing a huge change. Are we pessimistic or optimistic about the United States?
The questioner said that Buffett has always believed very much in the long-term advantages of the United States, but today the United States seems to be undergoing some unprecedented and almost "revolutionary" changes. As an investor, how should one evaluate the current situation and should one remain optimistic or pessimistic?

Buffett said that the questioner was a new generation of investors. In Berkshire's annual manager report, these macro-level comments are usually not seen. But he can say that the United States will not experience that kind of drastic "revolutionary" change.

Buffett said that the United States was once an agricultural country, but then society changed and the economy performed very well. It used to be a male-dominated era, but then fair reforms were carried out and the constitution was amended, so that women also had the same opportunities.

“I mentioned that we started out as an agricultural society. We started out as a society of promises, but we didn’t do a very good job of delivering on those promises. We’re always changing. We’re always going to find all kinds of criticism in this country, but the luckiest day of my life was the day I was born, (because) I was born in the United States.”

Buffett said that the transformation from 1920 to now, from 1776 to now, we have done a lot and it has taken a long time. I was born in the United States, and almost everything happened in the United States at that time, but it is different now. I am very lucky as a man born in the United States - it is not easy, but the United States has changed.

"We've been through the Great Depression, we've been through world wars, we've been through the development of the atomic bomb that was unthinkable when I was born, so I won't be discouraged even if we don't seem to have solved all the problems that arise. If I were born today, I would be negotiating in my womb until they allow you to go to the United States."

We've been through a lot from 1930 to now, like the Great Depression, two world wars, and the tensions caused by the atomic bomb. These are all experiences we've had along the way. We are a very lucky country, and I'm a very lucky person. I feel much luckier to be born in the United States than I would be anywhere else.

Q7: 美国似乎在经历巨变,对美国是悲观还是乐观(The United States Seems to Be Undergoing a Huge Change. Are We Pessimistic or Optimistic About the United States)
提问者称,巴菲特一直非常相信美国的长期优势,但今天的美国似乎正在经历一些前所未有、接近“革命性”的变化,作为投资者,怎样评估当下的局势,是应保持乐观还是悲观?

对这个问题,巴菲特回答,提问者是新一代的投资者。在伯克希尔的经理人年度报告里,通常看不到这些宏观层面的评论。但他可以说,美国不会经历那种剧烈的“革命”式变化。

巴菲特表示,美国曾是一个农业国家,后来社会发生了变化,经济表现也非常好。以前是男性主导的时代,后来进行了公平的改革,也修宪了,女性也有了同样的机会。

“我提到过,我们最初是一个农业社会。我们最初是一个充满希望的社会,但我们并没有很好地兑现承诺。我们一直在变化。我们总是会在这个国家发现各种各样的批评,但我一生中最幸运的一天是我出生的那一天,(因为)我出生在美国。”

巴菲特说,从1920年到现在的变革,从1776年到现在,我们做了很多事情,也花了很长时间。我出生在美国,那时几乎所有事情都发生在美国,但现在不一样了。我作为一个出生在美国的男性,非常幸运——这并不容易,但美国已经发生了改变。

“我们经历过经济大衰退,经历过世界大战,经历过我出生时做梦也想不到的原子弹的研制,所以即使我们似乎没有解决所有出现的问题,我也不会灰心。如果我今天出生,我会在子宫里一直谈判,直到他们允许你去美国。”

从1930年到现在,我们经历了很多事情,比如大萧条、两次世界大战,还有原子弹带来的紧张局势。这些都是我们一路走来的经历。我们是一个非常幸运的国家,我也是一个非常幸运的人。我觉得出生在美国,比出生在其他地方要幸运得多。

# Q8: 投资中的耐心原则(Patience in Investment)

22:04: The eighth question of the shareholders' meeting: Can the principle of patience be broken in investment?
Someone asked, is it possible to show impatience and break the principle of patience in investment?

Buffett said, "Sometimes you have to act quickly. Berkshire has made a lot of money because of its willingness to act quickly. You don't want to be patient on deals that make sense."

Buffett said, "When a good opportunity comes, you should not be patient at that time. You should be patient to wait for those occasional opportunities. But you should not hesitate for those reasonable transactions. You should not be patient to listen to those empty talks that will never come true."

Q8: 投资中是否可以打破耐心原则(Can the Principle of Patience Be Broken in Investment)
有人问,在投资中是否有时候可以表现出不耐烦,打破耐心原则?

巴菲特表示,有时你必须迅速行动。伯克希尔正是因为愿意迅速出手而赚了很多钱。你不会想在那些有意义的交易上保持耐心。

巴菲特说,“当出现一个好的机会时,你不应该在那时表现出耐心。你应该有耐心去等待那些偶尔出现的机会。但对于那些合理的交易,你不应迟疑。对于那些永远不会实现的空谈,你也不应该耐着性子听。”


# Q9: 车险公司Geico(The Auto Insurance Company Geico)

22:13 The ninth question of the shareholders' meeting: Geico, the auto insurance company
Jain said that Geico did face a crisis, but we turned the crisis into an opportunity. When we first took over, there were two major problems: the first was that our rate structure was unreasonable, and the second was that we had systemic problems in actuarial and pricing mechanisms. Five or six years ago, these were all areas of concern for us.

Through rapid technical adjustments and process optimization, these problems have now been resolved. We have not only improved the pricing model, but also done a lot of work on risk matching and optimized the overall pricing system.

Today, Geico is able to price each person based on their overall risk level, and we do a great job of doing this, which has translated into significant profits.

Although we have achieved a lot, I don't think the mission is complete. We still have a lot of technology to leverage, such as new tools such as AI. Our goal is not to "catch up with others" but to "do better."

Buffett said, this is a very interesting case study, especially about how a company responds to changes in the rules of the game in the industry. Every business has its own challenges and opportunities.

Berkshire bought Geico for $50 million in the 1970s, when it was only a partial stake. Later, Geico brought us huge profits. Now we own 100% of the company, and the profit in just one quarter can reach $2 billion. But this is the result of decades of continuous investment and improvement.

100 years ago, auto insurance was almost non-existent; but now, auto insurance has become one of the largest insurance types, except for property and casualty insurance. Geico is very profitable and has $29 billion in cash on hand. I bought the company for $50 million, which was a very cost-effective investment.

Geico was founded in 1936 by a government employee who was originally an employee of USAA. He made a profit in the first year, and even more in the second year. After that, the company grew and successfully went public. The auto insurance industry began to take off.

No one likes to buy insurance, but everyone likes to drive, which makes car insurance a necessity. Geico's development story is very interesting. It once tripled in a few years. Although it went astray, it finally got back on track. We talk about Geico's related issues at the annual meeting almost every year.

Buffett specifically mentioned Geico CEO Todd Combs. He said Combs did an excellent job in this transformation. He successfully turned the subsidiary around. Telematics, which was once seen as a disadvantage, is no longer a competitive disadvantage. Combs also significantly streamlined the company's staff structure, cutting thousands of jobs, which played an important role in improving efficiency.

Q9: 车险公司Geico(The Auto Insurance Company Geico)
贾因说,Geico确实曾面临危机,但我们把危机转化为了转机。最初接手的时候,有两个最主要的问题:第一是我们的费率结构不合理,第二是我们在精算和定价机制上的系统性问题。五六年前,这些都是我们感到担忧的地方。

通过迅速的技术调整和流程优化,现在这些问题已经解决了。我们不仅改进了定价模型,还在风险匹配上做了大量工作,并且对整体价格体系做了优化。

今天的Geico,已经能够根据综合风险水平来为每个人定价,我们在这个方面做得非常出色,也转化成了可观的利润。

虽然我们取得了很多成就,但我不认为任务已经完成。我们还有很多可以利用的技术,比如AI等新工具。我们的目标不是“赶上别人”,而是“做得更好”。

巴菲特说,这是一个非常有意思的案例研究,特别是关于一家企业如何应对行业游戏规则变化的问题。每一项业务都有它自己的挑战和机会。

伯克希尔1970年代花5000万美元买下Geico,当时只是部分持股。后来Geico为我们带来了巨大的收益,现在我们已经100%拥有这家公司,仅一个季度的利润就可以达到20亿美元。但这是几十年持续投入和改进的结果。

100年前,汽车保险几乎不存在;但现在,除了财产和意外伤害险,汽车保险已经成为最大的险种之一。Geico的利润非常可观,手上有高达290亿美元的流动现金。当年我用5000万买下这家公司,是非常划算的投资。

Geico创立于1936年,最初是由一位政府职员所创,他原来是USAA的员工。他在第一年就盈利,第二年赚得更多,之后公司发展壮大并成功上市。汽车保险行业由此开始兴起。

没有人喜欢买保险,但大家都喜欢开车,这使得汽车保险变成了刚需。Geico的发展故事非常有趣,曾一度在几年内成长三倍,虽然后来一度走偏,但最终又回到了正轨。我们几乎每年都会在年会上谈到Geico的相关问题。

巴菲特特别提到了Geico的CEO Todd Combs。他说,Combs 在这次转型中做得非常出色。他成功扭转了这家子公司的局势。曾经被视为劣势的“远程信息处理系统”(telematics)现在不再是竞争劣势。Combs 还大幅精简了公司的人员结构,裁减了数千个岗位,这对于提升效率发挥了重要作用。


# Q10: 阿贝尔为何是合适的接班人(Why Abel Is a Suitable Successor)

22:22: The tenth question of the shareholders' meeting: Why do you think Abel is a suitable successor?
Buffett didn't answer the question directly, saying it's important to surround yourself with great people you enjoy working with.

Buffett gave advice on choosing a job and starting a career. He said you need to "do what you love." Buffett warned that employees' habits may affect their colleagues, so it is crucial to carefully choose where to work.

Buffett advises that while you should be "careful" in choosing your employer, don't get hung up on factors like starting salary. "If you can find great colleagues there, go there."

Abel said he was honored to be involved in Berkshire's work.

Q10: 为何认为阿贝尔是合适的接班人(Why Do You Think Abel Is a Suitable Successor)
巴菲特并没有直接回答这个问题。他表示,重要的是要与自己乐于共事的优秀人才为伍。

巴菲特给出了关于选择工作和开启职业生涯的建议。他说,需要“做你喜欢的事”。巴菲特提醒,员工的习惯可能会影响同事,因此谨慎选择工作地点至关重要。

巴菲特建议,虽然你应该“谨慎”选择雇主,但不必太过纠结起薪之类的因素。“如果你能在那里找到优秀的同事,那就去那里。”

阿贝尔表示,他很荣幸能参与伯克希尔的工作。


# Q11: 美元贬值与货币风险(U.S. Dollar Depreciation and Currency Risks)

22:31: Shareholders' Meeting Question 11: U.S. dollar depreciation and currency risks
Someone asked about the weakening of the U.S. dollar and currency risk. In response to a question about how to reduce exposure to the risk of a depreciating U.S. dollar, Buffett said his company would not invest in "worthless" currencies. "We don't want to own any currency that we think is going to go down in value."

Buffett also mentioned that his holdings in the Japanese yen have increased. He did not rule out the possibility of exploring and paying attention to other currencies in the future.

Buffett also emphasized the complexity of currency games and pointed out that one of the responsibilities of the government is to devalue its own currency.

Buffett said he would not take any action based on quarterly or annual earnings to manage currency risk. It is very difficult to build an effective check and balance mechanism in the monetary value system.

In addition, Buffett said: "U.S. fiscal policy scares me because the way it is formulated and all the motivations are to do a lot of things that could get you in trouble with money. But this is not limited to the United States, but the whole world."

“I mentioned briefly in my annual report that fiscal policy is what I worry about most in the United States because of the way it’s set.”

“All the dynamics are there to drive behavior that can and does cause trouble on currency issues,” he said. “But this is not limited to the U.S., this is true in many parts of the world. And in some places, this often gets out of control.”

Buffett said, "We wouldn't really invest in a currency that's about to 'collapse,'” adding that the value of a currency can be "horrible" when governments act irresponsibly.

“Charlie always felt that if he had to pick an investment area other than stocks, he felt he could make a lot of money in the foreign exchange market,” Buffett said of his late vice chairman, Charlie Munger.

Buffett said: "We have tried it once. We can't say we won't do it again, but it's unlikely. Unless something happens in the U.S. that makes us willing to hold a large amount of other countries' currencies."

Q11: 美元贬值与货币风险(U.S. Dollar Depreciation and Currency Risks)
有人问道,关于美元走弱和货币风险。在回答有关如何减少对美元贬值风险的敞口时,巴菲特表示,他的公司不会投资于“一文不值”的货币。“我们不想持有任何我们认为会贬值的货币。”

巴菲特还提到他对日元的持仓有所增加。他并未排除未来探索和关注其他货币的可能性。

巴菲特也强调了货币博弈的复杂性,并指出政府的一项职责就是让本国货币贬值。

他表示,他不会专门基于季度或年度业绩采取措施管理货币风险。在货币价值体系中建立有效的制衡机制非常困难。

此外,他说:“美国的财政政策让我感到害怕,因为它的制定方式和所有动机都是为了做很多可能会惹麻烦的事情。但这不仅限于美国,而是全世界。”

“我在年度报告中曾简要提到过,财政政策是我在美国最担心的问题,因为它就是这样设定的。”

“所有的动因都在推动一些可能会、也确实会在货币问题上造成麻烦的行为。”他说道,“但这并不仅限于美国,在全球许多地方都存在这种情况。而在某些地区,这种趋势常常会失控。”

巴菲特说:“我们不会真的投资一种即将‘崩盘’的货币。”并补充道,当政府采取不负责任的行动时,货币的价值可能会“令人恐惧”。

巴菲特在谈到已故副董事长查理·芒格时表示:“查理一直认为,如果他必须选择一个股票以外的投资领域,他觉得他可以在外汇市场大赚一笔。”

巴菲特说:“我们尝试过一次。不能说我们不会再做,但可能性不大。除非美国发生某些事情,让我们愿意持有大量其他国家的货币。”

# Q12: 蒙古(Mongolia)

22:41 Shareholders' Meeting Question 12: Mongolia
The questioner said that Mongolia is an emerging market located between China and Russia. We have animal husbandry and mining, and the economy is still growing. We held a Mongolian investor conference in New York last year, which attracted many interested investors. What does Buffett think of emerging markets like Mongolia? Do you have a long-term investment plan?

Buffett said, I remember that about 20 years ago, I attended an annual meeting. At that time, I began to pay attention to Mongolia and heard introductions about Mongolia, so I still have some understanding of the situation in Mongolia - that was a long time ago.

We will listen to some reports from the government and evaluate which business opportunities can be developed, but we will not easily invest overseas unless I think it is an opportunity with great potential.

Many people think that to make money, you have to go to places with high inflation, where you can make a lot of money, but I don't think so. At present, our company has no short-term investment plans in Mongolia, unless it is a project that is very attractive in terms of scale.

Maybe 20 years ago we would have considered going over to take a look. But I don't know much about your economy, such as livestock, mining, etc. This is my view now.

Q12: 蒙古(Mongolia)
提问者称,蒙古是一个新兴市场,地处中国和俄罗斯之间。我们有畜牧业和矿业,经济仍在持续成长。我们去年在纽约举办了一场蒙古投资人大会,吸引了许多有兴趣的投资者。像蒙古这样的新兴市场,巴菲特怎么看?是否有长期投资计划?

巴菲特说,我记得大概二十年前,我曾经参加过一次年会,那时就开始关注蒙古,也听到过关于蒙古的介绍,所以我对蒙古的情况还是有一些了解的——那是很久以前的事了。

现在我们会听一些来自政府的报告,也会评估哪些是真正能开发的业务机会。但我们不会轻易在海外投资,除非我认为那是一个真正具备巨大潜力的机会。

很多人认为要赚钱就得去通胀高涨的地方,那样能挣很多钱,但我并不这么看。目前我们公司在蒙古没有任何短期的投资计划,除非是那种在规模上非常有吸引力的项目。

也许二十年前我们会考虑过去看一看。但关于你们的经济,比如牲畜业、矿业等,我了解得并不多。这就是我现在的看法。


# Q13: 私募公司竞争保险业(Private Equity Firms Competing in the Insurance Industry)

22:45 Shareholders' Meeting Question 13: Private equity firms competing in the insurance industry
Someone asked, what do you think about the expansion of private equity firms such as Blackstone, Apollo and KKR in the insurance field, which are more aggressive?

Jain acknowledged that competition from private equity has made Berkshire's investments in insurance businesses more difficult. "There's no doubt that private equity has moved into this space and we've lost our competitive edge in this space. We used to be very involved in this space, but in the last three or four years, I don't think we've done a single deal."

However, Jain said that private equity adopts a model of higher leverage and more aggressive investment strategies. When the economy is doing well, private equity firms take certain risks in terms of leverage and credit risk, especially in the life insurance sector. "As long as the economy is good and credit spreads are low, they will make a lot of money."

However, there is always a risk that at some point the regulators may get upset and say that you are taking too much risk on behalf of your policyholders, which could end in tragedy, Jain said. “We did not like the risk-reward ratio in these scenarios, so we chose to raise the white flag and decided not to compete with private equity firms in the life insurance space.”

Buffett said that many companies want to imitate Berkshire's model, but their CEOs will not invest all their assets in the company like we do.

Buffett added that what differentiates Berkshire from its competitors is that he takes greater personal responsibility for his investments. He said:

“They may have a slightly different sense of fiduciary responsibility for what they do, and sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t, and if it doesn’t work they move on to something else. But if what we do at Berkshire doesn’t work, I’ll spend the rest of my life regretting what I created, so it’s a completely different personal relationship. There’s no company in the property and casualty world that can really replicate the Berkshire model.”

Q13: 私募公司竞争保险业(Private Equity Firms Competing in the Insurance Industry)
有人问道,黑石、阿波罗和KKR私募公司等在保险领域扩张,这类企业更激进,怎么看?

贾因承认,来自私募股权的竞争使伯克希尔在保险业务上的投资变得更加困难。“毫无疑问,私募股权公司已经进入这个领域,我们在这个领域已经失去了竞争力。我们过去在这一领域参与颇多,但在过去三四年中,我认为我们一笔交易都没有做成。”

不过贾因表示,私募股权采用更高杠杆和更激进投资策略的模式。在经济表现良好时,私募股权公司在杠杆和信用风险方面承担着一定的风险,尤其是在寿险领域。“只要经济良好、信用利差较低,他们就会赚很多钱。”

贾因说,然而,始终存在这样一种风险:某个时刻,监管机构可能会不满,并表示你们代表保单持有人承担的风险太大,这可能最终以悲剧收场。“我们不喜欢这些情境下的风险与回报比,因此我们选择举起白旗,决定不再与私募公司在寿险领域竞争。”

巴菲特表示,许多公司想模仿伯克希尔的模式,但他们的CEO并不会像我们一样将全部资产投入到公司中。

巴菲特补充道,伯克希尔与其竞争对手的不同之处在于他本人对投资承担更大的个人责任。他说:

“他们对自己所做事情的信托责任感可能有些不同,有时行得通,有时不行,不行的话他们就转向其他事情。但如果我们在伯克希尔做的事情行不通,我将用余生为我所创造的一切感到懊悔,所以这是一种完全不同的个人关系。在财产与意外险领域,没有哪家公司可以真正复制伯克希尔的模式。”


# Q14: 年轻人投资(Young People's Investment)

22:50: Question 14 of the shareholders' meeting: Investment by young people
The questioner was a young girl. She said she had just started learning about investing and wanted to hear Buffett's opinion on what lessons he had learned in the early days of investing.

Buffett said, "That's a very good question. I really wish someone would have given me this advice when I was young."

It's all about the kind of people you surround yourself with. Don't expect every decision you make to be right. If you have a direction in life, then make sure you make friends with people you respect and aspire to be like.

I just mentioned a few people I've worked with in the past. Maybe they didn't do things on the same scale as I did, but they were people I liked very much and it meant a lot to me to be with them. It's invaluable to walk the path of life with like-minded people. Unfortunately, these truths are often not truly appreciated until later in life. When you are older, you will understand that these are the things that really matter.

Buffett mentioned two former Berkshire directors, Tom Murphy and Walter Scott. He said that if you have people like Tom Murphy and Walter Scott around you, your life will definitely be better. But this does not mean that you should follow the rich and copy their lifestyle. I would suggest that you get close to those who are really smart and wise, learn from them, ask them for advice, and try with them.

If you are looking for a meaningful job and you are not in a hurry to make money, then I suggest you spend time with outstanding people like Charlie Munger. Find such opportunities and share their success; if you can't find them, it doesn't matter, just keep doing what you are doing and keep working hard. Persevere, and you will eventually find people who live and think seriously like you.

Buffett recalled, "When I first went to Geico, the door was locked, and I didn't know who was behind it. Ten minutes later, I saw the man who later had a great influence on my life. When you meet such people, remember their help to you, and also think about how to repay them and help them in the future. Never forget these noble people."

Of course, sometimes you may find yourself in less than ideal circumstances. But if you are really lucky and live in a good environment and are surrounded by great people, cherish it. You don't need to feel guilty about being lucky. There are 8 billion people in the world and only about 300 million in the United States. If you live here, you are already ahead of the game and you should take advantage of it.

If someone at work asks you to do something you don't want to do, don't be with them. Different industries have different selection criteria for people, but if you find a direction that makes your heart beat, work hard at it, especially if it is a career you want to do for a lifetime.

The investment industry is very interesting. Many people don't want to continue doing it after making their first pot of gold. But I am personally lucky that I saw its long-term charm from the beginning.

Like Tom Murphy, who lived to be 98, he had an ability to see potential in people. We haven't met another person who can spot talent as keenly as he does. If you want to be a better person, make an effort to find people like him and work with them.

There are many successful people in the world, but not everyone can make the right choices. The fastest way to success is to find the truly outstanding people and walk with them.

The Berkshire experience is also very valuable to me. Sandy Gottesman has been managing our assets since 1963 until his death a few years ago, as well as Walter Scott and Abel, they all embody what long-term success is. You can learn a lot of really valuable things from them.

That's the advice I can give you. Some people live longer, maybe because they are surrounded by good people, or maybe because they drink Coke every day (laughs). But I believe that happy and joyful people live longer because they are always doing what they really love.

Q14: 年轻人投资(Investment by Young People)
提问者是一个年轻女孩。她说自己刚开始学习投资,想听听巴菲特的看法。他在投资初期学到了哪些教训。

巴菲特说,这是一个非常好的问题。我真希望在我年轻的时候,有人能给我这样的建议。

这件事和你身边是什么样的人息息相关。不要期待你做的每一个决定都是正确的。如果你的人生有一个方向,那你就要努力让那些你尊敬、渴望成为的人成为你的朋友。

我刚刚提到了几位过去跟我合作、共事的人,也许他们做的事情规模比不上我,但他们是我非常喜欢的人,和他们相处对我来说意义重大。和志同道合的人一起走人生的路,这是非常宝贵的。可惜,这些道理往往要到人生后期你才真正体会得到。等你年纪大了,就会明白这些才是真正重要的事。

巴菲特提到两位伯克希尔的前董事Tom Murphy和Walter Scott。他说,如果你身边有像Tom Murphy和Walter Scott这样的人,你的人生一定会更好。但这并不是说你要去追随有钱人、复制他们的生活模式。我会建议你去接近那些真正聪明、有智慧的人,向他们学习,向他们请教,和他们一起尝试。

如果你正在寻找一份有意义的工作,而你并不是急着挣钱,那我建议你像查理·芒格那样,花时间和优秀的人相处。找到这样的机会,分享他们的成功;如果找不到,也没关系,你就继续做你正在做的事,继续努力。坚持下去,你终究会找到那些和你一样认真生活、认真思考的人。

巴菲特回忆说:“我第一次去Geico的时候,门是锁着的,我也不知道门后面是谁。十分钟之后,我见到了那个人,他后来对我的人生产生了极大的影响。当你遇到这样的人时,要记得他们的帮助,也要想着将来能回报他们,帮助他们。千万不要忘记这些贵人。”

当然,有时候你也可能会遇到一些不太理想的情形。但如果你真的很幸运,生活在一个好的环境里,周围都是很棒的人,那就要好好珍惜。你不需要因为幸运而感到内疚。全世界有80亿人,美国只有3亿多人。如果你生活在这里,那你已经在这个游戏中处于领先位置了,你应该好好利用这一点。

如果在工作中,有人让你去做一些你根本不想做的事,那就不要和他们在一起。不同行业对人的选择标准不一样,但如果你找到了让你心动的方向,那就努力去做,尤其是如果那是一份你想终身从事的事业。

投资行业非常有趣。很多人在赚到第一桶金之后就不愿意再继续做了。但我个人很幸运,从一开始我就看到了它的长期魅力。

像 Tom Murphy,他活到了98岁,他有一种发现他人潜力的能力。我们还没遇到过另一个人像他那样敏锐地识别人才。如果你想成为一个更好的人,那就要努力去找到像他这样的人,和他们一起工作。

世界上有很多成功的人,但不是每个人都能做出正确的选择。而最快的成功路径,就是找到那种真正优秀的人,并与之同行。

伯克希尔的经验对我来说也是非常宝贵的。Sandy Gottesman从1963年起就一直在为我们管理资产,直到他几年前去世。还有 Walter Scott 和 阿贝尔,他们都体现了什么叫做长期的成功。你可以从他们身上学到很多真正有价值的东西。

这就是我能给你的建议。有些人活得久,可能是身边有好人,也可能是因为每天喝可乐(笑)。但我相信,幸福和快乐的人能活得更久,因为他们一直都在做自己真正热爱的事情。

# Q15: 最近的市场震荡是否提供了投资机会(Recent Market Shock and Investment Opportunities)

22:59 Shareholders' Meeting Question 15: Does the recent market shock provide investment opportunities?
Asked if recent market volatility offers an opportunity to make big investments, Buffett downplayed recent market volatility, calling it "really nothing" and part of investing. He shrugged off the stock market swings that have unnerved investors in the past few weeks.

“What happened in the last 30 days, 45 days, 100 days... really doesn’t matter,” Buffett said.

Buffett noted that Berkshire's stock price has fallen 50% less than three times in the past 60 years. During that time, the company did not have any fundamental problems.

Berkshire Hathaway's stock price has fallen 50% less than three times in the past 60 years, and he noted that during that period the company had no fundamental problems.

Given this, Buffett believes that the recent trend of U.S. stocks is "not a huge move" compared to periods such as the stock market crash in 1929. "This is not a dramatic bear market, nor is it a similar situation."

Buffett recalled that on his birthday in 1930, August 30, 1930, the Dow was at 240, and then fell to 41. Despite some "horrifying" events, the Dow closed above 41,300 on Friday.

To those who worry about the cyclical ups and downs of their portfolios, Buffett advises that they should change their investment philosophy to adapt to the world - rather than the world adapting to them.

Buffett said: "If it's important to you whether your stock goes down 15%, then you need to change your investment philosophy. The world is not going to adapt to you, you have to adapt to the world."

He added: "Everyone has emotions. But you have to control your emotions when investing."

Q15: 最近的市场震荡是否提供了投资机会(Recent Market Shock and Investment Opportunities)
被问及最近的市场波动是否提供了大手笔投资的机会,巴菲特淡化近期市场波动,称“其实没什么”(really nothing),这是投资的一部分。他对过去几周令投资者感到不安的股市波动不以为然。

巴菲特说:“过去30天、45天、100天内发生的事情……真的不算什么。”

巴菲特指出,在过去60年里,伯克希尔公司股价下跌50%的情况不到三次。在此期间,公司并不存在任何基本面问题。

过去60年里,伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股价下跌50%的情况不到三次。他指出,在此期间,公司并不存在任何基本面问题。

鉴于此,相比1929年的股市崩盘等时期,巴菲特认为,美股近期的走势“不是什么重大波动(not a huge move)”,“这还不算是一场剧烈的熊市(dramatic bear market),也不是类似的情况。”

巴菲特回忆,在他1930年生日那天,即1930年8月30日,道指是240点,之后一度跌至41点。尽管曾经经历一些“令人毛骨悚然”的事件,道指本周五收盘仍突破了41300点。

对于那些担心自己投资组合周期性涨跌的人,巴菲特建议:他们应该改变自己的投资理念,去适应世界——而不是世界去适应他们。

巴菲特说:“对你来说,如果自己的股票是否下跌15%很重要,那么你需要改变投资理念。世界不会适应你,你必须适应世界。”

他补充道:“人都有情绪。但你在投资时必须控制情绪。”


# Q16: 如何应对人生挫折(How to Deal with Setbacks in Life)

23:03 Shareholders' Meeting Question 16: How to deal with setbacks in life
A shareholder from Shanghai, China seeks advice on how to deal with setbacks in life.

“I focus on the good things that happen, not the bad things that happen,” Buffett said. “Life can be great — but it can also be terrible.”

Q16: 如何应对人生挫折(How to Deal with Setbacks in Life)
一位来自中国上海的股东寻求如何应对人生挫折的建议。

巴菲特说,“我会专注于那些美好的事情,而不是糟糕的事情。人生往往可以很精彩——但也可能遭遇糟糕的挫折。”


# Q17: 自动驾驶的影响(Autonomous Driving and Its Impact)

23:09 Shareholders' Meeting Question 17: Autonomous Driving
Someone asked, autonomous driving has not yet been fully popularized in the United States. If it really comes into being in the future, how will Geico's insurance business be affected? How do you view the division of responsibilities, software issues, and broader changes brought about by autonomous driving?

Jain, who is in charge of insurance business, replied that from the perspective of insurance, autonomous driving will not bring about immediate fundamental changes. Currently, most car insurance premiums are priced based on the frequency of driver errors, and our insurance policies and claims systems operate according to this risk calculation method.

Jain said that autonomous driving technology may indeed reduce the chance of accidents, and Geico and other insurance companies have similar views. But once this technology is truly popular, we will make corresponding adjustments.

Buffett said, this reminds me of what Charlie Munger once said to me. When we decided to enter the textile industry, we could not foresee the future transformation of the entire industry.

The world is always changing. Just like in baseball or golf, not every swing will result in a home run or a hole in one. Accept that you will make mistakes.

Today we are talking about whether auto insurance will be changed, which is a very important question. However, at present, autonomous driving has not yet been fully commercialized, and the United States has not yet promoted it on a large scale. No one can accurately predict what the insurance industry will look like in the next 100 years.

But one thing is clear: the world is dynamic. People like to drive cars, and we don't want to destroy the world. We have learned how to better protect the earth, although it is difficult. We know that there are 8 countries in the world that have a significant impact on the development of all mankind, and we hope that these countries can have the best leaders.

Einstein published his theory of special relativity in 1905, which led to the study of how energy can be transformed into powerful forces, and ultimately led to the threat of nuclear weapons. I was born in 1930 and have witnessed the consequences. Even Einstein could not have anticipated the way these inventions would eventually change the world.

We've also seen what's happening with North Korea. No one can really predict what they're going to do next. These uncertainties are not going away anytime soon.

Even so, change has brought many benefits, making our lives much better today than they were 100 years ago. But we still have to deal with real problems like weapons of mass destruction.

Just like car insurance now, we see rapid technological development, but to me, this change is not as big as the impact of the textile industry. Now should be one of the "luckiest" stages in human history. You should enjoy your life and pay attention to the changes in the insurance industry.

Insurance is an industry we do very well in. Although it has a lot of structural problems, we can't control everything. If you don't know how to swing, don't play golf.

There are indeed many clauses that need to be clarified regarding product liability and accidents caused by autonomous driving. Once an accident occurs, the cost of repair will increase significantly due to technological upgrades. Today's cars are becoming more and more like high-tech products, and these new technology-related issues have not yet been fully resolved.

For example, when I first went to Geico in 1950, the average annual premium was about $40, depending on which state you lived in. Now, $2,000 a year is the norm. At the same time, however, the number of traffic deaths has dropped dramatically. If you look at it from another perspective, it is actually much safer to drive now than it was before. It is difficult to predict the future trend of the entire industry. You have to look at it in combination with research, reality, and various data.

Changes in the energy industry, medical care, and political environment may also cause structural adjustments. In the business world, many problems do not have "answers," only "action points." Today's rules of the game are completely different from the past, so you must rethink how to run your industry every day when you wake up.

Some additional notes on Berkshire's first quarter earnings :

Our insurance sector's performance declined significantly in the first quarter of this year. Last year was very strong, but this year it has been under pressure due to falling prices and rising risks.

Some of our achievements cannot be copied, and we do not recommend that you copy others' models. We do have some advantages.

Our investment income has not changed much because we have not made many mistakes overall. We expect the total investment this year to be around $40 billion. Although the overall return will be lower, the negative impact will be less than in the past.

The railroad business has grown slightly this year compared to last year, and some problems are being improved. It is still a high-quality asset for Berkshire. The problems of the energy sector have been basically solved, and earnings have also rebounded this year. Other businesses require us to continue to work harder.

We have done a lot of calculations, some of which have increased, some have decreased, but overall they are not bad. Regarding cash flow, please be patient. Munger once told me: "As long as you are patient and willing to read financial reports and listen to politicians' speeches every day, you will find very good opportunities."

We still have plenty of cash, which will be available as long as the business we underwrite is profitable. We will be able to make important investments in the next 50 or 100 years. Of course, there will be difficult years, and then these cash reserves will be particularly important.

The current retention rate for life insurance is -2.2%. If you are not prepared for the future, you are likely to get into trouble. Running a business requires a different way of thinking.

We didn't make any acquisitions this year, and if you bought Berkshire stock, you got your fair share.

Buffett said Berkshire suspended its stock buyback program this year in part because of the Inflation Reduction Act , which was enacted about a year ago and imposed a 1% excise tax on stock buybacks . This hurt us more than other companies.

“It does make it a little less attractive than it was before,” Buffett said.

Buffett gave an example, saying that Apple, which performed well this year, spent $100 billion on buybacks. The taxes they paid for these buybacks were also huge. The price they bought back was even higher than the price you bought it at - this is good news.

Nowadays, people are looking for ways to increase their chances of success, but I want to emphasize: you must read carefully. Without in-depth reading, you cannot make wise decisions.

If there are major changes in the future, our company will still adhere to a conservative and prudent participation strategy. Although we have made some repurchases, the tax burden cannot be underestimated.

Q17: 自动驾驶(Autonomous Driving)
有人问,自动驾驶在美国尚未全面普及。如果未来真的落地,Geico的保险业务会受到什么影响?怎么看待自动驾驶带来的责任划分、软件问题,以及更广泛的变化?

负责保险业务的贾因回答,从保险角度来看,自动驾驶不会立刻带来本质上的改变。现在大多数汽车保险保费,都是基于驾驶员错误发生的频率来定价的,我们的保单与理赔系统正是依照这样的风险计算方式运作的。

贾因说,自动驾驶技术的确可能降低事故发生的几率,Geico与其他保险公司对此持类似观点。但一旦这项技术真正普及,我们也会做出相应的调整。

巴菲特说,这让我想起查理·芒格以前对我说过的话。当初我们决定进入纺织业时,并不能预见到整个行业未来的转变。

世界一直在变化。就像打棒球或高尔夫一样,并不是每一次挥棒都能打出全垒打,也不是每一杆都能一杆进洞。你要接受你会犯错的事实。

今天我们谈论汽车保险是否会被改变,这是一个非常重要的问题。但目前来看,自动驾驶还没有完全实现商业化,美国也尚未大规模推动。保险行业未来一百年会变成什么样,现在没有人能准确预测。

不过有一点很明确:这个世界是动态变化的。人们喜欢开车,我们不希望摧毁这个世界。我们学会了如何更好地保护地球,尽管这一路很艰难。我们知道全球有8个国家对全人类的发展有重大影响,我们希望这些国家能有最好的领导人。

爱因斯坦在1905年发表了狭义相对论,也推动了能量转化为强大力量的研究,最后却导致了我们不得不面对核武器所带来的威胁。我1930年出生后也见证了这些后果。即使是爱因斯坦当年也不可能预料这些发明最终会以何种方式改变世界。

我们也看到过朝鲜的发展。没有人能真正预测他们接下来会做什么。这些不确定性并不会很快消失。

即便如此,变革也带来了许多好处,让我们今天的生活比100年前好得多。但我们依然要面对像大规模杀伤性武器这样的现实问题。

就像现在的汽车保险,我们看到技术发展很快,但对我来说,这种变化还比不上纺织业当年的冲击大。现在应该是人类历史上“最幸运”的阶段之一,你应该去享受生活,同时关注保险行业发生的变化。

保险这个行业我们做得很好。虽然它存在不少结构性问题,但我们也不是每件事都能完全掌控。如果你不知道怎么挥杆,就别打高尔夫球。

关于自动驾驶引发的产品责任、意外事故,确实还有很多条款需要厘清。一旦发生事故,由于技术升级,维修成本会显著增加。现在的汽车已经越来越像高科技产品,而这些技术相关的新问题,还没有完全解决。

比如我1950年刚去Geico的时候,一年平均保费大约是40美元,当然要看你住在哪个州。但现在,一年2000美元是常态。不过与此同时,交通事故死亡人数却大幅下降。如果你换个角度来看,其实现在开车比以前安全多了。整个行业未来的走势很难预测。你必须结合研究、现实和各种数据来看待。

还有能源行业、医疗、政治环境的变化,都可能造成产业结构调整。在商业世界里,很多问题没有“答案”,只有“行动点”。今天的游戏规则和过去完全不同,因此你每天醒来都要重新思考如何经营你的行业。

关于伯克希尔第一季度财报的一些补充说明:

我们保险板块的表现今年第一季度下滑明显。去年非常强劲,而今年则因价格下滑、风险上升而承压。

我们有些成就是无法复制的,也不建议大家去复制别人的模式。我们确实有一些优势。

我们的投资收入变化不大,因为我们整体的错误不多。我们预计今年投资总额在400亿美元左右,虽然整体收益会低一些,但负面也比过去少。

铁路业务今年比去年略有增长,有些问题正在改善,对伯克希尔来说仍是优质资产。能源板块的问题基本解决,今年收益也回升。其他业务需要我们继续加把劲。

我们做了很多测算,有的增长、有的下降,总体还不错。关于现金流,也请大家保持耐心。芒格曾告诉我:“只要你有耐心,愿意每天坚持阅读财报、听听政界人士的讲话,就会找到非常优秀的机会。”

我们目前仍有充足现金,只要我们承保的业务能带来利润,这些现金就能派上用场。未来50年、100年,我们都有可能做出重要投资。当然,困难的年份也会到来,那时这些现金储备就显得尤为重要。

目前寿险部分的留存金是-2.2%。如果你没有准备好应对未来,那很可能会陷入麻烦。经营企业必须换一种思维方式来思考问题。

今年我们没有做任何收购。如果你买伯克希尔的股票,也会获得应得的部分。

巴菲特表示,伯克希尔今年暂停股票回购计划的部分原因是,大约一年前,《通胀削减法案》(the Inflation Reduction Act)出台,该法律对股票回购征收1%的消费税。这对我们来说比对其他公司伤害更大

巴菲特表示:“这确实让它(回购)的吸引力略低于以前。”

巴菲特举例称,像苹果这样,今年表现很好,花了1000亿美元做回购。他们为这些回购支付的税金也是巨大的。他们回购的价格甚至高于你买入时的价格——这是个好消息。

如今人们都在寻找提高成功几率的方法,但我想强调:你必须认真阅读。没有深入的阅读,是无法做出明智决策的。

如果未来出现重大变化,我们公司仍然会坚持保守审慎的参与策略。虽然我们进行了一些回购,但税负已经不容小觑。


# Q18: 阿贝尔希望被如何铭记(How Abel Would Like to Be Remembered)

Abel was asked by a shareholder how he would like to be remembered and he said his roles as a father and coach were very important to him.

Buffett quipped that he wanted people to remember him for his "advanced age," prompting laughter from the audience.

Q18: 阿贝尔希望被如何铭记(How Abel Would Like to Be Remembered)
一位股东问阿贝尔,他希望自己被人们如何记住。他表示,自己作为父亲和教练的角色对他来说非常重要。

巴菲特打趣说,他希望别人记住他的“高龄”,引来现场一阵笑声。


# Q19: 财报与资本配置(Berkshire's Capital Allocation After Abel Takes Over From Buffett)

Buffett explains why he believes the balance sheet is a good starting point for evaluating whether a company is worth investing in.

“I spend more time looking at balance sheets than I do income statements,” he said. “Wall Street doesn’t really pay much attention to balance sheets, but I like to look at eight to 10 years of a company’s balance sheet before I look at the income statement because some things are harder to hide or manipulate on a balance sheet.”

He added: “Neither of these, of course, can give you all the answers.”

0:13 Shareholders' Meeting Question 19: Berkshire's capital allocation after Abel takes over from Buffett
Someone asked, over the past decade, everyone has been paying attention to the investment strategies of Buffett and Charlie Munger. Now Abel will succeed Buffett as CEO, and more capital allocation decisions may be led by him in the future. How does he view this inheritance and how does he view the future?

Abel first mentioned that Berkshire has a very strong investment culture, which is the result of Mr. Buffett's long-term establishment. All of our colleagues uphold the same values.

Capital allocation is a core part of our business philosophy. When we make decisions, we not only discuss among the management, but more importantly, we have a clear sense of risk. These values are the key to the success of our company.

We always value Berkshire's reputation, which is our greatest wealth. Buffett once reminded everyone that when making any investment decision, the first thing is to look at the income statement and understand the real numbers.

Now we have a lot of cash, which is a huge advantage, but it also brings challenges - how to allocate these funds? This is not a simple question, but a profound philosophy. We have the ability to allocate at any time, but we pursue "better allocation".

We have always emphasized that Berkshire will not rely on others in any environment, and we will not rely on bank loans for capital operations. Whether it is insurance or non-insurance business, we must have sufficient cash flow to ensure that Berkshire can continue to operate.

We will continue to focus on high-quality opportunities in various industries, not just insurance. Our goal is to fully understand the vision of a company when investing, whether we buy 100% of a company or just hold a portion of it.

As Buffett mentioned before: We completed a $10 billion acquisition last quarter. Sometimes a full acquisition is appropriate, and sometimes buying only a portion of the equity can also work. The key is that whether we hold 1% or 100%, we must understand what kind of business this company wants to become in the next 5, 10, or 20 years.

We will continue to follow this philosophy. This is the core of Berkshire's success over the past 60 years, and we will not change it.

Buffett went on to say that it is important to emphasize that the United States is indeed facing some major transformation needs. Our American power grid and highway system have fallen behind the current population and economic growth rate.

To promote these changes, the US government must take stronger measures. There are 50 states in the United States, and each state has a different way of thinking. Just like after World War II, we mobilized the entire manufacturing industry to support the war in a very short period of time, and the efficiency was amazing at that time. But in peacetime, it is not easy to achieve the same efficiency.

Investment depends on the situation. We have knowledge and capital, but we also need to make strategic changes. How to play the role of Berkshire requires a plan that is meaningful to the country, the people and the company.

Abel may offer his views on these issues later. But one thing is clear: we need to be prepared with sufficient cash reserves to intervene at critical moments.

We have done many cooperative projects in the past. For example, the highway system in the United States was completed under the promotion of the federal government. If it were just one company, it would not be possible. Similar large projects in the future will also require close cooperation between the government and the private sector.

Abel said, "From the perspective of the energy industry, we do have a lot of areas where we can advance. The current electricity demand is growing rapidly, and to meet long-term energy demand, we must make necessary capital investments. We have strong capabilities in this area and are actively addressing related risks."

Only if we address these risks can we deploy the capabilities to meet future needs. And we must start preparing now.

Buffett agreed, and he went on to say that the power of the U.S. federal government must be used. Just like the construction of the highway system during World War II, it would not have been possible to complete it quickly without national coordination.

We do have the capital and sufficient knowledge to participate in it. But the desire to cooperate is not enough, we also need the ability to "concentrate our efforts on major tasks."

We were able to do this during World War II, but it is very difficult to promote similar national construction in peacetime. This task may eventually fall to the next generation.

Q19: 财报与资本配置(Berkshire’s Capital Allocation After Abel Takes Over From Buffett)
有人提问:在过去十年里,大家一直在关注巴菲特和查理·芒格的投资策略。如今阿贝尔即将接任CEO,未来更多的资本配置决策可能由他主导。他如何看待这种传承?又将如何看待未来?

阿贝尔首先提到,伯克希尔有着非常强的投资文化,这是巴菲特长期建立的结果。我们所有同事都秉持着相同的价值观。

资本配置是我们经营理念的核心之一。我们在做决策时,不仅管理层会进行讨论,更重要的是我们对风险有清晰的认知。这些价值观是公司成功的关键。

我们始终重视伯克希尔的声誉,这是我们最大的财富。巴菲特曾提醒大家,在做出任何投资决策时,第一件事就是要看利润表,了解真实的数字。

现在我们拥有大量现金,这是一大优势,但也带来了挑战——如何配置这些资金?这不是一个简单的问题,而是一种深层次的理念。我们随时都有能力进行配置,但我们追求的是“更好的配置”。

我们始终坚持一点:无论在何种环境下,伯克希尔都不会依赖他人,也不会依靠银行贷款来运作资本。无论是保险还是非保险业务,我们都必须保证充足的现金流,确保伯克希尔能够持续运营。

我们将继续专注于各行各业中的优质机会,不只是保险领域。我们的目标是在投资时充分理解一家公司的愿景,不论我们是持有100%股权,还是只是一小部分。

正如巴菲特之前所说:上季度我们完成了一笔100亿美元的收购。有时全资收购更合适,有时持有部分股权也能实现目标。关键是,不管我们持有多大的股份,都要清楚这家公司未来五年、十年或二十年想成为什么样的企业。

我们会继续坚持这一理念。这是伯克希尔过去六十年成功的内核,我们不会改变。

巴菲特补充道,有一点很重要:美国确实面临一些重大转型需求。我们的国家电网系统和公路体系已经落后于当前的人口增长和经济发展速度。

要推动这些转变,需要美国政府采取更强有力的措施。美国有50个州,每个州的想法都不一样。就像二战之后,我们曾在极短时间内动员整个制造业支持战争,当时的效率令人惊叹。但在和平时期,想要达到同样的效率并不容易。

投资要看具体情况。我们有知识也有资金,但还需要战略上的调整。如何发挥伯克希尔的作用,需要制定对国家、人民和公司都有意义的计划。

这些问题阿贝尔稍后可能会发表看法。但有一点可以确定:我们必须准备足够的现金储备,以便在关键时刻介入。

我们过去做过很多合作项目。例如,美国的高速公路系统就是在联邦政府推动下建成的。如果仅靠一家公司,是不可能做到的。未来类似的大型项目,也需要政府与私营部门紧密合作。

阿贝尔表示:“从能源行业的角度来看,我们确实有很多可以推进的空间。目前电力需求快速增长,为了满足未来的能源需求,我们必须做出必要的资本投入。我们在这方面具备很强的能力,并正在积极应对相关风险。”

只有先解决这些风险,我们才能把能力释放出来去满足未来的需求。而且,我们现在就必须开始准备。

巴菲特表示赞同,并进一步指出,必须动用美国联邦政府的力量。就像二战期间的公路系统建设,如果没有全国性的协调,是不可能快速完成的。

我们确实有足够的资金和充足的知识参与其中。但仅有合作意愿还不够,还必须具备“集中力量办大事”的能力。

我们在战时能做到这一点,但在和平时期推动类似的国家级建设却非常困难。这项任务可能最终会落到下一代人肩上。


# Q20: 一名14岁女孩的梦想(A 14-Year-Old Girl Wants to Join Berkshire)

0:26 Shareholders' Meeting Question 20: A 14-year-old girl wants to join Berkshire. How can she work hard?
A 14-year-old girl from Hong Kong said she hopes to join Berkshire in the future and asked what kind of job she could do. Abel said hard work and a desire to contribute will take you far. "We sincerely look forward to the day when you become a member of Berkshire."

Buffett added: "Be curious and read a lot."

Q20: 一名14岁女孩的梦想(A 14-Year-Old Girl Wants to Join Berkshire)
来自中国香港的一位14岁女孩表示,她希望将来能加入伯克希尔,并询问适合她的工作类型。阿贝尔表示,努力工作和愿意贡献会让你走得更远。“我们真诚期待你成为伯克希尔的一员。”

巴菲特补充道:“保持好奇,多读书。”


# Q21: 野火对公用事业的影响(Wildfires Affecting Utilities and Risk Strategies)

0:29 Shareholders' Meeting Question 21: Wildfires affect utilities, what are the strategies for protection?
"It's not going away," Abel said of the wildfire risk. "The company has decided that when a fire comes, sometimes you need to shut off the power to your equipment. It's not just about turning off the lights." Wildfires are happening in California and Texas. Where to invest is the first point of view.

“We can’t just be the insurer of last resort,” Abel said of Berkshire’s utilities’ responsibilities as wildfires spread. “We can’t be responsible for everything that happens.”

Buffett assured shareholders that Berkshire would not spend their money on things the company considered "stupid."

If they did, he added, shareholders "should kick us out."

"It's easier to do stupid things with other people's money than with your own. That's one of the problems with government in general. We don't want to bring that to the private sector," quipped Buffett.

Q21: 野火对公用事业的影响(Wildfires Affecting Utilities and Risk Strategies)
关于野火带来的风险,阿贝尔表示,“它不会消失。”公司决定在火灾发生时,有时必须关闭设备电源,不只是关灯这么简单。加州和德州都发生了野火事件,投资地点选择是第一个要考虑的问题。

阿贝尔表示:“伯克希尔不能只是最后的承保人,我们无法承担所有的责任。”

巴菲特向股东保证,伯克希尔不会把钱花在他们认为“愚蠢”的事情上。如果真的发生了,“你们股东应该把我们赶出去。”

他开玩笑说:“用别人的钱做事更容易犯傻,这是政府普遍存在的问题之一。我们不想让这种情况出现在私营领域。”


# Q22: 女粉丝的愿望(A Female Fan's Wish to Meet Buffett)

0:43 Shareholders' Meeting Question 22: Female fans hope Buffett will arrange a meeting in his office
The question came from a Polish lady. She said that 74 years ago in January 1951, Buffett took an 8-hour train to Washington, just to learn about insurance, and he has been on this path ever since. This is a very touching experience. In 2011, she was only 15 years old, but she also set a goal for herself: one day she must meet you. Today, she finally fulfilled this promise, and she wanted to ask Buffett to fulfill a small wish: Can you give her some time to stay in your office for an hour?

Buffett thanked her for the question and smiled, saying, "You don't need to announce my life story, but I appreciate your persistence and hard work. There are 40,000 people here today, and your question is indeed very special."

Buffett said, "When I was young, I often drove around the country to visit various companies. At that time, these companies usually didn't have investor relations departments, so many times the CEO personally received me. I was also worried that they might not pay attention to me, but I would prepare two very specific questions in advance."

This is not a bad idea. If you want to visit someone and talk for ten minutes, you should think clearly about what you want to say and what you want to ask. You set the conditions for these ten minutes, not the other person.

You'll find that most companies now have investor relations departments whose job is to tell you why you should buy their stock. It's a growing business. But you can learn and understand the world in your own way. Berkshire has its own approach too. We don't copy others.

Now we have enough information and talents, so we don't need to conduct interviews one by one like in the past. There are more than 40,000 people here today, and we really can't meet everyone's one-hour request. But I really appreciate your enthusiasm and persistence, and that's all I can say to you.

Q22: 女粉丝的愿望(A Female Fan Hopes Buffett Will Arrange a Meeting in His Office)
这个问题来自一位波兰女士。她说,74年前的1951年1月,巴菲特乘坐了八小时火车前往华盛顿,只为学习保险知识,从此走上了这条路。这是一段非常感人的经历。2011年,她只有15岁,也给自己定下了目标:一定要见到你。今天她终于实现了这个愿望,并向巴菲特提出一个小请求:能否安排一个小时的时间,在你的办公室待一会?

巴菲特感谢她的提问,并笑着说:“你不用把我的人生故事讲出来,但我很欣赏你的坚持和努力。今天现场有四万人,你的问题的确非常特别。”

他说:“我年轻时经常开车去各地拜访公司。那时候很多公司还没有投资者关系部门,很多时候都是CEO亲自接待我。我当时也很担心人家会不会重视我,所以每次都会提前准备两个非常具体的问题。”

这是一个不错的方法。如果你想去见某个人,哪怕只谈十分钟,你也应事先想清楚你要说什么、问什么。这十分钟的节奏应该由你自己掌握,而不是对方。

你会发现现在很多公司设有专门的投资者关系部门,他们的职责就是告诉你为什么要买这家公司的股票。这是一个不断发展的行业。但你可以用自己的方式去学习和理解世界。伯克希尔也有自己的方法,我们不复制别人的模式。

现在我们拥有的信息和人才都很丰富,不需要像以前那样逐一拜访。今天现场超过四万人,我们不可能满足每个人一小时的要求。但我真的很感激你的热情与坚持,这就是我能对你说的话。

# Q23: 收购伯克希尔能源业务剩余资产(Acquisition of the Remaining Assets of Berkshire's Own Energy Sector)

0:50 Shareholders' Meeting Question 23: Acquisition of the remaining assets of Berkshire's own energy sector
Regarding Berkshire's decision to acquire the remaining assets of its own energy division. Buffett is not optimistic about the utility industry, saying, "The utility business is not as good as it was a few years ago." He blamed this on social factors, saying that values change, and not always upward.

Buffett talked about investment opportunities in the U.S. energy sector and the role Berkshire can play. "The way to solve this problem is to have some kind of government-private partnership, like in wartime. I don't think the government sent people out to lay a lot of concrete or anything like that when they built the highway system."

He added: “We do have the capital, and we also have some knowledge that only very few places have.”

Q23: 收购伯克希尔能源业务剩余资产(Acquisition of the Remaining Assets of Berkshire’s Own Energy Sector)
关于伯克希尔决定收购自身能源部门的剩余资产。巴菲特对公用事业并不乐观,他表示:“公用事业已经不如几年前那样好了。”他将此归因于社会因素,认为价值观在变化,并且并非总是向上发展。

巴菲特谈到了美国能源领域的投资机会以及伯克希尔可以扮演的角色。“解决这个问题的方式是建立某种政府与私营企业的合作机制,就像战争时期一样。我认为当年建设公路系统时,政府并没有派人去铺混凝土之类的东西。”

他还表示:“我们确实拥有资金,也掌握着世界上极少数地方才有的专业知识。”


# Q24: 伯克希尔未来盈利展望(Berkshire's Future Earnings)

0:54 Shareholders' Meeting Question 24: Berkshire's future earnings
Someone asked Buffett what he expected the company's earnings to be in the most recent fiscal year, and whether future earnings would increase or decrease.

Buffett said, "I think our public utility revenue will be affected to a certain extent. Profits may not be entirely determined by mergers and acquisitions, but it is undeniable that we do make mergers and acquisitions from time to time. This year we spent $10 billion on investment."

A lot of these questions depend on the market environment and people's mood. Some people are more pessimistic. As someone born in the 1930s, I have experienced very difficult times. Sometimes you find certain opportunities particularly attractive, but you don't act and miss the opportunity. This has happened many times in my life.

Many times, I choose not to try something that I feel unsure of - for example, if you ask me to walk a tightrope, I won't do it. But when it comes to financial markets, there are some things that others are afraid of, but I am not afraid of them.

If Berkshire's stock price drops by half one day, it will be an opportunity for me. I know that many people's reaction is different from mine, but I will not worry. It's not that I don't have emotions, but the fluctuation of stock prices will not affect my rational judgment. It will not affect my assessment of value.

Overall, Berkshire's profitability will continue to grow over time. What we have to do is keep the money we earn and then make rational decisions. Everyone has different abilities and risk tolerances, and it is these differences that create opportunities in the investment market.

Q24: 伯克希尔未来盈利展望(Berkshire's Future Earnings)
有人问巴菲特,他对公司最近一个财年的收益预期如何?未来的盈利会增长还是下降?

他表示:“我认为我们的公共事业收入会受到一定程度的影响。利润不一定完全取决于并购行为,但我们的确会时不时进行并购。今年我们在投资上花了100亿美元。”

很多问题都取决于市场环境和人们的心理状态。有些人比较悲观。作为生于1930年代的人,我经历过非常困难的时期。有时候你会发现某些机会特别诱人,但你没有出手,结果错过了。这种情况在我的人生中发生过很多次。

很多时候,我会选择不去尝试那些我不确定的事情——比如你让我走钢丝,我就不会去做。但在金融市场上,有些别人害怕的事,我却并不害怕。

如果哪天伯克希尔的股价下跌一半,对我来说反而是个机会。我知道很多人的反应跟我不同,但我不会因此焦虑。不是说我没有情绪,但股价波动不会影响我的理性判断。它不会改变我对价值的评估。

总体来看,伯克希尔的盈利能力将在长期内持续增长。我们要做的就是把赚来的钱保留下来,再做出理性的决策。每个人的能力和风险承受力都不同,正是这些差异创造了投资市场的机遇。


# Q25: 科技巨头股票(Tech Giants' Stocks)

0:59 Shareholders' Meeting Question 25: Tech Giants' Stocks
Technology giants are currently investing heavily in capital expenditures and AI. Buffett said that technology giants have made a lot of money and have made a lot of investments. For example, Coca-Cola also has its own bottling company, and these investments are not actually very large. The initial investment of the company, such as the machinery required, is large, but it is less later.

Buffett said it will be interesting to watch how capital intensity of the Magnificent 7 companies grows in the future. “There are a lot of people in the United States who have become very wealthy by watching how other people invest.”

Q25: 科技巨头股票(Tech Giants’ Stocks)
科技巨头目前正大举投入资本支出和人工智能领域。巴菲特表示,科技公司赚了很多钱,也做了大量投资。例如可口可乐也有自己的装瓶公司,这些投资其实并不算很大。一家公司的初期投入,比如设备等成本很高,但后期就相对少了。

他说:“观察‘七巨头’公司未来资本密集度的变化是一件很有趣的事。在美国,有很多人通过观察他人投资方式而变得非常富有。”


# Q26: 高中课程是否有助于投资(High School Courses That Help with Investing)

1:09 Shareholders' Meeting Question 26: Are there any high school courses or activities that will help you invest in the future?
Buffett said that future school teachers can learn from their work.

Q26: 高中课程是否有助于投资(Are There High School Courses or Activities That Will Help You Invest in the Future)
巴菲特表示,未来的学校教师可以从他们的工作中学到东西。


# Q27: 关于DOGE的问题(Is DOGE Good or Bad for the United States in the Long Run)

1:17 Shareholders Meeting Question 27: Is DOGE good or bad for the United States in the long run?
When asked about the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Buffett smiled and said, "Why do you ask me such a difficult question? For me, the government bureaucracy has always been a confusing thing. In the capitalist market, many bureaucratic structures are 'contagious', that is, their inefficiency may spread to other areas. In fact, many systems have better management methods, and even Berkshire has room for streamlining and improving efficiency."

But the government is the government. It has no real "superior" to supervise it, which makes people feel uneasy about the future governance and financial situation. Especially when the elected people say one thing and do another, it is really worrying.

I have always believed that if a politician has money but no credit, that is a very negative signal to me. In terms of fiscal policy, the United States has not really solved the problem of fiscal deficit for a long time. This has never been a thoroughly resolved issue.

As for the United States, "the fiscal deficit situation we have now is not sustainable for a long time. We don’t know if that means two years or 20 years, because there has never been a country like the United States, and this situation cannot continue forever."

Sometimes you know something can't last, but you don't know how to stop it - you just throw up your hands and give up. It was (former Federal Reserve Chairman) Paul Volcker who saved the US from the worst inflationary collapse. Now, the US has a serious inflation problem, and we have experienced the consequences of such policies.

Buffett did not talk about DOGE directly, but he admitted that reducing the budget deficit is a difficult but important task.

To be honest, I would not want to be in charge of fixing the fiscal system and balancing the books—“That’s not the job you want to do, but that’s the job you should do.” It just seems like Congress is not taking up the issue right now.

We are a great country with the most innovative people in the world, but we do have a lot of structural problems. If something goes wrong, these problems will not explode immediately, but they will definitely ferment slowly.

There are of course incentives and checks and balances in governance, just as in a company, even the most successful companies are not without problems.

Buffett once again mentioned the risk of a depreciating dollar. He said:

“However, the basis of all of this is to have a currency that cannot depreciate. If everyone who trusts the government is being deceived, and everyone who finds ways to profit from it gets richer, what does depreciation do to the stability of society? I don’t think you want a society that operates that way.”

Q27: 关于DOGE的问题(Is DOGE Good or Bad for the United States in the Long Run)
当被问及“政府效率部”(DOGE)相关问题时,巴菲特笑着说:“你怎么问我这么难的问题?对我来说,官僚主义一直是个令人困惑的问题。在资本市场中,许多官僚结构具有传染性,也就是说它们的低效可能蔓延到其他领域。事实上,许多制度有更好的管理方式,就连伯克希尔也有改进效率的空间。”

但政府就是政府。它没有真正的上级来监督,这让人对未来的治理和财政状况感到担忧。特别是当选官员说一套做一套时,更令人不安。

我一直相信,如果一位政治家有钱却没有信用,那对我而言就是一个非常负面的信号。在财政政策方面,美国长期以来都没有真正解决财政赤字的问题。这从未被彻底解决过。

至于美国,“我们现在面临的财政赤字局面不可能长期维持下去。我们不知道这意味着两年还是二十年,因为从来没有像美国这样的国家,这种状况也不可能永远持续下去。”

有时你知道某些事情不可持续,但却不知道如何阻止它,只能束手旁观。当年拯救美国免于最严重通胀崩溃的是前美联储主席保罗·沃尔克。如今,美国又面临严重的通胀问题,并正在经历其后果。

巴菲特没有直接谈论 DOGE,但他承认减少财政赤字是一项艰难但重要的任务。

老实说,我并不想负责修复财政体系和平衡收支这项工作——“这不是你想做的事,但却是你应该做的事。”只是国会似乎现在并没有认真处理这个议题。

我们是一个伟大的国家,拥有世界上最富创造力的人才,但我们确实存在很多结构性问题。一旦出错,这些问题不会立刻爆发,但一定会慢慢发酵。

当然,治理中也有激励机制和制衡机制,就像企业一样,即使最成功的企业也不是没有问题。

巴菲特再次提到了美元贬值的风险。他说:

“然而,这一切的基础必须是一种不会贬值的货币。如果每一个信任政府的人都被欺骗,而每一个设法从中获利的人都变得更富有了,那么货币贬值对社会稳定意味着什么?我认为你不希望看到社会以这种方式运作。”


# Q28: 回到1776年,如何为美国奠定资本主义基础(If We Travel Back to 1776, How Can We Create the Foundation of Capitalism for the United States and Support Its Long-Term Prosperity)

1:23 Shareholders' Meeting Question 28: If we travel back to 1776, how can we create the foundation of capitalism for the United States and support its long-term prosperity?
"When people are most pessimistic, we will make the best deals," Buffett said. He said Berkshire will continue to increase its profitability, but the growth will not be linear. Buffett defended Berkshire's long-term decision not to use other people's capital to make transactions.

Buffett called the United States a shining example of capitalism and compared the system to a cathedral with a casino attached. "American capitalism has been unprecedentedly successful," he said. "It's the combination of a great cathedral that has created an economic system that the world has never seen, and a huge casino attached to it. The temptation is great, especially now, to walk into that casino."

"In that cathedral, people were essentially designing systems that could produce goods and services for more than 300 million people, a scale unprecedented in history."

While it is tempting to invest all your time and energy into this metaphorical casino, Buffett cautions that it is important to maintain a balance. "In the casino, people have a lot of fun and money flows a lot, but you also have to make sure that the cathedral is fed. In the next 100 years, America has to make sure that the cathedral is not swallowed up by the casino."

He added: “We’ve built an interesting system, but it works. Capitalism seems to be very arbitrary and capricious in how it distributes rewards.”

Q28: 回到1776年,如何为美国奠定资本主义基础(If We Travel Back to 1776, How Can We Create the Foundation of Capitalism for the United States and Support Its Long-Term Prosperity)
“当人们最悲观的时候,我们反而能达成最好的交易。” 巴菲特说道。他表示伯克希尔的盈利能力将持续提升,但增长不是线性的。巴菲特为自己长期以来拒绝利用他人资金进行操作的做法进行了辩护。

他称美国是资本主义的一个光辉典范,并将这套制度比作一座附带赌场的大教堂。“美国的资本主义取得了空前的成功,”他说,“它是由一座宏伟的大教堂和一个巨大的赌场组成的结合体。诱惑巨大,尤其在今天,很多人更愿意走进赌场。”

“在这座大教堂里,人们本质上是在设计能够为三亿多人提供商品和服务的制度,这是历史上前所未有的规模。”

虽然将全部时间精力投入到那个比喻中的“赌场”看似诱人的事,但巴菲特提醒说,保持平衡非常重要。“在赌场里,大家玩得很开心,资金流动很快,但你也得确保大教堂仍在运转。在未来一百年里,美国必须确保大教堂不会被赌场吞噬。”

他补充道:“我们构建了一套有趣的制度,但它确实有效。资本主义在分配财富上的方式看起来非常随意、反复无常。”


# Q29: 子公司运营模式(Berkshire's Model for Operating Subsidiaries)

1:31 p.m. Shareholders Meeting Question 29: Berkshire's model for operating subsidiaries
Berkshire adopts a "hands-off" management approach to the operations of its subsidiaries. Someone asked if Berkshire could talk more specifically about how it works.

Abel said that since 2018, I have begun to learn more about Berkshire's various businesses. Buffett's knowledge is very admirable, and he is very willing to share: he will point out the possible risks in the business model, and we will communicate with him in time once we encounter problems.

He and I usually discuss framework issues, such as how to view the trend of an industry, whether a strategy is reasonable, etc. However, in daily operations, we have a lot of autonomy and can make decisions and advance projects independently.

If an opportunity suddenly appears in a certain industry, or we intend to pursue a new direction, we will discuss with Buffett whether it is worth doing. But at the execution level, we have a high degree of freedom. The managers selected by Berkshire are very familiar with the operation of their own industries, such as the leaders of Geico. Especially in the past few years when the insurance industry has undergone changes, a visionary leader is very critical. We benefit from past experience.

Buffett smiled and said, "I have worked with Abel for many years. He is very serious about his work. Sometimes I wish I could be more relaxed like an artist and not work so hard. But to be honest, if a business is doing well, you don't have to worry about being fired."

Abel did a great job. Not everyone is cut out to be a manager. Some people want to be told what to do; some people will quit if you give them an order, and I don't blame them. But Abel is different. He has autonomy and is willing to accept suggestions or assistance from others. He is a true leader.

At Berkshire, we don’t expect every manager to do things the same way. Some are highly admirable, and some may not be. But the quality of an organization’s management can be seen—if the atmosphere of the organization begins to decline, it means that the leadership may also need to make improvements.

For example, in one of our retail stores, an employee once told a friend, "Come and buy something and I'll give you a discount." Although they were just well-intentioned, they violated the company's employee discount rules. This behavior is "contagious."

We don't want to see upper management taking the lead in changing the rules for personal gain. Once this is done, the entire organization may go in the wrong direction.

Q29: 子公司运营模式(Berkshire’s Model for Operating Subsidiaries)
伯克希尔在子公司的运营上采用“放手不管”的管理方式。有人问能否更具体地谈一谈这套机制是如何运作的。

阿贝尔表示:“自2018年起,我开始更多地了解伯克希尔旗下各项业务。巴菲特的知识非常令人敬佩,他也很愿意分享:他会指出商业模式中可能存在的风险,一旦我们遇到问题,也会及时与他沟通。”

他说,他和巴菲特通常讨论的是框架性问题,例如如何看待一个行业的趋势、某个战略是否合理等。但在日常运营方面,他们拥有高度自主权,可以独立决策并推进项目。

如果某个行业突然出现机会,或我们打算探索新方向,我们会与巴菲特讨论是否值得做。但在执行层面,我们有很高的自由度。伯克希尔挑选的管理者都非常熟悉各自行业的运行规律,比如Geico的领导人。尤其是在保险行业发生变革的这几年,一位有远见的领导者至关重要。我们也从过去的经验中受益匪浅。

巴菲特笑着说:“我和阿贝尔共事了很多年,他对工作非常认真。有时候我也希望自己能像艺术家那样轻松一点,不用这么拼命。但说实话,只要企业经营得好,你就不用担心被炒鱿鱼。”

阿贝尔做得非常出色。并不是每个人都适合当管理者。有些人希望别人告诉他该做什么;有些人你一下指令他就辞职了,我也不会怪他们。但阿贝尔不一样,他既有自主权,也愿意接受别人的建议和帮助。他是真正的领导者。

在伯克希尔,我们并不期待每个管理者都用相同的方式做事。有些管理者表现非常优秀,有些则未必。但一个组织的管理水平是可以看出来的——如果组织氛围开始下滑,那就意味着领导层也需要做出调整。

例如,我们在一家零售店发现,曾有员工告诉朋友:“来买点东西吧,我可以给你打折。”虽然出发点是好的,但这违反了公司的员工折扣规定。这种行为具有“传染性”。

我们不希望看到管理层带头破坏规则谋取私利。一旦如此,整个组织就可能会朝着错误的方向发展。


# Q30: 对环境变化的看法(Berkshire's View on Environmental Changes)

1:38 p.m. Shareholders' Meeting Question 30: What does Berkshire think about environmental changes?
Abel said Berkshire takes this into account when backing and acquiring energy companies, which must take into account federal and state government requirements.

Abel provides the example of how the electricity mix in Iowa changed in the early 21st century.

Abel said that in the early 2000s, Iowa had a power shortage and the state was relying on coal-fired power generation. He discussed with the governor to determine how to maintain a long-term energy supply. Various types of energy were discussed at the time.

Abel stressed that with the support of state legislators, Iowa built a large wind power project and eliminated a number of coal-fired units. Berkshire built the largest wind power station project in the United States in Iowa, investing $16 billion and eliminating a number of coal-fired units.

Abel added that coal-fired units were still needed to maintain a stable power supply, which won applause from the audience.

Abel said that renewable energy and non-carbon energy must be promoted in accordance with national requirements. Berkshire has made decisions that are fully in line with federal and state government requirements, respecting all state processes and cooperating with them. "We will continue to work with the states to determine the path they want to plan."

“We can’t have a situation like Spain or Portugal,” Abel warned, referring to the recent blackouts that hit Spain and Portugal on the Iberian Peninsula, which means Berkshire’s energy business still needs coal-fired power plants to continue generating enough electricity.

Q30: 对环境变化的看法(Berkshire’s View on Environmental Changes)
阿贝尔表示,在支持和收购能源公司时,伯克希尔会将这些因素考虑进去,同时必须符合联邦和州政府的相关政策要求。

他举了一个爱荷华州电力结构变迁的例子。

他表示:“在2000年代初,爱荷华州面临电力短缺,当时主要依赖燃煤发电。我和州长探讨如何维持长期供电稳定,当时讨论了各种能源方案。”

他强调,在州立法机构的支持下,爱荷华州建设了大型风电项目,并逐步淘汰了一批燃煤机组。伯克希尔在爱荷华州投资了160亿美元,建成了美国最大的风力发电站项目,并关停了一些燃煤机组。

阿贝尔补充说,为了保证稳定的电力供应,燃煤机组仍然有其必要性。此话赢得现场掌声。

他表示,可再生能源和非碳能源的发展必须依照国家要求推进。伯克希尔所作的决定完全符合联邦及各州政府的要求,尊重所有流程并与之合作。“我们将继续与各州协作,确定他们想要发展的路径。”

他还警告说:“我们不能让西班牙或葡萄牙那样的情况发生。”他指的是伊比利亚半岛最近发生的停电事件,这表明伯克希尔的能源业务仍需要燃煤电厂来持续提供足够电力。


# Q31: 美国医疗改革(U.S. Health Care Reform)

1:44 p.m. Shareholders' Meeting Question 31: U.S. Health Care Reform
A nurse asked Berkshire why it terminated its cooperation with JPMorgan Chase and Amazon in the healthcare field and its thoughts on U.S. healthcare reform. Buffett said that the cooperation was terminated because they faced too much resistance to change.

Q31: 美国医疗改革(U.S. Health Care Reform)
一名护士提问,伯克希尔为何终止与摩根大通和亚马逊在医疗领域的合作?对于美国医疗体系的改革有何看法。巴菲特表示,这项合作终止的原因是他们在推动改变的过程中遇到了太多阻力。


# Q32: 阿贝尔未来角色(Abel's Role in the Future)

1:54 p.m. Shareholders' Meeting Question 32: Abel's role in the future
Some people asked whether Abel will take over Berkshire in the future, including the responsibility of asset allocation, and whether his focus will be as an investor or he will play more of a business operator role.

Buffett said, "To be honest, it is very difficult to be an operator of a business, while it is relatively easy to sit in a room and manage money, and it is easier to be envied. I always feel that I am very lucky because I have the opportunity to choose who to work with. I have never been let down by my teachers or partners in my life, which is rare."

I am also grateful that I have the freedom to choose what I want to do every day, a freedom and flexibility that many professional managers do not have. To be honest, I never thought about becoming the "top manager" of a company - it is not a role I am good at or like.

Now I can run the company in the way I like, which is a blessing for me. Abel is a very good operator and is good at handling complex operations. The reason why I can hand over this job to him is because I believe he will handle it well.

As for asset allocation, that is of course part of the future work. But I want to emphasize that the real challenge is not just 'investment', but how to do the right thing with Berkshire's resources. Abel will be someone who can combine these two things well.

Q32: 阿贝尔未来角色(Abel's Role in the Future)
有人问,阿贝尔是否会接掌伯克希尔未来的资产配置职责,他的定位是偏向投资者还是偏向实业经营者?

巴菲特表示:“坦率地说,做一个企业的经营者是非常难的,而坐在房间里管钱相对容易得多,也更容易受到羡慕。我一直觉得自己很幸运,因为我有机会选择与谁共事。我一生中从未被老师或合作伙伴辜负过,这是非常难得的事。”

他也感恩自己每天都能自由选择想做的事,这种自由和灵活性,是很多职业经理人所没有的。他说:“老实讲,我从没想过要成为一家公司的‘最高管理者’,这不是我擅长也不喜欢的角色。”

“如今我能按自己的意愿来经营这家公司,对我来说是一种福气。阿贝尔是一位非常出色的经营者,擅长处理复杂的运营事务。我能放心把这份工作交给他,是因为我相信他一定能胜任。”

至于资产配置,当然也是未来工作的组成部分。但他特别强调:“真正的挑战不仅仅是‘投资’,而是如何用好伯克希尔的资源。在这方面,阿贝尔正是能够兼顾两者的人。”


# 股东大会问答环节结束(The Q&A Session Ends)

1:57 The Q&A session of the shareholders meeting ends
Buffett declared:

"Greg (Abel) should become the CEO of (Berkshire) by the end of the year."

Buffett said that after leaving office, he will remain at Berkshire and provide help, but the "final decision" will be in Abel's hands.

Buffett said Abel didn't know about it. Neither did the rest of the board, except for his children.

Buffett said he had no intention of selling any Berkshire shares, but would gradually donate his holdings. He said: "I have absolutely no intention of selling any Berkshire Hathaway shares. I will gradually donate them." This statement caused applause and cheers from the audience.

Buffett continued: "I would add that the decision to retain all of my shares was an economic decision because I believed that Berkshire's prospects would be better under Greg (Abel)'s management than they were under mine."
He said the decision also showed his confidence in Abel's leadership. Buffett concluded:

“But I’ll be in, and maybe one day we’ll have the opportunity to invest a significant amount of money. At that point, I think it might be helpful for the board — to let them know that I’m putting all my money into the company, and I think that’s smart, and I’ve seen Greg’s track record.”

股东大会问答环节结束(The Q&A Session Ends)
巴菲特宣布:

“格雷格(阿贝尔)应该会在今年年底正式成为伯克希尔的CEO。”

他进一步表示,卸任之后他仍将留在伯克希尔,提供协助,但“最终决定权”将交给阿贝尔。

他表示,阿贝尔本人还不知道这个决定,董事会其他成员也不知道,只有他的子女知情。

巴菲特称自己没有出售伯克希尔股票的计划,但会逐步捐赠持股。“我绝对没有任何出售伯克希尔哈撒韦股份的打算。我会逐步捐出我的持股。”这句话引发了现场热烈的掌声与欢呼。

他接着说道:“我还想强调,我之所以保留全部股份,其实是一个经济上的判断,因为我相信在格雷格(阿贝尔)领导下,伯克希尔的前景会比我执掌时期更好。”

这一决定也体现了他对阿贝尔领导能力的信心。巴菲特最后总结道:

“我会继续参与其中,也许有一天我们会有机会投入一大笔资金。到时候,我想这对董事会来说也是一种信心加持——他们会知道我把所有的钱都投进了公司,我认为这是明智之举,而且我已经看到了格雷格的实际成绩。”

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上次更新: 2025/07/14, 21:42:27
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