2014巴菲特致股东的信
# BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司 致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东:
Berkshire’s gain in net worth during 2014 was $18.3 billion, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 8.3%. Over the last 50 years (that is, since present management took over), per-share book value has grown from $19 to $146,186, a rate of 19.4% compounded annually.*
2014年,伯克希尔的净资产增长了183亿美元,使我们的A类和B类股票每股账面价值增长了8.3%。在过去50年里(即现任管理层接管以来),每股账面价值以19.4%的年复合增长率从19美元增至146,186美元。*
During our tenure, we have consistently compared the yearly performance of the S&P 500 to the change in Berkshire’s per-share book value. We’ve done that because book value has been a crude, but useful, tracking device for the number that really counts: intrinsic business value.
在我们的管理期间,我们持续将标准普尔500指数的年度表现与伯克希尔每股账面价值的变化进行比较。我们之所以这样做,是因为账面价值一直是衡量真正重要数值——企业内在价值——的粗略但有用的工具。
In our early decades, the relationship between book value and intrinsic value was much closer than it is now. That was true because Berkshire’s assets were then largely securities whose values were continuously restated to reflect their current market prices. In Wall Street parlance, most of the assets involved in the calculation of book value were “marked to market.”
在我们管理的早期,账面价值与内在价值的关系比现在更紧密。这是因为伯克希尔的资产当时主要是证券,其价值会根据市场价格定期调整。用华尔街的说法,账面价值计算中涉及的大部分资产是“按市值计价的”。
Today, our emphasis has shifted in a major way to owning and operating large businesses. Many of these are worth far more than their cost-based carrying value. But that amount is never revalued upward no matter how much the value of these companies has increased. Consequently, the gap between Berkshire’s intrinsic value and its book value has materially widened.
如今,我们已大幅转向拥有和运营大型企业。其中许多企业的价值远高于其基于成本的账面价值。但无论这些公司的价值如何增长,其账面价值从未向上调整。因此,伯克希尔的内在价值与账面价值之间的差距显著扩大。
With that in mind, we have added a new set of data – the historical record of Berkshire’s stock price – to the performance table on the facing page. Market prices, let me stress, have their limitations in the short term. Monthly or yearly movements of stocks are often erratic and not indicative of changes in intrinsic value. Over time, however, stock prices and intrinsic value almost invariably converge. Charlie Munger, Berkshire Vice Chairman and my partner, and I believe that has been true at Berkshire: In our view, the increase in Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic value over the past 50 years is roughly equal to the 1,826,163% gain in market price of the company’s shares.
为此,我们在下一页的业绩表中新增了一组数据——伯克希尔股价的历史记录。需要强调的是,市场价格在短期内存在局限性。股价的月度或年度波动往往剧烈且无法反映内在价值的变化。但从长期来看,股价与内在价值几乎总是趋于一致。查理·芒格(伯克希尔副董事长兼我的合作伙伴)和我都认为这一规律适用于伯克希尔:我们认为,过去50年伯克希尔每股内在价值的增长幅度与股价1,826,163%的增长大致相当。
- All per-share figures used in this report apply to Berkshire’s A shares. Figures for the B shares are 1/1500th of those shown for A.
- 本报告中所有每股数据均适用于伯克希尔A类股票(Class A)。B类股票(Class B)数据为A类股票的1/1500。
# The Year at Berkshire (2014)
伯克希尔年度回顾(2014年)
It was a good year for Berkshire on all major fronts, except one. Here are the important developments:
除了一项业务外,伯克希尔在所有主要领域均表现出色。以下是重要进展:
‹
Our “Powerhouse Five” – a collection of Berkshire’s largest non-insurance businesses – had a record $12.4 billion of pre-tax earnings in 2014, up $1.6 billion from 2013.* The companies in this sainted group are Berkshire Hathaway Energy (formerly MidAmerican Energy), BNSF, IMC (I’ve called it Iscar in the past), Lubrizol and Marmon.
我们的“五大核心企业”——伯克希尔最大的非保险业务组合——2014年税前收益创纪录达124亿美元,较2013年增长16亿美元。* 这一神圣组合包括:伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司(原中美能源控股)、BNSF铁路公司、IMC(过去称为Iscar)、路博润(Lubrizol)和马蒙集团(Marmon)。
Of the five, only Berkshire Hathaway Energy, then earning $393 million, was owned by us a decade ago. Subsequently we purchased another three of the five on an all-cash basis. In acquiring the fifth, BNSF, we paid about 70% of the cost in cash and, for the remainder, issued Berkshire shares that increased the number outstanding by 6.1%. In other words, the $12 billion gain in annual earnings delivered Berkshire by the five companies over the ten-year span has been accompanied by only minor dilution. That satisfies our goal of not simply increasing earnings, but making sure we also increase per-share results.
十年前,我们仅拥有伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司(当时年收益3.93亿美元)。此后以全现金收购了其他三家,收购BNSF时支付70%现金及6.1%增发股份。十年间,这五家企业贡献的120亿美元年收益增长仅伴随轻微股权稀释,这符合我们既要提升总收益,也要确保每股收益同步增长的目标。
If the U.S. economy continues to improve in 2015, we expect earnings of our Powerhouse Five to improve as well. The gain could reach $1 billion, in part because of bolt-on acquisitions by the group that have already closed or are under contract.
若美国经济在2015年持续改善,我们预计“五大核心企业”收益将继续增长。部分增长将来自已完成或签约的补充性并购,潜在增益可达10亿美元。
Our bad news from 2014 comes from our group of five as well and is unrelated to earnings. During the year, BNSF disappointed many of its customers. These shippers depend on us, and service failures can badly hurt their businesses.
2014年的坏消息同样来自“五大核心企业”。BNSF在这一年让许多客户失望。货运商依赖我们的服务,服务失误会严重损害他们的业务。
BNSF is, by far, Berkshire’s most important non-insurance subsidiary and, to improve its performance, we will spend $6 billion on plant and equipment in 2015. That sum is nearly 50% more than any other railroad has spent in a single year and is a truly extraordinary amount, whether compared to revenues, earnings or depreciation charges.
BNSF是伯克希尔最重要的非保险子公司。为提升其运营,我们计划在2015年投入60亿美元用于工厂和设备升级。这一金额比其他铁路公司单年最高支出高出近50%,无论与营收、利润或折旧费用相比均属罕见。
Though weather, which was particularly severe last year, will always cause railroads a variety of operating problems, our responsibility is to do whatever it takes to restore our service to industry-leading levels. That can’t be done overnight: The extensive work required to increase system capacity sometimes disrupts operations while it is underway. Recently, however, our outsized expenditures are beginning to show results. During the last three months, BNSF’s performance metrics have materially improved from last year’s figures.
尽管去年极端天气给铁路业带来诸多运营难题,我们的责任是采取一切措施恢复行业领先地位。系统扩容工程需长期推进且可能短期扰动运营,但近期巨额投入已初见成效:过去三个月BNSF的运营指标显著优于2014年同期。
Our many dozens of smaller non-insurance businesses earned $5.1 billion last year, up from $4.7 billion in 2013. Here, as with our Powerhouse Five, we expect further gains in 2015. Within this group, we have two companies that last year earned between $400 million and $600 million, six that earned between $250 million and $400 million, and seven that earned between $100 million and $250 million. This collection of businesses will increase in both number and earnings. Our ambitions have no finish line.
我们的数十家小型非保险业务2014年收益51亿美元,高于2013年的47亿美元。与“五大核心企业”类似,我们预计2015年将实现进一步增长。该组中:2家公司年收益介于4-6亿美元,6家公司介于2.5-4亿美元,7家公司介于1-2.5亿美元。这一企业组合的数量和收益将持续扩大,我们的雄心永无止境。
Berkshire’s huge and growing insurance operation again operated at an underwriting profit in 2014 – that makes 12 years in a row – and increased its float. During that 12-year stretch, our float – money that doesn’t belong to us but that we can invest for Berkshire’s benefit – has grown from $41 billion to $84 billion. Though neither that gain nor the size of our float is reflected in Berkshire’s earnings, float generates significant investment income because of the assets it allows us to hold.
伯克希尔庞大且不断增长的保险业务2014年再次实现承保利润——连续第12年盈利——并扩大了浮存金规模。12年间,我们的浮存金(不属于我们但可为伯克希尔投资的资金)从410亿美元增至840亿美元。尽管这些增长和浮存金规模本身未反映在收益中,但其持有的资产带来了可观的投资收益。
- Throughout this letter, as well as in the “Golden Anniversary” letters included later in this report, all earnings are stated on a pre-tax basis unless otherwise designated.
- 本信及后续“五十周年”章节中所有收益均以税前为基础陈述,除非另有说明。
# Strategic Acquisitions and Partnerships
战略并购与合作
While Charlie and I search for new businesses to buy, our many subsidiaries are regularly making bolt-on acquisitions. Last year was particularly fruitful: We contracted for 31 bolt-ons, scheduled to cost $7.8 billion in aggregate. The size of these transactions ranged from $400,000 to $2.9 billion. However, the largest acquisition, Duracell, will not close until the second half of this year. It will then be placed under Marmon’s jurisdiction.
查理和我寻找新收购标的的同时,旗下子公司频繁进行补充性并购。去年尤为丰硕:完成31项交易,总成本78亿美元,单笔金额从40万美元至29亿美元不等。其中最大的金霸王(Duracell)收购将于今年下半年完成,届时将纳入马蒙集团管理。
Charlie and I encourage bolt-ons, if they are sensibly-priced. (Most deals offered us aren’t.) They deploy capital in activities that fit with our existing businesses and that will be managed by our corps of expert managers. This means no additional work for us, yet more earnings, a combination we find particularly appealing. We will make many more of these bolt-on deals in future years.
查理和我支持合理定价的补充性并购。(多数卖方提供的交易显然不符合这一标准。)这些收购将资金投入与现有业务协同的运营中,并由专业经理团队管理。这意味着无需我们额外操心,却能为伯克希尔创造更多收益——这种组合令我们高度青睐。未来数年,我们将完成更多此类交易。
Two years ago my friend, Jorge Paulo Lemann, asked Berkshire to join his 3G Capital group in the acquisition of Heinz. My affirmative response was a no-brainer: I knew immediately that this partnership would work well from both a personal and financial standpoint. And it most definitely has.
两年前,好友豪尔赫·保罗·莱曼(Jorge Paulo Lemann)邀请伯克希尔加入其3G资本集团(3G Capital)收购亨氏(Heinz)的行动。我的积极回应无需犹豫:我立刻意识到这一合作从个人关系与财务角度均会成功。事实证明确实如此。
I’m not embarrassed to admit that Heinz is run far better under Alex Behring, Chairman, and Bernardo Hees, CEO, than would be the case if I were in charge. They hold themselves to extraordinarily high performance standards and are never satisfied, even when their results far exceed those of competitors.
我毫不羞愧地承认,亨氏在董事长亚历克斯·贝林(Alex Behring)和CEO贝尔纳多·希斯(Bernardo Hees)领导下运营远超我的能力范围。他们设定的绩效标准极其严苛,即使结果远超同行也永不满足。
We expect to partner with 3G in more activities. Sometimes our participation will only involve a financing role, as was the case in the recent acquisition of Tim Hortons by Burger King. Our favored arrangement, however, will usually be to link up as a permanent equity partner (who, in some cases, contributes to the financing of the deal as well). Whatever the structure, we feel good when working with Jorge Paulo.
我们预计与3G资本在更多领域合作。有时仅作为融资方(如近期汉堡王收购提姆·霍顿斯的案例),但我们更偏好成为长期股权合伙人(必要时也提供资金支持)。无论合作形式如何,与豪尔赫·保罗的合作总令人安心。
Berkshire also has fine partnerships with Mars and Leucadia, and we may form new ones with them or with other partners. Our participation in any joint activities, whether as a financing or equity partner, will be limited to friendly transactions.
伯克希尔与玛氏(Mars)和乐富美尼(Leucadia)也有优质合作,未来可能与它们或其他伙伴建立新合作关系。无论作为融资方还是股权方,我们只参与友好型交易。
In October, we contracted to buy Van Tuyl Automotive, a group of 78 automobile dealerships that is exceptionally well-run. Larry Van Tuyl, the company’s owner, and I met some years ago. He then decided that if he were ever to sell his company, its home should be Berkshire. Our purchase was recently completed, and we are now “car guys.”
10月,我们签署协议收购范图尔汽车集团(Van Tuyl Automotive),该公司运营78家汽车经销店,堪称业内典范。公司创始人拉里·范图尔(Larry Van Tuyl)多年前曾与我见面。他当时决定,若出售公司,伯克希尔将是首选买家。交易现已完成,我们正式成为“汽车经销商”。
Larry and his dad, Cecil, spent 62 years building the group, following a strategy that made owner-partners of all local managers. Creating this mutuality of interests proved over and over to be a winner. Van Tuyl is now the fifth-largest automotive group in the country, with per-dealership sales figures that are outstanding.
拉里与父亲塞西尔(Cecil)耗时62年打造该集团,采用“本地经理持股”战略。这种利益共享模式被反复验证有效。范图尔现为美国第五大汽车经销集团,每家门店的销售业绩均领先同业。
In recent years, Jeff Rachor has worked alongside Larry, a successful arrangement that will continue. There are about 17,000 dealerships in the country, and ownership transfers always require approval by the relevant auto manufacturer. Berkshire’s job is to perform in a manner that will cause manufacturers to welcome further purchases by us. If we do this – and if we can buy dealerships at sensible prices – we will build a business that before long will be multiples the size of Van Tuyl’s $9 billion of sales.
近年来,杰夫·拉彻(Jeff Rachor)与拉里并肩作战,这一成功合作将继续。全美约17,000家汽车经销商,所有权变更需厂商批准。伯克希尔的任务是通过卓越运营赢得厂商信任,若能合理定价收购,不久后我们将打造一个规模远超范图尔90亿美元销售额的汽车经销帝国。
With the acquisition of Van Tuyl, Berkshire now owns 9¹⁄₂ companies that would be listed on the Fortune 500 were they independent (Heinz is the ¹⁄₂). That leaves 490¹⁄₂ fish in the sea. Our lines are out.
范图尔收购完成后,伯克希尔现拥有9.5家若独立运营即可进入《财富》500强的企业(亨氏占0.5)。这意味着美国商业巨头中仍有490.5家待收购。我们的钓竿已抛向大海。
- All per-share figures used in this report apply to Berkshire’s A shares. Figures for the B shares are 1/1500th of those shown for A.
- 本报告中所有每股数据均适用于伯克希尔A类股票(Class A)。B类股票(Class B)数据为A类股票的1/1500。
# Subsidiary Investments and Workforce Growth
子公司投资与员工增长
Our subsidiaries spent a record $15 billion on plant and equipment during 2014, well over twice their depreciation charges. About 90% of that money was spent in the United States. Though we will always invest abroad as well, the mother lode of opportunities runs through America. The treasures that have been uncovered up to now are dwarfed by those still untapped. Through dumb luck, Charlie and I were born in the United States, and we are forever grateful for the staggering advantages this accident of birth has given us.
我们的子公司2014年在厂房和设备上投入创纪录的150亿美元,远超当年折旧费用的两倍。其中约90%资金用于美国本土。尽管我们也会投资海外,但真正的宝藏在美国。目前已发现的机遇与未开发潜力相比微不足道。得益于出生在美国这一偶然幸运,查理和我深知这一偶然带来的巨大优势,并对此永怀感恩。
Berkshire’s yearend employees – including those at Heinz – totaled a record 340,499, up 9,754 from last year. The increase, I am proud to say, included no gain at headquarters (where 25 people work). No sense going crazy.
伯克希尔2014年末员工总数(含亨氏)创纪录达340,499人,较上年增加9,754人。值得一提的是,总部员工数(仅25人)未随增长而扩张。我们不会为此疯狂增员。
# Strategic Ownership Increases in “Big Four”
“四大持仓”持股比例提升
Berkshire increased its ownership interest last year in each of its “Big Four” investments – American Express, Coca-Cola, IBM and Wells Fargo. We purchased additional shares of IBM (increasing our ownership to 7.8% versus 6.3% at yearend 2013). Meanwhile, stock repurchases at Coca-Cola, American Express and Wells Fargo raised our percentage ownership of each. Our equity in Coca-Cola grew from 9.1% to 9.2%, our interest in American Express increased from 14.2% to 14.8% and our ownership of Wells Fargo grew from 9.2% to 9.4%.
伯克希尔去年对“四大持仓”——美国运通(AmEx)、可口可乐(Coca-Cola)、IBM和富国银行(Wells Fargo)的持股比例均提升。我们增持IBM至7.8%(2013年末为6.3%)。可口可乐、美国运通和富国银行因回购股份,我们被动持股比例分别升至9.2%、14.8%和9.4%。
And, if you think tenths of a percent aren’t important, ponder this math: For the four companies in aggregate, each increase of one-tenth of a percent in our ownership raises Berkshire’s portion of their annual earnings by $50 million.
若您认为0.1%的变动无关紧要,请看数据:对这四家公司整体而言,我们每增持0.1%,即可多享有5000万美元年收益。
These four investees possess excellent businesses and are run by managers who are both talented and shareholder-oriented. At Berkshire, we much prefer owning a non-controlling but substantial portion of a wonderful company to owning 100% of a so-so business. It’s better to have a partial interest in the Hope Diamond than to own all of a rhinestone.
这四家被投企业拥有卓越业务,管理层兼具才华与股东导向。伯克希尔更偏好持有优质公司的非控股但可观股份,而非全资拥有平庸企业。正如我们更愿持有希望钻石的一部分,而非拥有一整颗人造钻石。
If Berkshire’s yearend holdings are used as the marker, our portion of the “Big Four’s” 2014 earnings before discontinued operations amounted to $4.7 billion (compared to $3.3 billion only three years ago). In the earnings we report to you, however, we include only the dividends we receive – about $1.6 billion last year. (Again, three years ago the dividends were $862 million.) But make no mistake: The $3.1 billion of these companies’ earnings we don’t report are every bit as valuable to us as the portion Berkshire records.
若以伯克希尔年末持股为基准,我们在“四大持仓”2014年持续经营收益中应占47亿美元(三年前为33亿美元)。但我们在报告中仅计入股息——去年约16亿美元(三年前为8.62亿美元)。请勿误解:我们未报告的31亿美元收益与账面记录部分同样重要。
The earnings these investees retain are often used for repurchases of their own stock – a move that enhances Berkshire’s share of future earnings without requiring us to lay out a dime. Their retained earnings also fund business opportunities that usually turn out to be advantageous. All that leads us to expect that the per-share earnings of these four investees, in aggregate, will grow substantially over time (though 2015 will be a tough year for the group, in part because of the strong dollar). If the expected gains materialize, dividends to Berkshire will increase and, even more important, so will our unrealized capital gains. (For the package of four, our unrealized gains already totaled $42 billion at yearend.)
这些被投企业留存的收益常用于回购自身股票——此举无需我们追加投资,即可提升伯克希尔未来收益占比。留存收益也用于开拓通常有利可图的商业机会。因此我们预计,这四家企业的每股收益整体将长期大幅增长(尽管2015年受美元强势影响表现可能承压)。若收益实现,伯克希尔将获得更多股息及未实现资本收益。(截至年末,这四大持仓的未实现资本收益已累计达420亿美元。)
# Capital Allocation Flexibility and Manager Development
资本配置灵活性与管理者培养
Our flexibility in capital allocation – our willingness to invest large sums passively in non-controlled businesses – gives us a significant advantage over companies that limit themselves to acquisitions they can operate. Our appetite for either operating businesses or passive investments doubles our chances of finding sensible uses for Berkshire’s endless gusher of cash.
我们在资本配置上的灵活性——愿意被动投资非控股企业——相较于仅限于自营收购的公司,这是显著优势。我们对自营企业与被动投资的双重偏好,让伯克希尔找到明智现金用途的机会翻倍。
I’ve mentioned in the past that my experience in business helps me as an investor and that my investment experience has made me a better businessman. Each pursuit teaches lessons that are applicable to the other. And some truths can only be fully learned through experience.
我曾提到,商业经验帮助我成为更好的投资者,投资经验也让我成为更出色的商人。这两者相互启发。有些真理只能通过实践领悟。
# Learning Through Experience
通过实践领悟
(In Fred Schwed’s wonderful book, Where Are the Customers’ Yachts?, a Peter Arno cartoon depicts a puzzled Adam looking at an eager Eve, while a caption says, “There are certain things that cannot be adequately explained to a virgin either by words or pictures.” If you haven’t read Schwed’s book, buy a copy at our annual meeting. Its wisdom and humor are truly priceless.)
(弗雷德·施韦德的经典著作《客户的游艇在哪里?》(Where Are the Customers’ Yachts?)中,彼得·阿诺的漫画描绘了困惑的亚当望着热切的夏娃,配文写道:“有些事既无法用言语也无法用图画向初学者解释清楚。”若您未读过此书,请在股东大会购买。其智慧与幽默价值连城。)
Among Arno’s “certain things,” I would include two separate skills, the evaluation of investments and the management of businesses. I therefore think it’s worthwhile for Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, our two investment managers, to each have oversight of at least one of our businesses. A sensible opportunity for them to do so opened up a few months ago when we agreed to purchase two companies that, though smaller than we would normally acquire, have excellent economic characteristics. Combined, the two earn $100 million annually on about $125 million of net tangible assets.
在阿诺笔下的“某些事”中,我补充两项技能:投资评估与企业管理。因此我认为,让两位投资经理托德·康布斯(Todd Combs)和泰德·韦施勒(Ted Wesch勒)各管理至少一家子公司具有重要意义。几个月前,我们收购两家规模虽小但经济特性优秀的企业,这一机会随之而来。两家企业合计年收益约1亿美元,净有形资产约1.25亿美元。
I’ve asked Todd and Ted to each take on one as Chairman, in which role they will function in the very limited way that I do with our larger subsidiaries. This arrangement will save me a minor amount of work and, more important, make the two of them even better investors than they already are (which is to say among the best).
我已邀请托德与泰德担任这两家企业的董事长,在此角色中他们将以我管理大型子公司的有限干预方式运营。这一安排将减轻我的工作负担,更重要的是让他们成为比现有水平更优秀的投资者(他们本已是顶尖人才)。
# BNSF Acquisition and Economic Outlook
BNSF收购与经济展望
Late in 2009, amidst the gloom of the Great Recession, we agreed to buy BNSF(伯灵顿北方圣达菲铁路公司), the largest purchase in Berkshire’s history. At the time, I called the transaction an “all-in wager on the economic future of the United States.”
2009年末,在大萧条的阴霾中,我们达成收购BNSF的协议——这是伯克希尔史上最大交易。当时我称此为“对美国经济未来的全力押注”。
That kind of commitment was nothing new for us. We’ve been making similar wagers ever since Buffett Partnership Ltd. acquired control of Berkshire in 1965. For good reason, too: Charlie and I have always considered a “bet” on ever-rising U.S. prosperity to be very close to a sure thing.
这种承诺对我们而言并非新鲜事。自1965年巴菲特合伙公司接管伯克希尔以来,我们始终如此下注。原因显而易见:查理和我始终坚信,押注美国持续繁荣几乎稳赢。
Indeed, who has ever benefited during the past 238 years by betting against America? If you compare our country’s present condition to that existing in 1776, you have to rub your eyes in wonder. In my lifetime alone, real per-capita U.S. output has sextupled. My parents could not have dreamed in 1930 of the world their son would see. Though the preachers of pessimism prattle endlessly about America’s problems, I’ve never seen one who wishes to emigrate (though I can think of a few for whom I would happily buy a one-way ticket).
事实上,过去238年里,谁曾通过做空美国获利?若将今日美国与1776年对比,您定会惊叹。仅在我一生中,美国人均实际产出已增长六倍。我的父母在1930年无法想象他们后代所见的世界。尽管唱衰者不断抱怨美国问题,但我从未见过真正想移民的人(当然,有几个例外——我倒愿意赠送单程票)。
# Berkshire’s Strategic Foundation
伯克希尔战略基石
The dynamism embedded in our market economy will continue to work its magic. Gains won’t come in a smooth or uninterrupted manner; they never have. And we will regularly grumble about our government. But, most assuredly, America’s best days lie ahead.
美国市场机制的活力将持续创造奇迹。收益不会一帆风顺,历史从未如此;我们也会抱怨政府。但可以肯定的是,美国最辉煌的日子尚未到来。
With this tailwind working for us, Charlie and I hope to build Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic value by (1) constantly improving the basic earning power of our many subsidiaries; (2) further increasing their earnings through bolt-on acquisitions; (3) benefiting from the growth of our investees; (4) repurchasing Berkshire shares when they are available at a meaningful discount from intrinsic value; and (5) making an occasional large acquisition. We will also try to maximize results for you by rarely, if ever, issuing Berkshire shares.
凭借这一有利风向,我们将通过以下五点提升每股内在价值:(1)持续增强旗下子公司基础盈利能力;(2)通过补充性并购进一步提升收益;(3)受益于被投企业增长;(4)当股价大幅低于内在价值时回购股份;(5)偶尔进行大型收购。此外,我们通过极少增发股份为您最大化收益。
Those building blocks rest on a rock-solid foundation. A century hence, BNSF and Berkshire Hathaway Energy will still be playing vital roles in our economy. Homes and autos will remain central to the lives of most families. Insurance will continue to be essential for both businesses and individuals. Looking ahead, Charlie and I see a world made to order for Berkshire. We feel fortunate to be entrusted with its management.
这些战略建立在坚实基础上。百年后,BNSF和伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司仍将支撑美国经济。住房与汽车将继续是多数家庭的核心;保险对企业和个人仍不可或缺。查理和我预见,这个世界终将属于伯克希尔。我们深感幸运能肩负管理使命。
# Intrinsic Business Value Estimation
企业内在价值评估
As much as Charlie and I talk about intrinsic business value, we cannot tell you precisely what that number is for Berkshire shares (nor, in fact, for any other stock). In our 2010 annual report, however, we laid out the three elements – one of them qualitative – that we believe are the keys to a sensible estimate of Berkshire’s intrinsic value. That discussion is reproduced in full on pages 123-124.
尽管查理和我常谈论企业内在价值,但我们无法精确告知伯克希尔股票的这一数值(对任何股票均如此)。2010年年报中,我们列出了三个关键要素(含一项定性因素),用于合理估算伯克希尔内在价值。完整讨论见第123-124页。
Here is an update of the two quantitative factors: In 2014 our per-share investments increased 8.4% to $140,123, and our earnings from businesses other than insurance and investments increased 19% to $10,847 per share.
以下是两项定量要素的更新:2014年,我们每股投资组合增长8.4%至140,123美元;非保险及非投资业务的每股收益增长19%至10,847美元。
Since 1970, our per-share investments have increased at a rate of 19% compounded annually, and our earnings figure has grown at a 20.6% clip. It is no coincidence that the price of Berkshire stock over the ensuing 44 years has increased at a rate very similar to that of our two measures of value. Charlie and I like to see gains in both sectors, but our main focus is to build operating earnings. That’s why we were pleased to exchange our Phillips 66 and Graham Holdings stock for operating businesses last year and to contract with Procter & Gamble to acquire Duracell by means of a similar exchange set to close in 2015.
自1970年以来,我们的每股投资以19%的年复合增长率增长,收益(含非保险及非投资业务)增长率达20.6%。44年间,伯克希尔股价增长速度与这两项价值指标非常接近绝非偶然。我们乐见两者增长,但更专注运营收益。这正是去年我们将菲利普斯66(Phillips 66)与格雷厄姆控股(Graham Holdings)换为运营企业,并与宝洁公司(P&G)达成以类似方式收购金霸王(Duracell)的原因(后者交易将于2015年完成)。
# Four Major Operational Sectors
四大核心业务板块
Now, let’s examine the four major sectors of our operations. Each has vastly different balance sheet and income characteristics from the others. So we’ll present them as four separate businesses, which is how Charlie and I view them (though there are important and enduring advantages to having them all under one roof). Our goal is to provide you with the information we would wish to have if our positions were reversed, with you being the reporting manager and we the absentee shareholders. (But don’t get any ideas!)
现在让我们分析四大核心业务板块。每一块的资产负债表和利润表特征截然不同。因此我们将其视为四个独立业务呈现——这也是查理和我的视角(尽管统一管理具有长期优势)。我们的目标是提供您希望看到的信息,如同您作为管理者向我们汇报时所需的资料。(不过别真这么想!)
# Insurance Business and Float
保险业务与浮存金
Let’s look first at insurance, Berkshire’s core operation. That industry has been the engine that has propelled our expansion since 1967, when we acquired National Indemnity and its sister company, National Fire & Marine, for $8.6 million. Though that purchase had monumental consequences for Berkshire, its execution was simplicity itself.
让我们首先聚焦伯克希尔的核心业务——保险。自1967年以860万美元收购国家赔偿保险公司(National Indemnity)及其姊妹公司国家火灾与海事保险公司(National Fire & Marine)以来,保险业一直是推动我们扩张的核心引擎。尽管这一收购对伯克希尔意义深远,但交易过程却异常简洁。
Jack Ringwalt, a friend of mine who was the controlling shareholder of the two companies, came to my office saying he would like to sell. Fifteen minutes later, we had a deal. Neither of Jack’s companies had ever had an audit by a public accounting firm, and I didn’t ask for one. My reasoning: (1) Jack was honest and (2) He was also a bit quirky and likely to walk away if the deal became at all complicated.
我的朋友、两家公司控股股东杰克·林戈尔特(Jack Ringwalt)来到办公室表示愿意出售。15分钟后,我们达成协议。两家公司从未接受过会计事务所审计,我也未要求审计。理由很简单:(1)杰克为人诚实;(2)他性格古怪,若交易变得复杂会直接放弃。
On pages 128-129, we reproduce the 1¹⁄₂-page purchase agreement we used to finalize the transaction. That contract was homemade: Neither side used a lawyer. Per page, this has to be Berkshire’s best deal: National Indemnity today has GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) net worth of $111 billion, which exceeds that of any other insurer in the world.
第128-129页完整展示了我们签署的1.5页收购协议。这份合同纯属“家庭制作”——双方均未聘请律师。按每页成本计算,这可能是伯克希尔史上最划算的交易:国家赔偿保险公司今日按通用会计准则(GAAP)计算的净资产达1110亿美元,超过全球任何其他保险公司。
# Float Growth and Management
浮存金增长与管理
One reason we were attracted to the property-casualty business was its financial characteristics: P/C insurers receive premiums upfront and pay claims later. In extreme cases, such as those arising from certain workers’ compensation accidents, payments can stretch over many decades. This collect-now, pay-later model leaves P/C companies holding large sums – money we call “float” – that will eventually go to others. Meanwhile, insurers get to invest this float for their benefit.
我们被财产险业务吸引的原因之一是其财务特性:保险公司先收取保费,之后支付理赔。极端情况下(如某些工伤赔偿事故),支付可能持续数十年。这种“先收后付”模式使保险公司持有大量资金——我们称之为“浮存金”——最终流向索赔者。而在此期间,保险公司可利用这些资金进行投资。
Though individual policies and claims come and go, the amount of float an insurer holds usually remains fairly stable in relation to premium volume. Consequently, as our business grows, so does our float. And how we have grown, as the following table shows:
尽管具体保单和理赔不断变化,但浮存金规模通常与保费收入保持稳定比例。因此,随着业务增长,我们的浮存金也随之增长。以下数据展示了我们的成长历程:
# Float Growth (in millions)
浮存金增长(百万美元)
Year(年份) | 1970 | 1980 | 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2014 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Float(浮存金) | $39 | $237 | $1,632 | $27,871 | $65,832 | $83,921 |
Further gains in float will be tough to achieve. On the plus side, GEICO and our new commercial insurance operation are almost certain to grow at a good clip. National Indemnity’s reinsurance division, however, is party to a number of run-off contracts whose float drifts downward. If we do in time experience a decline in float, it will be very gradual – at the outside no more than 3% in any year. The nature of our insurance contracts is such that we can never be subject to immediate demands for sums that are large compared to our cash resources. This strength is a key pillar in Berkshire’s economic fortress.
未来浮存金的增长将面临挑战。积极的一面是,GEICO和新的商业保险业务几乎必然以较快速度扩张。然而,国家赔偿保险公司的再保险部门参与了一些终止合同,其浮存金规模正在下降。即使未来出现浮存金减少,也将非常缓慢——每年最多不超过3%。我们的保险合同性质决定了永远不会面临即时的大额现金需求——这是伯克希尔经济堡垒的关键支柱。
If our premiums exceed the total of our expenses and eventual losses, we register an underwriting profit that adds to the investment income our float produces. When such a profit is earned, we enjoy the use of free money – and, better yet, get paid for holding it.
若保费收入超过费用和最终损失总额,我们将实现承保利润——叠加到浮存金带来的投资收益中。当实现承保利润时,我们相当于免费使用资金——甚至还能因持有这些资金而获得报酬。
Unfortunately, the wish of all insurers to achieve this happy result creates intense competition, so vigorous indeed that it sometimes causes the P/C industry as a whole to operate at a significant underwriting loss. This loss, in effect, is what the industry pays to hold its float. Competitive dynamics almost guarantee that the insurance industry, despite the float income all its companies enjoy, will continue its dismal record of earning subnormal returns on tangible net worth as compared to other American businesses. The prolonged period of low interest rates our country is now dealing with causes earnings on float to decrease, thereby exacerbating the profit problems of the industry.
不幸的是,所有保险公司追求这一理想结果导致激烈竞争,使整个财产险行业整体承保亏损。这种亏损本质上是行业为持有浮存金支付的代价。竞争格局几乎注定保险行业将继续表现低迷:尽管享受浮存金收益,但其有形净资产回报率仍将低于美国其他企业。低利率环境持续多年,也导致浮存金收益下降,进一步加剧行业盈利困境。
As noted in the first section of this report, Berkshire has now operated at an underwriting profit for twelve consecutive years, our pre-tax gain for the period having totaled $24 billion. Looking ahead, I believe we will continue to underwrite profitably in most years. Doing so is the daily focus of all of our insurance managers, who know that while float is valuable, its benefits can be drowned by poor underwriting results. That message is given at least lip service by all insurers; at Berkshire it is a religion.
正如本报告首节所述,伯克希尔已连续12年实现承保利润,税前总收益达240亿美元。展望未来,我相信多数年份仍将盈利。所有保险经理每日的核心任务是避免亏损——他们深知浮存金虽有价值,但糟糕的承保结果会吞噬其收益。其他保险公司对此仅口头承诺,而在伯克希尔,这是必须严格遵守的“戒律”。
So how does our float affect intrinsic value? When Berkshire’s book value is calculated, the full amount of our float is deducted as a liability, just as if we had to pay it out tomorrow and could not replenish it. But to think of float as strictly a liability is incorrect; it should instead be viewed as a revolving fund. Daily, we pay old claims and related expenses – a huge $22.7 billion to more than six million claimants in 2014 – and that reduces float. Just as surely, we each day write new business and thereby generate new claims that add to float.
浮存金如何影响内在价值?计算伯克希尔账面价值时,浮存金全额作为负债扣除,仿佛我们必须立即支付且无法补充。但将浮存金视为纯粹负债是错误的,它应被看作循环基金。2014年,我们向超600万索赔人支付了227亿美元旧理赔及费用(减少浮存金);但每天也承保新业务(产生新理赔,增加浮存金)。
If our revolving float is both costless and long-enduring, which I believe it will be, the true value of this liability is dramatically less than the accounting liability. Owing $1 that in effect will never leave the premises – because new business is almost certain to deliver a substitute – is worlds different from owing $1 that will go out the door tomorrow and not be replaced. The two types of liabilities are treated as equals, however, under GAAP.
若循环浮存金既无成本又长期存在,其真实负债价值将远低于会计负债。持有1美元债务却因新业务几乎必然补充而不流出资金,与必须明天支付且无法替换的1美元债务截然不同。但在GAAP准则下,这两类负债被同等对待。
A partial offset to this overstated liability is a $15.5 billion “goodwill” asset that we incurred in buying our insurance companies and that increases book value. In very large part, this goodwill represents the price we paid for the float-generating capabilities of our insurance operations. The cost of the goodwill, however, has no bearing on its true value. For example, if an insurance company sustains large and prolonged underwriting losses, any goodwill asset carried on the books should be deemed valueless, whatever its original cost.
对这一高估负债的部分抵消是我们收购保险公司时产生的155亿美元“商誉”资产——它增加了账面价值。在很大程度上,这一商誉代表了我们为保险业务浮存金生成能力支付的价格。但商誉的成本与其真实价值无关。例如,若保险公司长期承受巨额承保亏损,无论原始成本如何,其账面商誉均应视为毫无价值。
Fortunately, that does not describe Berkshire. Charlie and I believe the true economic value of our insurance goodwill – what we would happily pay for float of similar quality were we to purchase an insurance operation possessing it – to be far in excess of its historic carrying value. Under present accounting rules (with which we agree) this excess value will never be entered on our books. But I can assure you that it’s real. That’s one reason – a huge reason – why we believe Berkshire’s intrinsic business value substantially exceeds its book value.
幸运的是,伯克希尔并非如此。查理和我认为,我们的保险商誉真实经济价值——若需购买具备类似浮存金质量的保险公司时我们愿支付的价格——远高于历史账面价值。根据现行会计准则(我们对此表示认可),这一溢价不会入账。但请相信它真实存在——这是我们认为伯克希尔内在价值远超账面价值的关键原因之一。
# Berkshire’s Insurance Managers and Operations
伯克希尔的保险管理者与运营
Berkshire’s attractive insurance economics exist only because we have some terrific managers running disciplined operations that possess hard-to-replicate business models. Let me tell you about the major units.
伯克希尔保险业务的吸引力源于我们拥有一批卓越的管理者,他们以严明纪律运营着难以复制的商业模式。以下是核心单元介绍:
First by float size is the Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group, managed by Ajit Jain. Ajit insures risks that no one else has the desire or the capital to take on. His operation combines capacity, speed, decisiveness and, most important, brains in a manner unique in the insurance business. Yet he never exposes Berkshire to risks that are inappropriate in relation to our resources.
按浮存金规模最大的单元是伯克希尔哈撒韦再保险集团,由阿吉特·杰恩(Ajit Jain)管理。他承担的都是其他机构不愿或无力承担的风险。他的运营模式在业内独树一帜:兼具资本实力、决策速度、决断力以及最关键的智慧,但从未让伯克希尔承担与其资源不匹配的风险。
Indeed, we are far more conservative in avoiding risk than most large insurers. For example, if the insurance industry should experience a $250 billion loss from some mega-catastrophe – a loss about triple anything it has ever experienced – Berkshire as a whole would likely record a significant profit for the year because of its many streams of earnings. We would also remain awash in cash and be looking for large opportunities in a market that might well have gone into shock. Meanwhile, other major insurers and reinsurers would be far in the red, if not facing insolvency.
事实上,伯克希尔在风险规避上的保守程度远超大多数大型保险公司。例如,若行业因超级巨灾遭遇2500亿美元损失(约为历史最高损失的三倍),伯克希尔整体仍可能实现可观盈利,因为我们有多元化收益来源。我们还将保持充沛的现金储备,并在可能陷入混乱的保险市场中寻找机会。而其他大型保险公司可能深陷赤字,甚至面临破产风险。
Ajit’s underwriting skills are unmatched. His mind, moreover, is an idea factory that is always looking for more lines of business he can add to his current assortment. Last year I told you about his formation of Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance (“BHSI”). This initiative took us into commercial insurance, where we were instantly welcomed by both major insurance brokers and corporate risk managers throughout America. Previously, we had written only a few specialized lines of commercial insurance.
阿吉特的承保技能无人能及。他的思维更是创意工厂,不断探索新业务线。去年我介绍了他创立的伯克希尔哈撒韦专业保险公司(BHSI)。这一举措使我们进入商业保险领域,即刻赢得美国大型保险经纪公司与企业风险管理者的欢迎。此前我们仅涉足少数专业商业保险。
BHSI is led by Peter Eastwood, an experienced underwriter who is widely respected in the insurance world. During 2014, Peter expanded his talented group, moving into both international business and new lines of insurance. We repeat last year’s prediction that BHSI will be a major asset for Berkshire, one that will generate volume in the billions within a few years.
BHSI由经验丰富的承保人彼得·伊斯伍德(Peter Eastwood)领导,他在保险界广受尊敬。2014年,彼得带领团队拓展国际业务并开发新保险产品。我们重申去年的预测:BHSI将成为伯克希尔重要资产,几年内保费规模将达数十亿美元。
# Insurance Operations and Management
保险业务与管理
We have another reinsurance powerhouse in General Re, managed by Tad Montross.
我们的另一大再保险力量是通用再保险(General Re),由泰德·蒙特罗斯(Tad Montross)管理。
At bottom, a sound insurance operation needs to adhere to four disciplines. It must (1) understand all exposures that might cause a policy to incur losses; (2) conservatively assess the likelihood of any exposure actually causing a loss and the probable cost if it does; (3) set a premium that, on average, will deliver a profit after both prospective loss costs and operating expenses are covered; and (4) be willing to walk away if the appropriate premium can’t be obtained.
稳健的保险运营需遵循四大原则:必须(1)理解可能导致保单亏损的所有风险敞口;(2)保守评估任一风险实际引发亏损的概率及可能成本;(3)设定平均而言能在覆盖预期损失和运营成本后产生利润的保费;(4)若无法获得合理保费,必须愿意放弃业务。
Many insurers pass the first three tests and flunk the fourth. They simply can’t turn their back on business that is being eagerly written by their competitors. That old line, “The other guy is doing it, so we must as well,” spells trouble in any business, but in none more so than insurance.
许多保险公司能通过前三项考验,但第四个失败。他们无法拒绝竞争对手热衷的业务。“别人这么做,我们也得做”的老话在任何行业都危险,但在保险业尤为致命。
Tad has observed all four of the insurance commandments, and it shows in his results. General Re’s huge float has been considerably better than cost-free under his leadership, and we expect that, on average, to continue. We are particularly enthusiastic about General Re’s international life reinsurance business, which has grown consistently and profitably since we acquired the company in 1998.
泰德严格遵守了这四大原则,其成果可见于业绩:在他的领导下,通用再保险庞大的浮存金成本远低于零成本,且这一趋势预计将持续。我们尤其看好其国际人寿再保险业务——自1998年收购以来,该业务持续增长并盈利。
It can be remembered that soon after we purchased General Re, it was beset by problems that caused commentators – and me as well, briefly – to believe I had made a huge mistake. That day is long gone. General Re is now a gem.
当然,收购通用再保险初期,它曾因问题频发导致评论家(甚至我也短暂地)认为我犯下重大错误。那段时期早已过去,如今通用再保险已成为一颗明珠。
Finally, there is GEICO, the insurer on which I cut my teeth 64 years ago. GEICO is managed by Tony Nicely, who joined the company at 18 and completed 53 years of service in 2014. Tony became CEO in 1993, and since then the company has been flying. There is no better manager than Tony.
最后是GEICO,这是我64年前初入保险业时接触的公司。GEICO由托尼·尼利(Tony Nicely)管理,他18岁加入公司,在2014年完成53年职业生涯。自1993年担任CEO以来,公司进入腾飞期。没有人比托尼更优秀。
When I was first introduced to GEICO in January 1951, I was blown away by the huge cost advantage the company enjoyed compared to the expenses borne by the giants of the industry. It was clear to me that GEICO would succeed because it deserved to succeed. No one likes to buy auto insurance. Almost everyone, though, likes to drive. The insurance consequently needed is a major expenditure for most families. Savings matter to them – and only a low-cost operation can deliver these. Indeed, at least 40% of the people reading this letter can save money by insuring with GEICO. So stop reading and go to geico.com or call 800-368-2734.
1951年1月首次接触GEICO时,我被其远超行业巨头的成本优势震撼。我确信GEICO的成功是必然的,因为它理应成功。没人喜欢购买汽车保险,但几乎人人都爱开车。因此所需的保险是多数家庭的重大支出,节省费用至关重要——而这只有低成本运营才能实现。至少40%的读者可通过GEICO节省保费。现在就停止阅读,访问geico.com或致电800-368-2734。
# Underwriting Profit and Float by Division
按部门划分的承保利润与浮存金
Insurance Operations(保险业务) | Underwriting Profit (承保利润) 2014 | 2013 | Yearend Float (in millions) (年末浮存金,百万美元) 2014 | 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|
BH Reinsurance(伯克希尔再保险) | $606 | $277 | $42,454 | $37,231 |
General Re(通用再保险) | $1,294 | $1,127 | $19,280 | $20,013 |
GEICO(政府雇员保险公司) | $385 | $283 | $13,569 | $12,566 |
Other Primary(其他基础业务) | $8,618 | $7,430 | $83,921 | $77,240 |
Total(总计) | $2,668 | $1,987 | $83,921 | $77,240 |
- All figures are in millions of dollars.
- 所有数据单位为百万美元。
Key Takeaways(关键结论):
- Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group(伯克希尔再保险集团):承保利润6.06亿美元(2014年),浮存金424.54亿美元。
- General Re(通用再保险):承保利润12.94亿美元,浮存金19.28亿美元。
- GEICO(政府雇员保险公司):承保利润3.85亿美元,浮存金13.57亿美元。
- Other Primary(其他基础业务):浮存金达839.21亿美元,承保利润8,618万美元。
# The Value of Promises in Insurance
保险中承诺的价值
In addition to our three major insurance operations, we own a group of smaller companies, most of them plying their trade in odd corners of the insurance world. In aggregate, these companies are a growing operation that consistently delivers an underwriting profit. Indeed, over the past decade, they have earned $2.95 billion from underwriting while growing their float from $1.7 billion to $8.6 billion. Charlie and I treasure these companies and their managers.
除三大核心保险业务外,我们还拥有一组小型保险公司,多数在保险业的冷门领域运营。整体而言,这一组合是规模庞大、持续增长且盈利丰厚的业务。过去十年间,它们承保利润达29.5亿美元,浮存金从17亿美元增至86亿美元。查理和我珍视这些企业及其管理者。
Simply put, insurance is the sale of promises. The “customer” pays money now; the insurer promises to pay money in the future should certain unwanted events occur.
简单来说,保险就是出售承诺。客户现在付钱,保险公司承诺若特定不利事件发生则支付赔偿。
Sometimes, the promise will not be tested for decades. (Think of life insurance bought by people in their 20s.) Therefore, both the ability and willingness of the insurer to pay, even if economic chaos prevails when payment time arrives, is all-important.
某些承诺可能数十年后才兑现(如年轻人购买的寿险)。因此,即使未来经济动荡,保险公司的偿付能力与意愿至关重要。
Berkshire’s promises have no equal, a fact affirmed in recent years by certain of the world’s largest and most sophisticated P/C insurers, who wished to shed themselves of huge and exceptionally long-lived liabilities. That is, these insurers wished to “cede” these liabilities – most of them potential losses from asbestos claims – to a reinsurer. They needed the right one, though: If a reinsurer fails to pay a loss, the original insurer is still on the hook for it. Choosing a reinsurer, therefore, that down the road proves to be financially strapped or a bad actor threatens the original insurer with getting huge liabilities right back in its lap.
伯克希尔的承诺无与伦比,这一点近年被全球最大、最成熟的财产险公司所验证:他们希望将巨额且长期的负债(如石棉索赔潜在损失)转移给再保险商。但他们必须选对伙伴:若再保险商违约,原公司仍需承担赔偿责任。选择一个未来财务吃紧或声誉不佳的再保险商,等于将巨大负债重新推回原保险公司。
Last year, our premier position in reinsurance was reaffirmed by our writing a policy carrying a $3 billion single premium. I believe that the policy’s size has only been exceeded by our 2007 transaction with Lloyd’s, in which the premium was $7.1 billion.
去年,我们承保一份单一保费30亿美元的再保险合同,再次巩固了行业地位。此前唯一超越这一规模的是2007年与劳合社(Lloyd’s)的71亿美元交易。
In fact, I know of only eight P/C policies in history that had a single premium exceeding $1 billion. And, yes, all eight were written by Berkshire. Certain of these contracts will require us to make substantial payments 50 years or more from now. When major insurers have needed an unquestionable promise that payments of this type will be made, Berkshire has been the party – the only party – to call.
事实上,历史上仅有八份财产险保单的单一保费超过10亿美元,而其中八份均由伯克希尔签署。某些合同将在50年后要求我们支付巨额赔偿。当大型保险公司需要无可置疑的长期承诺时,伯克希尔是唯一可信赖的合作伙伴。
# Berkshire’s Insurance Ecosystem
伯克希尔保险生态
Berkshire’s great managers, premier financial strength and a variety of business models protected by wide moats amount to something unique in the insurance world. This assemblage of strengths is a huge asset for Berkshire shareholders that will only get more valuable with time.
伯克希尔卓越的管理者、顶尖财务实力以及护城河保护的多元商业模式,在保险业内独一无二。这一优势组合是股东的巨大资产,且价值将随时间推移持续增长。
# Regulated, Capital-Intensive Businesses
受监管的重资本业务
We have two major operations, BNSF and Berkshire Hathaway Energy (“BHE”), that share important characteristics distinguishing them from our other businesses. Consequently, we assign them their own section in this letter and split out their combined financial statistics in our GAAP balance sheet and income statement.
我们有两个核心业务——BNSF铁路和伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司(BHE)——它们具备与其他业务显著不同的特征。因此,我们在年报中为其单独设节,并在通用会计准则(GAAP)的资产负债表和利润表中单独列示其合并财务数据。
A key characteristic of both companies is their huge investment in very long-lived, regulated assets, with these partially funded by large amounts of long-term debt that is not guaranteed by Berkshire. Our credit is in fact not needed because each company has earning power that even under terrible economic conditions will far exceed its interest requirements. Last year, for example, BNSF’s interest coverage was more than 8:1. (Our definition of coverage is pre-tax earnings/interest, not EBITDA/interest, a commonly used measure we view as seriously flawed.)
两家公司的关键特征是对长期受监管资产的巨大投资,其中部分资金来自无需伯克希尔担保的长期债务。实际上,我们的信用背书并不需要,因为每家公司的盈利能力即使在极端经济环境下也远超其利息需求。例如去年,BNSF的利息保障倍数超过8:1。(我们定义的保障倍数为税前收益/利息,而非行业常用的EBITDA/利息,我们认为后者存在严重缺陷。)
At BHE, meanwhile, two factors ensure the company’s ability to service its debt under all circumstances. The first is common to all utilities: recession-resistant earnings, which result from these companies offering an essential service on an exclusive basis. The second is enjoyed by few other utilities: a great diversity of earnings streams, which shield us from being seriously harmed by any single regulatory body. Recently, we have further broadened that base through our $3 billion (Canadian) acquisition of AltaLink, an electric transmission system serving 85% of Alberta’s population. This multitude of profit streams, supplemented by the inherent advantage of being owned by a strong parent, has enabled BHE and its utility subsidiaries to significantly lower their cost of debt. This economic fact benefits both us and our customers.
BHE方面,两大因素确保其在任何情况下都能偿债:第一点为所有公用事业共有——因提供独家基础服务而具备抗衰退盈利能力;第二点则鲜有同行具备——盈利来源高度多样化,使我们免受单一监管机构重大影响。最近通过30亿美元收购加拿大电力传输公司AltaLink(服务85%的阿尔伯塔省人口),这一优势进一步扩大。多元利润来源叠加母公司强大背景,使BHE及其公用事业子公司大幅降低债务成本。这一经济现实对股东和客户均有益处。
# Economic Impact of BNSF and BHE
BNSF与BHE的经济影响
Every day, our two subsidiaries power the American economy in major ways:
我们的两家子公司每日以重大方式支撑美国经济运行:
• BNSF carries about 15% (measured by ton-miles) of all inter-city freight, whether it is transported by truck, rail, water, air, or pipeline. Indeed, we move more ton-miles of goods than anyone else, a fact establishing BNSF as the most important artery in our economy’s circulatory system.
• BNSF运输美国城际货运量的约15%(按吨英里计算),无论运输方式为何。事实上,我们运输的货物吨英里量超过任何其他企业,这使得BNSF成为美国经济循环系统中最关键的动脉。
BNSF, like all railroads, also moves its cargo in an extraordinarily fuel-efficient and environmentally friendly way, carrying a ton of freight about 500 miles on a single gallon of diesel fuel. Trucks taking on the same job guzzle about four times as much fuel.
BNSF与所有铁路一样,以极高的燃油效率和环保方式运输货物。一加仑柴油可运送一吨货物约500英里,而卡车完成同样工作需消耗四倍燃料。
• BHE’s utilities serve regulated retail customers in eleven states. No utility company stretches further. In addition, we are a leader in renewables: From a standing start ten years ago, BHE now accounts for 6% of the country’s wind generation capacity and 7% of its solar generation capacity. Beyond these businesses, BHE owns two large pipelines that deliver 8% of our country’s natural gas consumption; the recently-purchased electric transmission operation in Canada; and major electric businesses in the U.K. and Philippines. And the beat goes on: We will continue to buy and build utility operations throughout the world for decades to come.
• BHE的公用事业覆盖美国11个州的受监管零售客户,业务地域跨度无人能及。我们还是可再生能源领域的领军者:十年前从零起步,现拥有全国6%的风电和7%的太阳能发电能力。此外,BHE还拥有两条输送美国8%天然气消费的管道、加拿大新收购的输电业务,以及英国和菲律宾的电力业务。我们的扩张不会停止:未来数十年将持续在全球收购和建设公用事业项目。
BHE can make these investments because it retains all of its earnings. In fact, last year the company retained more dollars of earnings – by far – than any other American electric utility. We and our regulators see this 100% retention policy as an important advantage – one almost certain to distinguish BHE from other utilities for many years to come.
BHE能持续投资的原因在于收益留存。事实上,去年它保留的盈利远超美国其他电力公司。我们与监管机构均认为这一100%留存政策是重要优势,未来多年将使BHE区别于同行。
# Financial Performance of BHE and BNSF
BHE与BNSF财务表现
When BHE completes certain renewables projects that are underway, the company’s renewables portfolio will have cost $15 billion. In addition, we have conventional projects in the works that will also cost many billions. We relish making such commitments as long as they promise reasonable returns – and, on that front, we put a large amount of trust in future regulation.
随着BHE正在进行的可再生能源项目完工,其可再生能源投资组合成本将达150亿美元。此外,传统能源项目也将耗资数百亿美元。只要这些项目能带来合理回报,我们乐于持续投入——而这方面,我们对未来的监管环境抱有充分信任。
Here are the key figures for Berkshire Hathaway Energy and BNSF:
以下是伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司和BNSF的核心财务数据:
# Berkshire Hathaway Energy (89.9% owned)
伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司(持有89.9%)
项目(英文|中文) | 2014年(百万美元) | 2013年(百万美元) | 2012年(百万美元) |
---|---|---|---|
U.K. utilities(英国公用事业) | $527 | $362 | $429 |
Iowa utility(爱荷华州公用事业) | $298 | $230 | $236 |
Nevada utilities(内华达州公用事业) | $549 | $549(数据缺失) | $— |
PacifiCorp (primarily Oregon and Utah)(太平洋公司,主要覆盖俄勒冈与犹他州) | $1,010 | $982 | $737 |
Gas pipelines (Northern Natural and Kern River)(天然气管道,北方天然与凯恩河) | $379 | $385 | $383 |
Home Services(房屋服务) | $139 | $139 | $82 |
Other (net)(其他净项) | $236 | $91 | $91 |
Operating earnings before corporate interest and taxes(税息前运营利润) | $3,138 | $2,102 | $1,958 |
Interest(利息) | $427 | $296 | $314 |
Income taxes(所得税) | $616 | $170 | $172 |
Net earnings(净利润) | $2,095 | $1,636 | $1,472 |
Earnings applicable to Berkshire(归属伯克希尔收益) | $1,882 | $1,470 | $1,323 |
# BNSF
BNSF铁路公司
项目(英文|中文) | 2014年(百万美元) | 2013年(百万美元) | 2012年(百万美元) |
---|---|---|---|
Revenues(收入) | $23,239 | $22,014 | $20,835 |
Operating expenses(运营费用) | $16,237 | $15,357 | $14,835 |
Operating earnings before interest and taxes(税息前运营利润) | $7,002 | $6,657 | $6,000 |
Interest (net)(净利息) | $833 | $729 | $623 |
Income taxes(所得税) | $2,300 | $2,135 | $2,005 |
Net earnings(净利润) | $3,869 | $3,793 | $3,372 |
# Service Challenges and Capital Commitment
服务问题与资本承诺
The story at BNSF, however, as I noted earlier, was not good in 2014, a year in which the railroad disappointed many of its customers. This problem occurred despite the record capital expenditures that BNSF has made in recent years, with those having far exceeded the outlays made by Union Pacific, our principal competitor.
但如我早前所述,BNSF在2014年表现不佳,因服务令许多客户失望。这一问题发生在BNSF近年创纪录的资本支出之后,其规模远超主要竞争对手联合太平洋铁路(Union Pacific)。
The two railroads are of roughly equal size measured by revenues, though we carry considerably more freight (measured either by carloads or ton-miles). But our service problems exceeded Union Pacific’s last year, and we lost market share as a result. Moreover, U.P.’s earnings beat ours by a record amount. Clearly, we have a lot of work to do.
两家铁路公司按收入衡量规模相当,但我们的货运量(按车厢数或吨英里计算)远超对方。然而去年我们的服务问题比联合太平洋铁路更严重,导致市场份额流失。此外,对方盈利差距创历史最大。显然,我们仍需努力。
We are wasting no time: As I also mentioned earlier, we will spend $6 billion in 2015 on improving our railroad’s operation. That will amount to about 26% of estimated revenues (a calculation that serves as the industry’s yardstick). Outlays of this magnitude are largely unheard of among railroads. For us, this percentage compares to our average of 18% in 2009-2013 and to U.P.’s projection for the near future of 16-17%. Our huge investments will soon lead to a system with greater capacity and much better service. Improved profits should follow.
我们毫不拖延:如前所述,2015年将投入60亿美元改善铁路运营。这一金额占预计收入的26%(行业通用评估标准),在铁路业极为罕见。对我们而言,这一比例高于2009-2013年18%的平均水平,也高于联合太平洋铁路未来16-17%的预期。这一巨额投资将很快提升系统容量和客户服务,利润改善可期。
Berkshire’s great managers, premier financial strength and a variety of business models protected by wide moats amount to something unique in the insurance world. This assemblage of strengths is a huge asset for Berkshire shareholders that will only get more valuable with time.
伯克希尔卓越的管理者、顶尖财务实力以及护城河保护的多元商业模式,在保险业内独一无二。这一优势组合是股东的巨大资产,且价值将随时间推移持续增长。
# Financial Statements for Manufacturing & Retail Operations
制造与零售业务财务报表
Our activities in this part of Berkshire cover the waterfront. Let’s look, though, at a summary balance sheet and earnings statement for the entire group.
我们在这个板块的业务覆盖范围广泛。以下是对该集团合并资产负债表和利润表的摘要:
# Balance Sheet 12/31/14 (in millions)
资产负债表(百万美元)
Assets(资产) | 2014年 |
---|---|
Cash and equivalents(现金及等价物) | $5,765 |
Accounts and notes receivable(应收账款和票据) | $8,264 |
Inventory(存货) | $10,236 |
Other current assets(其他流动资产) | $1,117 |
Total current assets(流动资产合计) | $25,382 |
Goodwill and other intangibles(商誉及其他无形资产) | $28,107 |
Fixed assets(固定资产) | $13,806 |
Other assets(其他资产) | $3,793 |
Total assets(资产总计) | $71,088 |
Liabilities and Equity(负债及权益) | 2014年 |
---|---|
Notes payable(应付票据) | $965 |
Other current liabilities(其他流动负债) | $9,734 |
Total current liabilities(流动负债合计) | $10,699 |
Deferred taxes(递延税项) | $3,801 |
Term debt and other liabilities(长期债务及其他负债) | $4,269 |
Non-controlling interests(非控股权益) | $492 |
Berkshire equity(伯克希尔权益) | $51,827 |
Total liabilities and equity(负债及权益总计) | $71,088 |
# Earnings Statement (in millions)
利润表(百万美元)
项目(英文|中文) | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|
Revenues(收入) | $97,689 | $93,472 | $81,432 |
Operating expenses(运营费用) | $90,788 | $87,208 | $75,734 |
Interest expense(利息支出) | $109 | $104 | $112 |
Pre-tax earnings(税前收益) | $6,792 | $6,160 | $5,586 |
Income taxes and non-controlling interests(所得税及非控股权益) | $2,324 | $2,283 | $2,229 |
Net earnings(净利润) | $4,468 | $3,877 | $3,357 |
- Earnings for 2012 and 2013 have been restated to exclude Marmon’s leasing operations, which are now included in the Finance and Financial Products section.
- 2012及2013年收益已重述,排除马蒙集团租赁业务(现归金融及金融产品板块)。
# GAAP vs. Economic Reality
GAAP准则与经济现实
Our income and expense data conforming to GAAP is on page 49. In contrast, the operating expense figures above are non-GAAP and exclude some purchase-accounting items (primarily the amortization of certain intangible assets). We present the data in this manner because Charlie and I believe the adjusted numbers more accurately reflect the true economic expenses and profits of the businesses aggregated in the table than do GAAP figures.
我们的GAAP合规数据见第49页。上述运营费用为非GAAP口径,排除了部分并购会计项目(主要是特定无形资产的摊销)。我们采用此方式呈现,因查理和我认为调整后的数据更能准确反映表中聚合企业的实际经济成本和利润,相比GAAP准则更合理。
I won’t explain all of the adjustments – some are tiny and arcane – but serious investors should understand the disparate nature of intangible assets. Some truly deplete over time, while others in no way lose value. For software, as a big example, amortization charges are very real expenses. The concept of making charges against other intangibles, such as the amortization of customer relationships, however, arises through purchase-accounting rules and clearly does not reflect reality. GAAP accounting draws no distinction between the two types of charges. Both are recorded as expenses when earnings are calculated – even though from an investor’s viewpoint they could not be more different.
无需详述所有调整(部分金额微小且复杂),但严肃投资者应理解无形资产的差异:某些资产价值随时间消耗(如软件摊销为真实成本),而另一些(如客户关系)则不会贬值。GAAP准则未区分两者,均计入费用——但从投资者视角,二者本质截然不同。
In the GAAP-compliant figures we show on page 49, amortization charges of $1.15 billion have been deducted as expenses. We would call about 20% of these “real,” the rest not. The “non-real” charges, once non-existent at Berkshire, have become significant because of the many acquisitions we have made. Non-real amortization charges will almost certainly rise further as we acquire more companies.
在第49页的GAAP合规数据中,摊销费用11.5亿美元已被扣除。其中约20%为“真实费用”,其余为“非真实费用”。过去伯克希尔无此类费用,但因频繁并购,非真实摊销费用显著增长。未来收购更多企业时,这类费用可能进一步增加。
The GAAP-compliant table on page 67 gives you the current status of our intangible assets. We now have $7.4 billion left to amortize, of which $4.1 billion will be charged over the next five years. Eventually, of course, every dollar of non-real costs becomes entirely charged off. When that happens, reported earnings increase even if true earnings are flat.
第67页的GAAP合规表格展示了无形资产现状。目前尚余74亿美元可摊销无形资产,其中41亿美元将在未来五年内摊销。最终,所有“非真实成本”将被冲销。当冲销发生时,即使实际盈利停滞,报告收益也会增长。
Depreciation charges, we want to emphasize, are different: Every dime of depreciation expense we report is a real cost. That’s true, moreover, at most other companies. When CEOs tout EBITDA as a valuation guide, wire them up for a polygraph test.
折旧费用则完全不同:我们报告的每一美分折旧费用都是真实成本。这一点在多数公司同样适用。若CEO以EBITDA作为估值指引,建议对其测谎。
Our public reports of earnings will, of course, continue to conform to GAAP. To embrace reality, however, you should remember to add back most of the amortization charges we report.
我们的公开盈利报告当然将继续符合GAAP准则。但为贴近真实,建议您加回大部分我们报告的摊销费用。
# Performance of Manufacturing, Service, and Retail Businesses
制造、服务与零售业务表现
To get back to our many manufacturing, service and retailing operations, they sell products ranging from lollipops to jet airplanes. Some of this sector’s businesses, measured by earnings on unleveraged net tangible assets, enjoy terrific economics, producing profits that run from 25% after-tax to far more than 100%. Others generate good returns in the area of 12% to 20%.
让我们回到覆盖从棒棒糖到喷气式飞机的制造、服务及零售业务。该板块部分企业基于无杠杆有形净资产的收益率极佳(税后25%-100%以上),另一些企业回报率在12%-20%之间。
A few, however, have very poor returns, the result of some serious mistakes I made in my job of capital allocation. I was not misled: I simply was wrong in my evaluation of the economic dynamics of the company or the industry in which it operates.
少数业务回报率极低,这是我在资本配置上的重大失误。我并非受误导,而是对公司或行业经济特性的判断错误。
Fortunately, my blunders normally involved relatively small acquisitions. Our large buys have generally worked out well and, in a few cases, more than well. I have not, nonetheless, made my last mistake in purchasing either businesses or stocks. Not everything works out as planned.
幸运的是,我的错误多集中在小型收购上。我们的大型收购通常表现良好,部分甚至超出预期。但未来仍会犯错——并非所有投资都能按计划推进。
Viewed as a single entity, the companies in this group are an excellent business. They employed an average of $24 billion of net tangible assets during 2014 and, despite holding large cash reserves and using minimal leverage, earned 18.7% after-tax on that capital.
整体而言,这一板块企业表现优异。2014年平均使用240亿美元有形净资产,尽管持有大量现金且杠杆极低,仍实现18.7%的税后回报率。
Of course, a business with terrific economics can be a bad investment if bought at too high a price. We have paid substantial premiums to net tangible assets for most of our businesses, a cost reflected in the large goodwill figure. Overall, we are getting a decent return on this sector’s capital. Furthermore, the intrinsic value of these businesses exceeds their carrying value by a good margin, and that premium is likely to widen. Even so, the difference between intrinsic value and carrying value in both the insurance and regulated-industry segments is far greater. It is there that the truly big winners reside.
当然,若收购价格过高,即使优质企业也可能成为糟糕投资。我们为多数业务支付了大幅溢价(体现在巨额商誉中),但整体回报率仍合理。此外,这些企业的内在价值已显著高于账面价值,且溢价可能进一步扩大。然而,保险及受监管行业的内在价值与账面价值差异更大,真正的赢家藏身于此。
We have far too many companies in this group to comment on them individually. Moreover, their competitors – both current and potential – read this report. In a few of our businesses we might be disadvantaged if others knew our numbers. In some operations that are not material to evaluating Berkshire, therefore, we only disclose required data. You can find detailed information about many of our operations on pages 97-100.
该板块企业数量过多,无法逐一评论。此外,现有及潜在竞争对手会阅读本报告。若某些业务数据被他人知晓可能影响竞争优势,因此仅披露必要信息。更多细节见第97-100页。
# Finance and Financial Products
金融及金融产品
This year we include in this section Marmon’s very sizable leasing operations, whose wares are railcars, containers and cranes. We have also restated the previous two years to reflect that change. Why have we made it? At one time there was a large minority ownership at Marmon, and I felt it was more understandable to include all of the company’s operations in one place. Today we own virtually 100% of Marmon, which makes me think you will gain more insight into our various businesses if we include Marmon’s leasing operations under this heading. (The figures for the many dozens of Marmon’s other businesses remain in the previous section.)
今年我们将马蒙集团的大型租赁业务(railcars、containers和cranes)纳入本章节,并对前两年数据进行重述以反映这一变化。原因在于:过去我们未全资拥有马蒙,将其所有业务合并列示更合理;如今我们已持有其近100%,分开呈现能更清晰展示各板块。马蒙其他数十家公司的数据仍保留在上一章节。
# Balance Sheet 12/31/14 (in millions)
资产负债表(百万美元)
Assets(资产) | 2014年 |
---|---|
Cash and equivalents(现金及等价物) | $5,765 |
Accounts and notes receivable(应收账款和票据) | $8,264 |
Inventory(存货) | $10,236 |
Other current assets(其他流动资产) | $1,117 |
Total current assets(流动资产合计) | $25,382 |
Goodwill and other intangibles(商誉及其他无形资产) | $28,107 |
Fixed assets(固定资产) | $13,806 |
Other assets(其他资产) | $3,793 |
Total assets(资产总计) | $71,088 |
Liabilities and Equity(负债及权益) | 2014年 |
---|---|
Notes payable(应付票据) | $965 |
Other current liabilities(其他流动负债) | $9,734 |
Total current liabilities(流动负债合计) | $10,699 |
Deferred taxes(递延税项) | $3,801 |
Term debt and other liabilities(长期债务及其他负债) | $4,269 |
Non-controlling interests(非控股权益) | $492 |
Berkshire equity(伯克希尔权益) | $51,827 |
Total liabilities and equity(负债及权益总计) | $71,088 |
# Earnings Statement (in millions)
利润表(百万美元)
项目(英文|中文) | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|
Revenues(收入) | $97,689 | $93,472 | $81,432 |
Operating expenses(运营费用) | $90,788 | $87,208 | $75,734 |
Interest expense(利息支出) | $109 | $104 | $112 |
Pre-tax earnings(税前收益) | $6,792 | $6,160 | $5,586 |
Income taxes and non-controlling interests(所得税及非控股权益) | $2,324 | $2,283 | $2,229 |
Net earnings(净利润) | $4,468 | $3,877 | $3,357 |
- Earnings for 2012 and 2013 have been restated to exclude Marmon’s leasing operations, which are now included in the Finance and Financial Products section.
- 2012及2013年收益已重述,排除马蒙租赁业务(现归金融板块)。
# Leasing Operations: Marmon, CORT and XTRA
租赁业务:马蒙、CORT与XTRA
Our other leasing and rental operations are conducted by CORT (furniture) and XTRA (semi-trailers). These companies are industry leaders and have substantially increased their earnings as the American economy has gained strength. Both companies have invested more money in new equipment than have many of their competitors, and that’s paying off.
其他租赁业务由**CORT(家具租赁)和XTRA(半挂车租赁)**运营。这两家公司是行业领军者,随着美国经济复苏,盈利显著增长。它们在新设备上的投入远超多数竞争对手,这一策略已见成效。
Kevin Clayton has again delivered an industry-leading performance at Clayton Homes, the largest home builder in America. Last year, Clayton sold 30,871 homes, about 45% of the manufactured homes bought by Americans. When we purchased Clayton in 2003 for $1.7 billion, its share was 14%.
凯文·克莱顿(Kevin Clayton)再次带领克莱顿房屋公司(Clayton Homes)取得行业领先地位。去年销售30,871套预制房屋,占全美同类销量的45%。2003年我们以17亿美元收购时,其市场份额仅为14%。
Key to Clayton’s earnings is the company’s $13 billion mortgage portfolio. During the financial panic of 2008-2009, when funding for the industry dried up, Clayton was able to keep lending because of Berkshire’s backing. In fact, we continued to finance competitors’ retail sales as well as our own.
130亿美元的抵押贷款组合是克莱顿盈利的关键。2008-2009年金融危机期间,当行业融资枯竭时,我们因伯克希尔支持持续放贷,甚至为竞争对手提供资金。
Many of Clayton’s borrowers have low incomes and mediocre FICO scores. But thanks to the company’s sensible lending practices, its portfolio performed well during the recession, meaning a very high percentage of our borrowers kept their homes. Our blue-collar borrowers, in many cases, proved much better credit risks than their higher-income brethren.
许多克莱顿借款人收入低且信用评分一般,但因其审慎放贷策略,贷款组合在衰退期间表现优异——多数借款人保住房产。蓝领群体的信用风险远低于高收入阶层。
# Marmon’s Rail Fleet: A Strategic Advantage
马蒙铁路车队:战略优势
At Marmon’s railroad-car operation, lease rates have improved substantially over the past few years. The nature of this business, however, is that only 20% or so of our leases expire annually. Consequently, improved pricing only gradually works its way into our revenue stream. The trend, though, is strong. Our 105,000-car fleet consists largely of tank cars, but only 8% of those transport crude oil.
马蒙铁路车辆业务近年租赁价格显著上涨。但行业特性决定每年仅约20%合同到期,新定价对收入的提升具有滞后性。目前105,000辆铁路车辆中,多数为罐车,其中仅8%运输原油。
One further fact about our rail operation is important for you to know: Unlike many other lessors, we manufacture our own tank cars, about 6,000 of them in a good year. We do not book any profit when we transfer cars from our manufacturing division to our leasing division. Our fleet is consequently placed on our books at a “bargain” price. The difference between that figure and a “retail” price is only slowly reflected in our earnings through smaller annual depreciation charges that we enjoy over the 30-year life of the car. Because of that fact as well as others, Marmon’s rail fleet is worth considerably more than the $5 billion figure at which it is carried on our books.
另一重要事实:我们自主生产罐车(年产6,000辆)。制造部门向租赁部门交付车辆时,我们不确认内部利润。因此,车队账面价值仅为“成本价”。按30年寿命计算,成本价与市场零售价的差额通过每年更低的折旧费用缓慢体现。基于此及其他因素,马蒙铁路车辆的实际价值远超账面记录的50亿美元。
# Earnings Recap for Finance and Financial Products Sector
金融及金融产品板块收益概览
项目(英文|中文) | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|
Berkadia (our 50% share)(伯克迪亚(50%权益)) | $122 | $80 | $35 |
Clayton(克莱顿房屋公司) | $558 | $416 | $255 |
CORT(家具租赁) | $36 | $40 | $42 |
Marmon–Containers and Cranes(马蒙–集装箱与起重机) | $238 | $226 | $246 |
Marmon–Railcars(马蒙–铁路车辆) | $442 | $353 | $299 |
XTRA(半挂车租赁) | $147 | $125 | $106 |
Net financial income*(净金融收入*) | $296 | $324 | $410 |
总计 | $1,839 | $1,564 | $1,393 |
- Excludes capital gains or losses(* 排除资本损益)
# Investments: Top 15 Common Stock Holdings
投资:前15大股票持仓
Below we list our fifteen common stock investments that at yearend had the largest market value.
以下列出我们截至年末市值最大的15项普通股投资:
# Berkshire’s Top Equity Investments
伯克希尔前十大股票投资
Shares(持股数) | Percentage of Company Owned(持股比例) | Company(公司) | Cost(成本,百万美元) | Market (12/31/14)(市值,百万美元) |
---|---|---|---|---|
151,610,700 | 14.8% | American Express Company(美国运通) | $1,287 | $14,106 |
400,000,000 | 9.2% | The Coca-Cola Company(可口可乐) | $1,299 | $16,888 |
18,513,482 | 8.6% | DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc.(达维塔医疗) | $843 | $1,402 |
15,430,586 | 4.5% | Deere & Company(约翰迪尔) | $1,253 | $1,365 |
24,617,939 | 12.1% | Moody’s Corporation(穆迪公司) | $248 | $2,364 |
24,669,778 | 7.8% | International Business Machines Corp.(IBM) | $13,157 | $12,349 |
20,060,390 | 3.0% | The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.(高盛集团) | $1,454 | $4,023 |
52,477,678 | 1.9% | The Procter & Gamble Company(宝洁公司) | $750 | $4,683 |
22,169,930 | 1.7% | Sanofi(赛诺菲制药) | $336 | $2,032 |
96,890,665 | 5.4% | U.S. Bancorp(美国合众银行) | $1,721 | $4,355 |
43,387,980 | 30.0% | USG Corporation(USG公司) | $2,990 | $3,033 |
67,707,544 | 2.1% | Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.(沃尔玛) | $836 | $5,815 |
483,470,853 | 9.4% | Wells Fargo & Company(富国银行) | $3,798 | $26,504 |
Total Common Stocks Carried at Market(按市值计价的普通股总值) | $55,056 | $117,470 |
- This is our actual purchase price and also our tax basis; GAAP “cost” differs in a few cases because of write-ups or write-downs that have been required under GAAP rules.
- 成本为实际购买价格及税务基础;少数情况下,GAAP准则下的“成本”因需按规则调整而不同。
** Excludes shares held by pension funds of Berkshire subsidiaries.
** 排除伯克希尔子公司养老金持有的股份。
*** Held under contract of sale for this amount.
*** 按销售合同持有该金额。
# Bank of America Warrants: A Hidden Gem
美国银行认股权证:隐藏瑰宝
Berkshire has one major equity position that is not included in the table: We can buy 700 million shares of Bank of America at any time prior to September 2021 for $5 billion. At yearend these shares were worth $12.5 billion. We are likely to purchase them just before expiration of our option. In the meantime, it is important for you to realize that Bank of America is, in effect, our fourth largest equity investment – and one we value highly.
伯克希尔有一项重大权益投资未列入上表:我们有权在2021年9月前以50亿美元购买美国银行7亿股普通股。截至年底,这些股份价值125亿美元。我们可能在认股权证到期前行使权利。在此提醒您:美国银行实质上是伯克希尔第四大股票投资,且我们高度看重其价值。
# Investment Mistakes and Lessons
投资失误与教训
Attentive readers will notice that Tesco, which last year appeared in the list of our largest common stock investments, is now absent. An attentive investor, I’m embarrassed to report, would have sold Tesco shares earlier. I made a big mistake with this investment by dawdling.
细心的读者会发现,去年仍列在我们最大股票投资中的英国超市巨头特易购(Tesco)现已退出。惭愧地承认,一位审慎的投资者应早于我们卖出其股份。我因犹豫错失良机,导致重大亏损。
At the end of 2012 we owned 415 million shares of Tesco, then and now the leading food retailer in the U.K. and an important grocer in other countries as well. Our cost for this investment was $2.3 billion, and the market value was a similar amount.
2012年底,我们持有4.15亿股Tesco——当时及现在均为英国最大食品零售商,并在多国拥有业务。该投资成本为23亿美元,市场价值相近。
In 2013, I soured somewhat on the company’s then-management and sold 114 million shares, realizing a profit of $43 million. My leisurely pace in making sales would prove expensive. Charlie calls this sort of behavior “thumb-sucking.” (Considering what my delay cost us, he is being kind.)
2013年,我对管理层失去信心,卖出1.14亿股(获利4,300万美元)。但出手迟缓造成更大损失。查理将此类行为戏称为“吮指犹豫”(考虑到延误代价,他已算委婉)。
During 2014, Tesco’s problems worsened by the month. The company’s market share fell, its margins contracted and accounting problems surfaced. In the world of business, bad news often surfaces serially: You see a cockroach in your kitchen; as the days go by, you meet his relatives.
2014年,Tesco问题逐月恶化:市场份额下滑、利润压缩、会计丑闻曝光。商界常如此:发现一只蟑螂后,你会发现它的家族成员陆续现身。
We sold Tesco shares throughout the year and are now out of the position. (The company, we should mention, has hired new management, and we wish them well.) Our after-tax loss from this investment was $444 million, about 1/5 of 1% of Berkshire’s net worth. In the past 50 years, we have only once realized an investment loss that at the time of sale cost us 2% of our net worth. Twice, we experienced 1% losses. All three of these losses occurred in the 1974-1975 period, when we sold stocks that were very cheap in order to buy others we believed to be even cheaper.
我们全年逐步清仓,现无任何持仓。(公司已更换管理层,我们祝愿其未来顺利。)此投资税后亏损4.44亿美元,仅占伯克希尔净值的0.2%。过去50年仅三次亏损超净值1%:一次为1974-1975年间,因误判市场底部而过早卖出低估股票换购更便宜标的。
# The Risk of Cash vs. Equities
现金与股票的风险对比
Our investment results have been helped by a terrific tailwind. During the 1964-2014 period, the S&P 500 rose from 84 to 2,059, which, with reinvested dividends, generated the overall return of 11,196% shown on page 2. Concurrently, the purchasing power of the dollar declined a staggering 87%. That decrease means that it now takes $1 to buy what could be bought for 13¢ in 1965 (as measured by the Consumer Price Index).
强劲的顺风助力我们投资成功。1964-2014年,标普500指数从84升至2,059,叠加再投资股息,总回报率达11,196%(见第2页)。同期美元购买力暴跌87%,如今需1美元购买1965年13美分的商品(按消费者价格指数)。
There is an important message for investors in that disparate performance between stocks and dollars. Think back to our 2011 annual report, in which we defined investing as “the transfer to others of purchasing power now with the reasoned expectation of receiving more purchasing power – after taxes have been paid on nominal gains – in the future.”
股票与现金的表现差异给投资者深刻启示:回顾2011年信,我们定义投资为“以当前购买力换取未来更多购买力(扣除名义收益税款后)”。
The unconventional, but inescapable, conclusion to be drawn from the past fifty years is that it has been far safer to invest in a diversified collection of American businesses than to invest in securities – Treasuries, for example – whose values have been tied to American currency. That was also true in the preceding half-century, a period including the Great Depression and two world wars. Investors should heed this history. To one degree or another it is almost certain to be repeated during the next century.
过去五十年的非主流结论却是必然:投资多元化的美国企业远比持有绑定美元价值的证券(如国债)安全。这一规律同样适用于包含大萧条与二战的上半个世纪。投资者应铭记历史,未来百年大概率重演。
# Volatility ≠ Risk
波动性 ≠ 风险
Stock prices will always be far more volatile than cash-equivalent holdings. Over the long term, however, currency-denominated instruments are riskier investments – far riskier investments – than widely-diversified stock portfolios that are bought over time and that are owned in a manner invoking only token fees and commissions.
股价短期波动远超现金等价物。但长期来看,绑定货币价值的工具(如国债)比跨周期买入、低费率的广泛分散股票组合更具风险。
That lesson has not customarily been taught in business schools, where volatility is almost universally used as a proxy for risk. Though this pedagogic assumption makes for easy teaching, it is dead wrong: Volatility is far from synonymous with risk. Popular formulas that equate the two terms lead students, investors and CEOs astray.
商学院通常将波动性等同于风险,但这一教学假设大错特错:波动性≠风险。将二者混为一谈的公式误导无数学生、投资者与CEO。
It is true, of course, that owning equities for a day or a week or a year is far riskier (in both nominal and purchasing-power terms) than leaving funds in cash-equivalents. That is relevant to certain investors – say, investment banks – whose viability can be threatened by declines in asset prices and which might be forced to sell securities during depressed markets.
当然,持有股票一天、一周或一年(名义与购买力层面)的风险远超现金等价物。这对某些投资者(如投行)至关重要:资产价格下跌可能威胁其生存,迫使其在熊市出售证券。
Additionally, any party that might have meaningful near-term needs for funds should keep appropriate sums in Treasuries or insured bank deposits. For the great majority of investors, however, who can – and should – invest with a multi-decade horizon, quotational declines are unimportant. Their focus should remain fixed on attaining significant gains in purchasing power over their investing lifetime.
此外,若近期有资金需求,应持有国债或受保银行存款。但对多数可长期投资的股东而言,报价下跌无关紧要,重点应放在投资生涯内实现购买力增长。
For them, a diversified equity portfolio, bought over time, will prove far less risky than dollar-based securities.
对长期投资者而言,跨周期买入的分散化股票组合远比绑定美元的证券更安全。
If the investor, instead, fears price volatility, erroneously viewing it as a measure of risk, he may, ironically, end up doing some very risky things. Recall, if you will, the pundits who six years ago bemoaned falling stock prices and advised investing in “safe” Treasury bills or bank certificates of deposit. People who heeded this sermon are now earning a pittance on sums they had previously expected would finance a pleasant retirement. (The S&P 500 was then below 700; now it is about 2,100.) If not for their fear of meaningless price volatility, these investors could have assured themselves of a good income for life by simply buying a very low-cost index fund whose dividends would trend upward over the years and whose principal would grow as well (with many ups and downs, to be sure).
若投资者将波动性误判为风险,反而会做出危险决策。回想六年前,当标普500指数低于700点时,专家们哀叹股市下跌并推荐“安全”的国库券或银行存单。听从建议的投资者现只能获得微薄收益,错失复利机会(标普500现约2,100点)。若非恐惧无意义的波动,他们本可通过低费率指数基金锁定终身可观收入(股息逐年增长,本金亦随时间增值)。
Investors, of course, can, by their own behavior, make stock ownership highly risky. And many do. Active trading, attempts to “time” market movements, inadequate diversification, the payment of high and unnecessary fees to managers and advisors, and the use of borrowed money can destroy the decent returns that a life-long owner of equities would otherwise enjoy.
投资者自身行为可能让股票投资变得高风险。频繁交易、“择时操作”、分散不足、支付高额顾问费、杠杆操作——这些错误会摧毁长期股东本可获得的合理回报。
Indeed, borrowed money has no place in the investor’s tool kit: Anything can happen anytime in markets. And no advisor, economist, or TV commentator – and definitely not Charlie nor I – can tell you when chaos will occur. Market forecasters will fill your ear but will never fill your wallet.
杠杆操作更是致命错误:市场随时可能发生不可预测的混乱,而任何顾问、经济学家或财经评论员(包括查理和我)都无法预测。市场预测者只会填满你的耳朵,而非钱包。
The commission of the investment sins listed above is not limited to “the little guy.” Huge institutional investors, viewed as a group, have long underperformed the unsophisticated index-fund investor who simply sits tight for decades. A major reason has been fees: Many institutions pay substantial sums to consultants who, in turn, recommend high-fee managers. And that is a fool’s game.
上述投资错误并非散户专利。机构投资者整体长期跑输“傻瓜式”指数基金持有者,核心原因是高昂费用:他们支付大量咨询费,后者推荐高费率的基金经理。这是愚蠢游戏。
There are a few investment managers, of course, who are very good – though in the short run, it’s difficult to determine whether a great record is due to luck or talent. Most advisors, however, are far better at generating high fees than they are at generating high returns. In truth, their core competence is salesmanship. Rather than listen to their siren songs, investors – large and small – should instead read Jack Bogle’s The Little Book of Common Sense Investing.
当然,少数基金经理确实优秀——但短期内难以判断其业绩源于运气还是才华。多数顾问更擅长赚取费用而非回报。他们的核心能力是销售技巧。与其听信花言巧语,不如阅读约翰·博格(Jack Bogle)的《共同基金常识》。
Decades ago, Ben Graham pinpointed the blame for investment failure, using a quote from Shakespeare: “The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves.”
数十年前,本杰明·格雷厄姆借用莎士比亚台词揭示投资失败根源:“布鲁图,错不在天象,而在我们自身。”
# The Annual Meeting
股东大会
The annual meeting will be held on Saturday, May 2nd at the CenturyLink Center. Last year’s attendance of 39,000 set a record, and we expect a further increase this year as we celebrate our Golden Anniversary. Be there when the doors open at 7 a.m.
今年股东大会将于5月2日(周六)在CenturyLink中心举行。去年参会人数达39,000人创纪录,今年庆祝五十周年庆典,预计人数将进一步增长。请于上午7点入场。
# Leadership and Logistics
管理与后勤
Berkshire’s talented Carrie Sova will again be in charge. Carrie joined us six years ago at the age of 24 as a secretary. Then, four years ago, I asked her to take charge of the meeting – a huge undertaking, requiring a multitude of skills – and she jumped at the chance. Carrie is unflappable, ingenious and expert at bringing out the best in the hundreds who work with her. She is aided by our entire home office crew who enjoy pitching in to make the weekend fun and informative for our owners.
伯克希尔才女卡莉·索瓦(Carrie Sova)将再度主持。她24岁加入公司,从秘书起步,四年前我邀请她接管股东大会筹备——这一重任需要多元技能,而她欣然接受。卡莉冷静睿智,善于激发团队潜能,并得到总部全体员工的全力支持,共同打造股东们的欢乐周末。
And, yes, we also try to sell our visiting shareholders our products while they’re here. In fact, this year we will substantially increase the hours available for purchases, opening for business at the CenturyLink on Friday, May 1st, from noon to 5 p.m., as well as the usual 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. on meeting day. So bring a smile to Charlie’s face and do some serious shopping.
当然,我们也会向到访股东推销产品。今年购物时间大幅延长:5月1日(周五)12:00-17:00开放,股东大会日(周六)仍维持7:00-16:00营业。来购物吧,让查理露出笑容!
# Special Events and Attractions
特别活动与亮点
Get up early on Saturday morning. At 6:20 a.m., Norman and Jake, two Texas longhorns each weighing about a ton, will proceed down 10th Street to the CenturyLink. Aboard them will be a couple of our Justin Boot executives, who do double duty as cowboys. Following the steers will be four horses pulling a Wells Fargo stagecoach. Berkshire already markets planes, trains and automobiles. Adding steers and stagecoaches to our portfolio should seal our reputation as America’s all-purpose transportation company.
周六清晨早起!6:20 a.m.,两头德州长角牛诺曼与杰克(各重约一吨)将沿第十街走向CenturyLink中心,牛背上是身兼牛仔的贾斯汀靴业高管。随后四匹马将拖着富国银行马车登场。伯克希尔已涉足飞机、火车与汽车,现在加入牛群与马车,我们将成为美国全能交通公司的代名词。
At about 7:30 a.m. on Saturday, we will have our fourth International Newspaper Tossing Challenge. Our target again will be a Clayton Home porch, located precisely 35 feet from the throwing line. When I was a teenager – in my one brief flirtation with honest labor – I delivered about 500,000 papers. So I think I’m pretty good. Challenge me! Humiliate me! Knock me down a peg! I’ll buy a Dilly Bar for anyone who lands his or her throw closer to the doorstep than I do. The papers will run 36 to 42 pages, and you must fold them yourself (no rubber bands allowed). I’ll present a special prize to the 12-or-under contestant who makes the best toss. Deb Bosanek will be the judge.
周六7:30 a.m.将举行第四届国际报纸投掷挑战赛。目标仍是距投掷线35英尺的Clayton房屋门廊。青少年时期短暂送报经历(约50万份)让我自信擅长此游戏。挑战我吧!击败我!让股神低头!若您投掷比我还接近门廊,我请吃一根Dilly Bar冰淇淋。参赛报纸需自行折叠(禁用橡皮筋),每份36-42页。12岁以下组优胜者将获特别奖,评委为黛布·博萨内克(Deb Bosanek)。
At 8:30 a.m., a new Berkshire movie will be shown. An hour later, we will start the question-and-answer period, which (with a lunch break at CenturyLink’s stands) will last until 3:30 p.m. After a short recess, Charlie and I will convene the annual meeting at 3:45 p.m. This business session typically lasts only a half hour or so.
8:30 a.m.播放伯克希尔新宣传片,9:30 a.m.开始问答环节(含午餐时段),持续至15:30。短暂休会后,15:45召开正式股东大会,约半小时即可结束。
# Shopping and Product Highlights
购物与产品亮点
Your venue for shopping will be the 194,300-square-foot hall that adjoins the meeting and in which products from dozens of Berkshire subsidiaries will be for sale. If you don’t get your shopping done on Friday, slip out while Charlie’s talking on Saturday and binge on our bargains. Check the terrific BNSF railroad layout also. Even though I’m 84, it still excites me.
购物区占地194,300平方英尺,数十家子公司参展。若您周五未完成购物,周六查理讲话时溜出去血拼吧!别错过BNSF铁路模型展台——84岁的我依然为之兴奋。
Last year you did your part as a shopper, and most of our businesses racked up record sales. In a nine-hour period on Saturday, we sold 1,385 pairs of Justin boots (that’s a pair every 23 seconds), 13,440 pounds of See’s candy, 7,276 pairs of Wells Lamont work gloves and 10,000 bottles of Heinz ketchup. Heinz has a new mustard product, so both mustard and ketchup will be available this year. (Buy both!) Now that we are open for business on Friday as well, we expect new records in every precinct.
去年股东们踊跃购物,周六九小时内售出:贾斯汀靴1,385双(每23秒一双),喜氏糖果13,440磅,威尔斯·拉蒙特工作手套7,276双,亨氏番茄酱10,000瓶。今年亨氏新增芥末酱,两种产品同步供应。(请都购买!)因周五也开放购物,今年每个品类都将刷新纪录。
Brooks Running Shoes(布鲁克斯跑鞋)
Our running-shoe company Brooks will again offer a commemorative shoe at the meeting. After purchasing a pair, wear them at our third annual “Berkshire 5K” race starting at 8 a.m. from CenturyLink. Full participation details will be in the Visitor’s Guide sent with your credentials. Entrants will run alongside managers, directors and associates. (Charlie and I, however, will sleep in.)
旗下跑鞋品牌布鲁克斯(Brooks)将推出纪念款。购买后可参加周日清晨8:00起跑的第三届“伯克希尔5公里跑”。完整参赛信息见随入场凭证发送的《游客指南》。您将与管理层同跑。(查理和我将缺席——软糖和花生糖已耗尽精力。)
GEICO折扣服务
A GEICO booth in the shopping area will be staffed by top counselors nationwide. Stop by for a quote. In most cases, GEICO offers an 8% shareholder discount (44 jurisdictions allow this). This discount is non-additive if you qualify for another discount (e.g., for certain groups). Bring existing insurance details and check our price. We can save you real money.
购物区设有GEICO展位,全国顶尖顾问驻场提供报价。多数情况下,股东可享8%专属折扣(44个司法辖区允许此优惠)。若您符合其他折扣条件(如特定团体),此折扣不可叠加。请携带现有保单详情对比价格,省下的钱可用于购买伯克希尔其他产品。
# Shareholder-Only Events
股东专属活动
Borsheims珠宝
At Borsheims, we will have two shareholder-only events:
- Friday, May 1st (18:00-21:00): Cocktail reception.
- Sunday, May 3rd (09:00-16:00): Main gala.
On Saturday, we remain open until 6 p.m. Over recent years, our three-day sales volume has far exceeded December’s (typically a jeweler’s best month). For your convenience, shareholder prices are available from April 27th to May 9th. Present your meeting credential or brokerage statement to qualify.
博舍姆珠宝将为股东举办两场专场活动:
- 5月1日(周五)18:00-21:00鸡尾酒会;
- 5月3日(周日)09:00-16:00主庆典。
周六营业至18:00,近年股东周三天销售额远超十二月(珠宝商旺季)。为方便股东,4月27日至5月9日期间,出示股东凭证或券商证明即可享优惠。
魔术与桥牌
On Sunday, in the mall outside of Borsheims, Dallas magician Norman Beck will perform. Nearby, world bridge experts Bob Hamman and Sharon Osberg will play with shareholders in the afternoon. Don’t play them for money.
周日博舍姆外商场将有达拉斯魔术师诺曼·贝克(Norman Beck)表演。二楼平台将有桥牌大师鲍勃·哈曼(Bob Hamman)和莎伦·奥斯伯格(Sharon Osberg)与股东对弈。请勿下注赌钱。
乒乓球挑战赛
My friend, Ariel Hsing(奥运乒乓球选手), will host a table tennis challenge on Sunday. I met Ariel at nine and never beat her. Now a Princeton sophomore, she represented the U.S. in 2012. Test your skills against her from 1 p.m. Bill Gates and I will lead off and try to soften her up.
好友艾瑞尔·邢(Ariel Hsing)将在周日举办乒乓球挑战赛。我九岁时结识她,至今未赢过。现为普林斯顿大学学生,2012年代表美国参加奥运会。下午1点起挑战她,比尔·盖茨和我将率先出场,试图消耗她的体力。
餐饮优惠
Gorat’s and Piccolo’s will again be open exclusively for shareholders on Sunday, May 3rd, serving until 10 p.m.
- Gorat’s牛排馆:13:00开业,电话 402-551-3733(仅限4月1日预约);
- Piccolo’s餐厅:16:00开业,电话 402-346-2865(建议点巨型根汁汽水冰淇淋,胆小者才选小份)。
这两家我最爱的餐厅将专为股东开放至晚上10点。
# Investment Philosophy and Legacy
投资哲学与传承
Decades ago, Ben Graham pinpointed the blame for investment failure, using a quote from Shakespeare: “The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves.”
数十年前,本杰明·格雷厄姆借用莎士比亚名言揭示投资失败根源:“布鲁图,错不在天象,而在我们自身。”
In the GAAP-compliant figures we show on page 49, amortization charges of $1.15 billion have been deducted as expenses. We would call about 20% of these “real,” the rest not. The “non-real” charges have become significant due to acquisitions. Future amortization charges will climb as we acquire more companies.
第49页的GAAP合规数据中,摊销费用11.5亿美元已被扣除。其中约20%为“真实成本”,其余因频繁并购产生,未来收购更多企业时,这类费用可能进一步增加。
The table on page 67 gives the current status of our intangible assets. We now have $7.4 billion left to amortize, with $4.1 billion expensed over the next five years. Eventually, every dollar of these “assets” will be charged off. When that happens, reported earnings increase even if true earnings are flat.
第67页表格展示无形资产现状。尚余74亿美元可摊销资产,未来五年内冲销41亿美元。最终所有“资产”将被冲销,即使实际盈利停滞,报告收益仍会上升。
# Berkshire’s Economic Moat
伯克希尔护城河
Berkshire’s great managers, premier financial strength and a variety of business models protected by wide moats amount to something unique in the insurance world. This assemblage of strengths is a huge asset for shareholders that will only get more valuable with time.
伯克希尔卓越的管理者、顶尖财务实力以及受护城河保护的多元商业模式,在保险业内独一无二。这一优势组合是股东的巨大资产,且价值将随时间推移持续增长。
# The Annual Meeting
股东大会
The annual meeting will be held on Saturday, May 2nd at the CenturyLink Center. Last year’s attendance of 39,000 set a record, and we expect a further increase this year as we celebrate our Golden Anniversary. Be there when the doors open at 7 a.m.
股东大会将于5月2日(周六)在CenturyLink中心举行。去年40,000人参会创纪录,今年金禧庆典预计人数将进一步增长。请于早上7:00开门时到场。
Berkshire’s talented Carrie Sova will again be in charge. Carrie joined us six years ago at the age of 24 as a secretary. Then, four years ago, I asked her to take charge of the meeting – a huge undertaking, requiring a multitude of skills – and she jumped at the chance. Carrie is unflappable, ingenious and expert at bringing out the best in the hundreds who work with her. She is aided by our entire home office crew who enjoy pitching in to make the weekend fun and informative for our owners.
伯克希尔才华横溢的卡莉·索瓦(Carrie Sova)将再次主持活动。她24岁以秘书身份加入,四年前我邀请她接管这一复杂任务时,她欣然接受。卡莉冷静睿智,善于激发团队潜能。总部团队也全力支持,共同打造股东们的欢乐周末。
And, yes, we also try to sell our visiting shareholders our products while they’re here. In fact, this year we will substantially increase the hours available for purchases, opening for business at the CenturyLink on Friday, May 1st, from noon to 5 p.m. as well as the usual 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. on meeting day. So bring a smile to Charlie’s face and do some serious shopping.
当然,我们也会向股东推销产品。今年购物时间大幅延长:5月1日(周五)12:00-17:00及会议日7:00-16:00开放。请为查理带来笑容,尽情购物。
# Saturday Morning Parade
周六上午游行
Get up early on Saturday morning. At 6:20 a.m., Norman and Jake, two Texas longhorns each weighing about a ton, will proceed down 10th Street to the CenturyLink. Aboard them will be a couple of our Justin Boot executives, who do double duty as cowboys. Following the steers will be four horses pulling a Wells Fargo stagecoach. Berkshire already markets planes, trains and automobiles. Adding steers and stagecoaches to our portfolio should seal our reputation as America’s all-purpose transportation company.
5月2日(周六)6:20 a.m.将上演特色游行:两头重达一吨的得州长角牛“诺曼”和“杰克”将沿10街走向世纪链接中心,背上载着贾斯汀靴业高管(兼职牛仔)。随后四匹马将牵引富国银行驿马车登场。伯克希尔早已拥有飞机、火车与汽车,新增牛群与驿马车将巩固我们“美国全能运输公司”的声誉。
At about 7:30 a.m. on Saturday, we will have our fourth International Newspaper Tossing Challenge. Our target again will be a Clayton Home porch, located precisely 35 feet from the throwing line. When I was a teenager – in my one brief flirtation with honest labor – I tossed about 500,000 papers. So I think I’m pretty good. Challenge me! Humiliate me! Knock me down a peg! I’ll buy a Dilly Bar for anyone who lands his or her throw closer to the doorstep than I do. The papers will run 36 to 42 pages, and you must fold them yourself (no rubber bands allowed). I’ll present a special prize to the 12-or-under contestant who makes the best toss. Deb Bosanek will be the judge.
7:30 a.m.将举行第四届国际报纸投掷挑战赛。目标仍是距投掷线35英尺的克莱顿房屋门廊。青少年时期短暂送报经历(约50万份)让我自信擅长此游戏。挑战我吧!击败我!让股神低头!若参赛者投掷距离比我的更接近门廊,我将赠送Dilly冰淇淋。参赛报纸需自行折叠(禁用橡皮筋),每份36-42页。黛布·博萨内克(Deb Bosanek)担任评委,为12岁以下优胜者颁奖。
At 8:30 a.m., a new Berkshire movie will be shown. An hour later, we will start the question-and-answer period, which (with a break for lunch at CenturyLink’s stands) will last until 3:30 p.m. After a short recess, Charlie and I will convene the annual meeting at 3:45 p.m. This business session typically lasts only a half hour or so.
8:30 a.m.播放伯克希尔新宣传片,9:30 a.m.开始问答环节(含午餐时段),持续至15:30。短暂休会后,15:45召开正式股东大会,约半小时即可结束。
# Shopping and Exhibits
购物与展览
Your venue for shopping will be the 194,300-square-foot hall that adjoins the meeting and in which products from dozens of Berkshire subsidiaries will be for sale. If you don’t get your shopping done on Friday, slip out while Charlie’s talking on Saturday and binge on our bargains. Check the terrific BNSF railroad layout also. Even though I’m 84, it still excites me.
购物区占地194,300平方英尺,数十家子公司参展。若您周五未完成购物,周六中场休息时可尽情扫货。别错过BNSF铁路模型展台——尽管我已84岁,仍对此感到兴奋。
Last year you did your part as a shopper, and most of our businesses racked up record sales. In a nine-hour period on Saturday, we sold 1,385 pairs of Justin boots (that’s a pair every 23 seconds), 13,440 pounds of See’s candy, 7,276 pairs of Wells Lamont work gloves and 10,000 bottles of Heinz ketchup. Heinz has a new mustard product, so both mustard and ketchup will be available this year. (Buy both!) Now that we are open for business on Friday as well, we expect new records in every precinct.
去年您作为购物达人创下销售纪录:周六九小时内售出1,385双贾斯汀靴(每23秒一双)、13,440磅See’s糖果、7,276副威尔士劳姆手套及10,000瓶亨氏番茄酱。今年亨氏新增芥末酱,两种调味品同步供应。(请一起购买!)因周五也开放购物,今年各品类销售有望破纪录。
Brooks, our running-shoe company, will again have a special commemorative shoe to offer at the meeting. After you purchase a pair, wear them the next day at our third annual “Berkshire 5K,” an 8 a.m. race starting at the CenturyLink. Full details for participating will be included in the Visitor’s Guide that will be sent to you with your meeting credentials. Entrants in the race will find themselves running alongside many of Berkshire’s managers, directors and associates. (Charlie and I, however, will sleep in.)
旗下跑鞋品牌Brooks将推出纪念款。购买后可参加第三届伯克希尔5公里跑(次日清晨8:00开跑)。完整参赛信息见随入场凭证发送的《游客指南》,您将与众多伯克希尔管理者、董事及合伙人同跑。(查理和我将缺席——我们选择睡懒觉。)
A GEICO booth in the shopping area will be staffed by a number of the company’s top counselors from around the country. Stop by for a quote. In most cases, GEICO will be able to give you a shareholder discount (usually 8%). This special offer is permitted by 44 of the 51 jurisdictions in which we operate. (One supplemental point: The discount is not additive if you qualify for another discount, such as that available to certain groups.) Bring the details of your existing insurance and check out our price. We can save many of you real money.
GEICO展位将由全国顶尖顾问驻场提供报价服务。多数情况下,股东可享8%专属折扣(44个司法辖区允许此优惠)。若您符合其他折扣条件(如特定团体),此折扣不可叠加。(请携带现有保单详情对比价格,省下的钱可用于购买伯克希尔其他产品。)
Be sure to visit the Bookworm. It will carry about 35 books and DVDs, among them a couple of new titles. Last year, many shareholders purchased Max Olson’s compilation of Berkshire letters going back to 1965, and he has produced an updated edition for the meeting. We also expect to be selling an inexpensive book commemorating our fifty years. It’s currently a work in process, but I expect it to contain a wide variety of historical material, including documents from the 19th Century.
务必参观书虫展台,将展售约35本书籍及DVD,包括数本新书。去年股东热购麦克斯·奥尔森(Max Olson)编纂的1965年以来的伯克希尔信件集新版。我们还将推出平价50周年纪念书(正在制作中),预计将收录大量历史资料,包括19世纪文献。
# Travel and Accommodation Tips
差旅与住宿建议
An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the credential you will need for admission to both the meeting and other events. Airlines have sometimes jacked up prices for the Berkshire weekend. If you are coming from far away, compare the cost of flying to Kansas City vs. Omaha. The drive between the two cities is about 2¹⁄₂ hours, and it may be that Kansas City can save you significant money, particularly if you had planned to rent a car in Omaha. The savings for a couple could run to $1,000 or more. Spend that money with us.
随代理材料附上的附件说明如何获取参会及参与其他活动的凭证。航空公司常在伯克希尔周末提高票价。若您远道而来,建议比较飞往堪萨斯城与奥马哈的成本。两城车程约2.5小时,堪萨斯城可能为您节省数百至千美元费用(尤其计划在奥马哈租车者)。省下的钱,请用于支持伯克希尔。
# Nebraska Furniture Mart: Berkshire Weekend Discount
内布拉斯加家具商城:股东周折扣
At Nebraska Furniture Mart(内布拉斯加家具商城), located on a 77-acre site on 72nd Street between Dodge and Pacific, we will again be having “Berkshire Weekend” discount pricing. Last year in the week surrounding the meeting, the store did a record $40,481,817 of business. (An average week for NFM’s Omaha store is about $9 million.)
位于多奇与太平洋街之间72街占地77英亩的内布拉斯加家具商城(NFM)将推出“股东周”专属折扣。去年会议周期间销售额创纪录达40,481,817美元(商城奥马哈店平日周销量约900万美元)。
To obtain the Berkshire discount at NFM, you must make your purchases between Tuesday, April 28th and Monday, May 4th inclusive, and also present your meeting credential. The period’s special pricing will even apply to the products of several prestigious manufacturers that normally have ironclad rules against discounting but which, in the spirit of our shareholder weekend, have made an exception for you. We appreciate their cooperation.
享受NFM折扣需在**4月28日(周二)至5月4日(周一)**购物并出示股东凭证。折扣覆盖多个通常禁止打折的高端品牌,感谢合作方特例支持。
NFM is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. Monday through Friday, 10 a.m. to 9:30 p.m. on Saturday and 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Sunday. From 5:30 p.m. to 8 p.m. on Saturday, NFM is having a picnic to which you are all invited.
股东周期间商城营业时间:周一至周五10:00-21:00,周六10:00-21:30,周日10:00-20:00。周六17:30-20:00将举办股东专属野餐会,诚邀您参与。
# Borsheims: Shareholder-Only Events
博舍姆珠宝:股东专场活动
At Borsheims, we will again have two shareholder-only events. The first will be a cocktail reception from 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. on Friday, May 1st. The second, the main gala, will be held on Sunday, May 3rd, from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. On Saturday, we will remain open until 6 p.m. In recent years, our three-day volume has far exceeded our sales in all of December, normally a jeweler’s best month.
博舍姆珠宝(Borsheims)将为股东举办两场专场活动:5月1日(周五)18:00-21:00鸡尾酒会,5月3日(周日)09:00-16:00主庆典。周六营业延长至18:00。近年来股东周三天销售额已超12月全月(珠宝商传统旺季)。
We will have huge crowds at Borsheims throughout the weekend. For your convenience, therefore, shareholder prices will be available from Monday, April 27th through Saturday, May 9th. During that period, please identify yourself as a shareholder either by presenting your meeting credential or a brokerage statement showing you own our stock.
周末博舍姆将人流如潮,为此**股东优惠提前至4月27日(周一)至5月9日(周六)**有效。请出示股东凭证或券商持股证明以享优惠。
On Sunday, in the mall outside of Borsheims, Norman Beck, a remarkable magician from Dallas, will bewilder onlookers. Additionally, we will have Bob Hamman and Sharon Osberg, two of the world’s top bridge experts, available to play bridge with our shareholders on Sunday afternoon. Don’t play them for money.
周日,博舍姆外商场将有达拉斯魔术师诺曼·贝克(Norman Beck)表演。二楼平台将有桥牌大师鲍勃·哈曼(Bob Hamman)与莎伦·奥斯伯格(Sharon Osberg)与股东对弈桥牌(切记仅限友谊赛)。
My friend, Ariel Hsing, will be in the mall as well on Sunday, taking on challengers at table tennis. I met Ariel when she was nine and even then I was unable to score a point against her. Now, she’s a junior at Princeton, having already represented the United States in the 2012 Olympics. If you don’t mind embarrassing yourself, test your skills against her, beginning at 1 p.m. Bill Gates and I will lead off and try to soften her up.
周日,好友艾瑞尔·邢(Ariel Hsing)将在商场挑战乒乓球爱好者。我九岁时认识她,当时已无法击败她。如今她是普林斯顿大学学生,曾在2012年代表美国参加奥运会。若您不介意被碾压,下午1点起可挑战她。比尔·盖茨和我将率先出场,试图消耗她的体力。
Gorat’s and Piccolo’s will again be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, May 3rd. Both will be serving until 10 p.m., with Gorat’s opening at 1 p.m. and Piccolo’s opening at 4 p.m. These restaurants are my favorites, and I will eat at both of them on Sunday evening. Remember: To make a reservation at Gorat’s, call 402-551-3733 on April 1st (but not before); for Piccolo’s, call 402-346-2865. At Piccolo’s, order a giant root beer float for dessert. Only sissies get the small one.
戈拉特牛排馆(Gorat’s)与皮科洛餐厅(Piccolo’s)将在5月3日(周日)13:00-22:00专为股东开放。戈拉特13:00开餐,皮科洛16:00开餐。这两家是我最爱餐厅,周日晚间将光临。戈拉特订位请于4月1日拨打402-551-3733(不可提前)。皮科洛订位请拨打402-346-2865。皮科洛甜点推荐大杯根汁啤酒浮冰(小杯是懦夫的选择)。
# Question-and-Answer Panelists and Audience Participation
问答主持人与观众互动
We will again have the same three financial journalists lead the question-and-answer period at the meeting, asking Charlie and me questions that shareholders have submitted to them by e-mail. The journalists and their e-mail addresses are:
我们将延续传统,由以下三位金融记者主持问答环节,转达股东通过邮件提交的问题:
Carol Loomis, who retired last year after sixty years at Fortune, but remains the expert on business and financial matters, and who may be e-mailed at loomisbrk@gmail.com;
- 卡罗尔·卢米斯(Carol Loomis),在《财富》杂志工作60年后退休,仍是商业与金融领域权威,邮箱:loomisbrk@gmail.com;
Becky Quick, of CNBC, at BerkshireQuestions@cnbc.com;
- 贝基·奎克(Becky Quick),CNBC记者,邮箱:BerkshireQuestions@cnbc.com;
Andrew Ross Sorkin, of The New York Times, at arsorkin@nytimes.com.
- 安德鲁·罗斯·索金(Andrew Ross Sorkin),《纽约时报》记者,邮箱:arsorkin@nytimes.com。
From the questions submitted, each journalist will choose the six he or she decides are the most interesting and important. The journalists have told me your question has the best chance of being selected if you keep it concise, avoid sending it in at the last moment, make it Berkshire-related and include no more than two questions in any e-mail you send them.
每位记者将从提交问题中精选6个最有趣且重要者。记者们建议:问题简洁、提前提交、聚焦伯克希尔、每封邮件限提2个问题,并注明若问题被选中是否希望提及您的姓名。
We will also have a panel of three analysts who follow Berkshire. This year the insurance specialist will be Gary Ransom of Dowling & Partners. Questions that deal with our non-insurance operations will come from Jonathan Brandt of Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb and Gregg Warren of Morningstar. Our hope is that the analysts and journalists will ask questions that add to our owners’ understanding and knowledge of their investment.
此外,三位分析师也将提出问题:保险领域由道林伙伴公司的加里·兰萨姆(Gary Ransom)负责,非保险业务由鲁安·卡尼夫与高富的乔纳森·布兰特(Jonathan Brandt)及晨星公司的格雷格·沃伦(Gregg Warren)提问。我们希望他们的问题能深化股东对投资的理解。
Neither Charlie nor I will get so much as a clue about the questions headed our way. Some will be tough, for sure, and that’s the way we like it. All told we expect at least 54 questions, which will allow for six from each analyst and journalist and for 18 from the audience. (Last year we had 62 in total.) The questioners from the audience will be chosen by means of 11 drawings that will take place at 8:15 a.m. on the morning of the annual meeting. Each of the 11 microphones installed in the arena and main overflow room will host a drawing.
查理和我都不会提前获知任何问题。部分提问必然尖锐,这正是我们所期待的。总计预计至少回答54个问题(分析师与记者各6个,观众18个;去年共62个)。现场观众提问者通过11场抽奖选出,抽奖将于股东大会当日上午8:15举行,主会场及溢出会场的11个麦克风区各抽取1人。
# Shareholder Information Access and Fairness
股东信息获取与公平性
While I’m on the subject of our owners’ gaining knowledge, let me remind you that Charlie and I believe all shareholders should simultaneously have access to new information that Berkshire releases and should also have adequate time to analyze it. That’s why we try to issue financial data late on Fridays or early on Saturdays and why our annual meeting is always held on a Saturday. We do not talk one-on-one to large institutional investors or analysts, treating them instead as we do all other shareholders.
最后重申信息披露原则:查理和我坚信所有股东应同步获取伯克希尔发布的信息,且在交易前有充足时间消化分析。因此财务数据总在周五晚或周六早发布,股东大会定于周六举行。我们从不单独与机构投资者或分析师私下沟通,视所有股东平等。
# Travel and Accommodation: Airbnb Recommendation
差旅与住宿:Airbnb建议
We get terrific help at meeting time from literally thousands of Omaha residents and businesses who want you to enjoy yourselves. This year, because we expect record attendance, we have worried about a shortage of hotel rooms. To deal with that possible problem, Airbnb is making a special effort to obtain listings for the period around meeting time and is likely to have a wide array of accommodations to offer. Airbnb’s services may be especially helpful to shareholders who expect to spend only a single night in Omaha and are aware that last year a few hotels required guests to pay for a minimum of three nights. That gets expensive. Those people on a tight budget should check the Airbnb website.
成千上万的奥马哈居民与企业为股东提供支持。今年因预计参会人数破纪录,我们担忧酒店房源不足。为此,Airbnb已加大房源供给,尤其适合仅需住宿一晚的股东(去年部分酒店要求至少预订三晚)。预算有限者请优先考虑Airbnb平台。
# Recognition of Berkshire’s Team
致敬伯克希尔团队
For good reason, I regularly extol the accomplishments of our operating managers. They are truly All-Stars who run their businesses as if they were the only asset owned by their families. I believe the mindset of our managers also to be as shareholder-oriented as can be found in the universe of large publicly-owned companies. Most of our managers have no financial need to work. The joy of hitting business “home runs” means as much to them as their paycheck.
我常公开赞扬旗下管理者成就。他们是真正的全明星,将业务视为家族唯一资产运营。我认为伯克希尔管理层比任何上市公司更以股东利益为重。多数管理者无需为生计工作,“打出商业全垒打”的成就感对他们而言与薪酬同样重要。
Equally important, however, are the 24 men and women who work with me at our corporate office. This group efficiently deals with a multitude of SEC and other regulatory requirements, files a 24,100-page Federal income tax return and oversees the filing of 3,400 state tax returns, responds to countless shareholder and media inquiries, gets out the annual report, prepares for the country’s largest annual meeting, coordinates the Board’s activities – and the list goes on and on.
同样重要的是与我共事的24名总部员工。他们高效处理SEC监管要求、提交24,100页联邦税申报及3,400份州税申报、回应股东与媒体咨询、发布年报、筹备全美最大规模股东大会、协调董事会活动——工作清单长到难以穷尽。
They handle all of these business tasks cheerfully and with unbelievable efficiency, making my life easy and pleasant. Their efforts go beyond activities strictly related to Berkshire: Last year they arranged a Q&A day with students from 40 universities (selected from 200 applicants). They also manage my travel, handle requests, and even get me Heinz-ketchup-drenched burgers for lunch. No CEO has it better; I truly feel like tap-dancing to work every day.
他们以无比高效与乐观完成所有任务,让我的工作轻松愉快。去年协助安排40所高校学生来奥马哈与我交流(从200所申请中甄选)。他们处理各类请求、安排行程,甚至为我准备淋满亨氏番茄酱的午餐汉堡。没有CEO的工作能比这更优越。
Last year, for the annual report, we dropped our 48-year-old “no pictures” policy – who says I’m not flexible? – and ran a photo of our home-office crew at their Christmas lunch. This year, on the facing page, you’ll see the updated version of this picture. However they dress, their performance is mind-boggling.
去年年报,我们打破48年“无照片”惯例(谁说我不灵活?),展示总部团队圣诞午餐合影。今年,您将在下一页看到更新版合影。无论着装如何,他们的表现始终令人惊叹。
Come meet them on May 2nd and enjoy our Woodstock for Capitalists.
5月2日,请亲临资本主义的“伍德斯托克音乐节”。
February 27, 2015
Warren E. Buffett
Chairman of the Board